Coming off a tough loss in Philadelphia, the Pittsburgh Steelers are prepping for his or her rematch in opposition to the Baltimore Ravens. With this, and two AFC North matchups remaining, I wished to revisit necessary information factors specializing in the division. First, the 2024 divisional common season information by Week 15:
Pittsburgh has a one-game edge on their subsequent opponent, versus being tied with the Ravens in my final AFC North Information Factors By means of Week 10. Substantial edge on the remainder of the division. Cincinnati is making up some floor, although, and the Browns are Browning.
Let’s dive into some information, with anticipated factors added (EPA = anticipated factors earlier than and after every play) for the AFC North offenses (OEPA) by week:
Baltimore is clearly the very best offense within the division and ranks second general in EPA in totality within the NFL. Whereas that’s true, Pittsburgh and Baltimore matchups are a unique, low-scoring animal. The Ravens lowest mark of 2024 was within the first contest in opposition to Pittsburgh, their solely mark clearly beneath common in all of 2024. Wow.
That results in optimism for the Steelers clinching the AFC North in opposition to them in Week 16, however it might be insane to imagine that prevalence with what they’ve carried out in 2024. A number of Ravens performances on offense prime AFC North together with final recreation, and a season-best 0.47 OEPA in opposition to Tampa Bay in Week 7, which ranks fourth in all of 2024.
Compared, Pittsburgh has been all around the map, notably since their bye week together with an unlucky two-game skid. The Steelers -0.28 OEPA in opposition to Philadelphia final recreation was their worst of 2024. The one different quantity that was shut (-0.25) got here Week 11 in opposition to Baltimore, re-emphasizing that these video games buck seasonal stat traits in heated rivalries, and hopefully it transpires equally for the season sweep.
Pittsburgh’s season finale can be in division, in opposition to the Bengals. They’re a scary offense as effectively. Extra unstable early within the season, after they posted their finest 0.37 OEPA Week 3, and worst in Week 7 (-0.19) in opposition to Cleveland’s protection. Cincinnati has been steadier their final six video games, on a constructive incline as they’ve improved their document. The exception was their Week 13 loss in opposition to Pittsburgh (0.0).
Cleveland, whoof. Solely 5 constructive OEPA numbers, and most have been barely above zero. Finest was 0.18 in Week 8 throughout their win in opposition to Baltimore, and consists of the Week 12 win on Pittsburgh (0.01). The rematch went Pittsburgh’s means, when the Browns had a minus-0.16 OEPA. Final recreation was clearly their worst of 2024, a -0.52 OEPA that’s third worst in soccer, in opposition to the two-time reigning champs in Kansas Metropolis.
That crew is the out of division opponent left on Pittsburgh’s schedule, a frightening job on a brief week following the Ravens. Hopefully Pittsburgh fares significantly better in opposition to the very best crew in soccer (13-1).
Listed below are defensive EPA outcomes (DEPA):
Up and down outcomes for each AFC North crew. Baltimore’s protection has been taking part in higher as of late, after principally beneath the road marks of their first 10 video games. Their finest -0.25 DEPA got here in opposition to in Week 11 in opposition to Pittsburgh, so one other instance of how the familiarity within the division bucking general season traits. The Ravens are additionally coming off a -0.23 final recreation, pointing to some current enhancements Pittsburgh are set to face.
The Steelers protection posted their finest marks the primary six weeks of 2024, together with the opener being their finest -0.35 DEPA, the very best mark of any AFC North protection this season and Twenty third out of 448 video games this season. Much less elite for the reason that Week 9 bye, and Week 15 in opposition to Philly was a crew worst 0.2 DEPA. Discouraging in opposition to a playoff crew that Pittsburgh is prepping to play. The remainder of the 12 months, together with a lot greater marks for the reason that bye in opposition to some powerful groups is room for optimism the ultimate three video games.
Cincinnati has had among the worst defensive marks within the NFL, as – 0.52 DEPA in Week 3 was second-worst defensive outing of 2024. The Bengals have had 5 outings beneath 0.25, yikes. Included in that was Week 13 (0.28 DEPA) in opposition to Pittsburgh, when the Steelers received the 44-38 shoot out. It will likely be attention-grabbing to see if the finale rematch is significant, and if that’s the case, the Steelers hopefully ending the season with a robust outing on offense.
Cleveland is unquestionably not as sturdy as final season. Even break up of seven above and beneath the road defensive outings. Their better of 2024 was -0.19 DEPA was Week 7 in opposition to Cincinnati, and worst 0.31 got here Week 11. Comparatively, above the road in each Pittsburgh matchups (-0.04, -0.12), with their higher mark coming within the Steelers revenge win.
Subsequent, success charges for NFL offenses and defenses from nflfastR for league-wide and season common context, which is outlined as EPA > 0 for every play:
Baltimore is the one above the imply crew on each side of the ball. They’re the NFL’s finest 49.7 offensive success illustrates their scary skills, together with a sixth ranked 40.7 defensive success price. Pittsburgh’s marks are stale as compared, with a Thirteenth rank on protection (43.2), and notably Twenty third rank on offense (40.8). Regarding, though each offenses have been restricted first go spherical, and Pittsburgh’s current struggles Week 15.
We all know Cincinnati’s offense is their power, and the success stat actually paints the image of their 2024 season, as 46.0 offensive success racks twelfth, however their suspect 47.7 defensive success lands thirtieth. Cleveland’s on the opposite finish of the spectrum: 40.2 defensive success (fifth) and dead-last 38.0 offensive success.
Now for a factors view of offenses and defenses:
Pittsburgh is the one AFC North squad above the imply in every. Notably, a sixth-ranked protection at 18.9 PPG, and a much-improved offense from 2023, tying for tenth at 24 PPG. Being prime 10 in each is encouraging, however they should get nearer to season averages than their most up-to-date 27-13 loss. Hopefully that begins in opposition to Baltimore on Saturday, who’ve 29.9 PPG on offense (third) and 23.7 PPG on protection (Twenty second).
The final Week 11 recreation was an 18-16 Pittsburgh victory, on six discipline objectives from Ok Chris Boswell. Rating extra factors Steelers.
Cincinnati lands equally to the earlier view, with 28.5 PPG on offense (fifth), however a second-worst 27.6 PPG on protection. Would like to see Pittsburgh restrict their offense extra within the rematch, closing the season with some optimism to take action within the postseason versus their final Week 15 outing. Cleveland is the one divisional crew beneath common in each: 17.1 offense (thirtieth) and 25.4 protection (twenty sixth).
One other key stat is turnovers:
The Steelers lead the NFL with 30 turnovers on protection. It’s a key part to their crew success and was an element within the Ravens matchup with three takeaways. That was additionally true on offense, profitable the turnover battle with just one offensive turnover. Pittsburgh sometimes wins the turnover battle, with 12 turnovers in 2024 (T-sixth).
It’s paramount in shut divisional slugfests and hopefully reoccurs to get again within the win column enroute to an AFC North title.
The Ravens have simply 10 offensive turnovers on the 12 months (fourth), better of the 4 centered groups, and factors to the impressing three the Pittsburgh protection created on them Week 11. Their protection is in direction of the underside of the league with 12, tying for twenty fifth. The Bengals higher mark is on protection for the primary time, with 20 takeaways (T-ninth), and just under common 18 giveaways (T-Seventeenth).
Merely dangerous for the Browns, who’ve 27 offensive giveaways (thirtieth) and solely 11 takeaways (T-Twenty eighth), nearly a 3rd of the Steelers. Wow.
Clearest Steelers’ benefit on paper, who tie for the very best turnover differential within the NFL (18), in comparison with the remainder of the North: Baltimore – 2 (T-Thirteenth), Cincinnati – 2 (T-Thirteenth), Cleveland – minus-16 (thirty first).
Listed below are groups’ explosive performs:
The complete division have been weak at permitting explosive performs on protection. Of that group, Pittsburgh has the slight edge. 51 explosives allowed on protection ties for twentieth, proper round common for many NFL groups so far. Right here’s what the remainder of the division seems like: Bengals – 53 (T-Twenty second), Ravens – 55 (twenty fifth), Browns 66 (thirty first).
Each Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have trended poorly the final 5 video games, after being effectively above common beforehand. The other is true for Baltimore, tying for final by Week 10, and shortly shifting up a lot nearer to league common. This, paired with their NFL finest 69 offensive explosive performs might make it a tough factor for Pittsburgh in Week 16.
The Steelers are second finest within the division on offense, with 59 explosive offensive performs, rating eighth league-wide. Only one explosive play in opposition to Philadelphia was a discouraging current pattern, and hopefully QB Russell Wilson and firm fare higher in opposition to a Baltimore protection that has made nice strides on this regard.
Close to the imply are the Bengals with 50 explosive performs on offense (Seventeenth). That has climbed a bit in current weeks. Whereas Cleveland is effectively beneath common, the identical can be true. thirty first in Week 10, now tied for twenty sixth with 41 explosives on offense.
Now third down conversions:
Clear strengths on one aspect of the ball leap out for every AFC North crew. The Ravens and Bengals have been nice on offense: 48.7 (second) and 47.5 (fourth). Encouragingly, Pittsburgh’s power has been on protection (35.1, seventh), and can should be sturdy right here in opposition to these two remaining opponents. Bucking a current downtrend in opposition to Philly (58.8) would ease that painful providing.
Cleveland can be above common on protection (36.2), rating ninth within the NFL. Pittsburgh’s decrease mark is on offense, with a 38.9 3DCR, rating Thirteenth. This was one other abysmal a part of final recreation, together with 5 three-and-outs to begin the sport, and going 30-percent in complete. Can’t rating when you don’t have the ball, and excessive on my radar on each side of the ball the remainder of the season and playoffs.
Optimistically, the offense will look higher in opposition to two beneath common AFC North defenses: Baltimore – 41.3 (Twenty third). Cincinnati – 44.4 (T-Twenty seventh).
Right here’s purple zone numbers:
The Steelers struggling purple zone offense jumps out straight away, with a forty five.8 purple zone TD price that ranks a lowly thirty first within the NFL. This in fact limits their ceiling on the scoreboard, hopefully capable of enhance in opposition to common to beneath purple zone defenses within the division the remainder of the way in which: Ravens – 55.8 (sixteenth). Bengals – 69.6 (thirty first). The Steelers have been the very best purple zone protection in division, however solely a bit above league common: 53.2 (14th).
Baltimore has the NFL’s finest purple zone offense, with a 74.1 TD price. That may be a whopping 28.3-percent higher than Pittsburgh, staggering. Once more, the matchup all the time tends to be low scoring, however the greater image of the postseason illustrates an space the Steelers must flip the script in a rush in the event that they wish to stick round as an alternative of a fast bouncing.
Cincinnati’s offense is comfortably above common as soon as once more: 68.1 (fourth). So, Pittsburgh’s remaining AFC North opponents are prime 5 purple zone scoring offenses. Cleveland lands close to the imply: 57.1 offense (Thirteenth), 59.1 protection (nineteenth).
And a favourite right here at Steelers Depot, Adjusted Internet Yards per Try (ANY/A), which gauges success of passing offenses and defenses:
One other encouraging stability for Pittsburgh, the one above the imply AFC North crew in each. A 5.4 DANY/A is finest divisionally, and ties for sixth within the NFL. Whereas an eleventh ranked 6.8 OANY/A is above common and stable, it’s third within the division.
It emphasizes the powerful offenses the Steelers nonetheless must face. Baltimore is the NFL’s finest by far at 9.3, with the second ranked Payments over a full level much less at 8.1. Cincinnati sits at 7.4, fifth-best. As soon as once more, two prime 5 OANY/A opponents within the division Pittsburgh’s protection has to cope with.
The flipside is the remainder of the AFC North has been clearly beneath common on protection: Ravens – 6.6 (T-Twenty third), Bengals – 6.6 (T-Twenty third), Browns – 7.0 (T-Twenty eighth). On paper, Pittsburgh ought to have the ability to finish the 12 months with some strides on offense, not like Cleveland’s offense that ties for the NFL’s worst 4.3 OANY/A.
Right here’s a ranks recap to shut:
So, Pittsburgh does have the best-balanced marks within the AFC North, necessary components within the Steelers topping the division. We will see their greatest weak point by far is purple zone offense, discouragingly. Offensive success and defensive explosives have additionally trended poorly, notably the latter.
The remaining Baltimore and Cincinnati video games current scary challenges on offense, whereas the defenses have been lower than comparatively. That’s encouraging to sort after Pittsburgh’s worst offensive efficiency of 2024 in opposition to Philadelphia. Hopefully, the Steelers look significantly better as a launchpad to the playoffs.
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