At this time I needed to look and supply turnover and explosive play knowledge (TOX), together with what I name Adjusted TOX (ATOX) by means of the 2024 common season. The TOX stat takes turnovers and explosive performs for offenses and defenses, and creates a differential for every, which could be very invaluable traditionally to successful. Let’s begin with this, and by the top of the article, I’ll outline ATOX and current these outcomes as nicely.
First, listed below are explosive performs for offenses and defenses within the 2024 common season:
The Pittsburgh Steelers 2024 common season was above common in totality on either side of the ball. 57 explosive performs allowed on protection tied for ninth-best, whereas 66 explosives on offense ranked tenth. Although many issues derailed within the five-game shedding streak to finish the season, the protection ranked equally at eighth per my final TOX stats by means of Week 11, whereas the offense improved all the way in which from 18th.
Whereas that appears encouraging, recreation circumstances paint a unique image than the numbers. Enjoying from behind in a number of of the final outings compelled the offense into the catchup recreation, inflating their explosives, and infrequently not getting the specified results of victory. On the flipside, the protection permitting far more dashing success, and being down on the scoreboard had an identical influence, with opposing offenses to play extra conservatively.
There have been encouraging moments like a whopping ten explosives on offense in opposition to the Bengals in Week 13, successful that shootout 44-38, when the protection allowed 5 explosives. However the second matchup within the season finale factors to inconsistency with the offense getting only one explosive, letting the protection down that saved QB Joe Burrow and firm from any explosive performs, and shedding 19-17.
Try my explosive vs. adjusted explosive performs season recap if you wish to take a look at a extra in depth breakdown, together with weekly numbers.
Subsequent up, listed below are turnovers and takeaways:
Pittsburgh was above common in every as soon as once more, notably with 33 takeaways on which tied for first within the NFL, whereas 17 turnovers on offense downtrended to tenth. Via Week 11, every tied for fourth-best within the league when the workforce had an 8-2 report.
The workforce went 2-and-5 the remainder of the way in which, together with 9 turnovers in seven video games, in comparison with eight in ten video games to start out the season. So, the offense not caring for the soccer as nicely had a serious influence within the Steelers’ demise to shut the 2024 season.
As soon as once more, a previous examine has some extra particulars if you happen to’d prefer to test it out: 2024 common season CATS.
Now let’s see how the turnover and explosive play differentials shake out:
Explosive Diff = Explosive performs (offense) – Explosive performs allowed (protection).
Turnover Diff = Takeaways (protection) – Turnovers (offense).
The Steelers got here away with above-average marks, as anticipated from the season views earlier. Their turnover differential was the higher mark at plus-16, rating second league-wide, and a plus-nine explosive differential ranked tenth.
Touchdown within the prime ten in each side thus far is in fact encouraging in comparison with earlier seasons. However an absence of consistency from recreation to recreation, particularly when it mattered most to shut the 2024 season, has many overlooking the nice moments when a playoff win (or extra) appeared believable. The painful finish of the season, in opposition to largely playoff groups, is an unlucky asterisk to the late-year downward spiral.
The primary purpose for 2025 must be performing extra steadily in these phrases, particularly contemplating nearly each workforce on the highest proper of the final visible made the postseason. In fact, there are a number of elements that go into successful, with the TOX stat being one of the crucial necessary to workforce success traditionally.
Now that we’ve damaged down all of the transferring elements, listed below are the TOX differentials:
TOX Differential = Turnover + Explosive play differentials.
12-of-14 playoff groups had a constructive differential, re-emphasizing the significance of the stat. The exceptions had been the Rams and Chiefs. Each are taking part in nicely, with the latter trying to make historical past as the primary three-peat Tremendous Bowl Champions and have defied many stats in 2024.
The Pittsburgh Steelers ranked sixth with a plus-25 TOX differential within the 2024 common season, trailing 5 postseason groups who all completed with higher data. Pittsburgh confronted Philadelphia (#1 TOX differential), and naturally Baltimore (fourth) out of that group this season, with a mixed 1-and-3 report in these matchups.
ATOX provides extra context, so let me break the changes I make for explosive performs.
Adjusted explosive performs = whole explosive performs + double-explosive of 40 yards or extra (multiplier of two) + triple-explosive of 60 yards or extra (multiplier of three) + explosive touchdowns (multiplier of six).
The purpose is to see who has gotten extra (or much less) worth on their explosive performs, contemplating a 20-yard catch isn’t almost as invaluable as a 99-yard dashing landing, for instance.
Listed here are adjusted explosive performs thus far:
The protection was the stronger unit this season with a 107 adjusted explosive play quantity that ranked fifth, in comparison with tying for ninth within the preliminary view. Stored a lid on excessive explosives general, encouragingly. Of the 57 explosive performs allowed, 12 had been over 40 yards. No 60-plus yarders although, and simply 4 explosive touchdowns allowed.
Was a problem within the two losses in opposition to Baltimore although, permitting a number of within the Week 16 loss, and a 44-yard run to RB Derrick Henry en path to ending Pittsburgh’s postseason early.
Offensively, Pittsburgh down developments from tenth (66 explosive performs) to 140 adjusted explosive performs, which landed twelfth. Nonetheless above common, however factors to an absence of utmost worth as compared that may hopefully be maximized sooner or later. Eight 40-plus explosives, with none of 60 or extra, and eight explosive touchdowns. Went 6-1 in video games that they had an explosive TD this season.
Whereas that they had two of their most up-to-date Wild Card efficiency, they had been in desperation mode within the second half, after either side of the ball dug a 21-0 gap that was insurmountable. Onerous for any stat to beat that.
Subsequent, an identical view for adjusted turnovers and takeaways:
Adjusted turnovers/takeaways = whole turnovers (together with fourth down fails and missed subject objectives) + interception or FR explosive return (multiplier of two) + double explosive (multiplier of three) + triple explosive (multiplier of 4) + landing (multiplier of six).
Just like adjusted explosive performs, however stronger multipliers contemplating they’re much less frequent.
Listed here are adjusted turnovers and takeaways:
9 playoff groups land on the highest proper, and all 14 lands above common in a single or the opposite, taking part in a think about being within the match.
Pittsburgh’s protection was their higher unit once more, tying for tenth with 58 adjusted takeaways. However that’s stale compared to tying for first previous to the adjusted numbers, highlighting an absence of yards and TDs. 4 explosive takeaways, three double explosives fared nicely, however no triple explosives and one explosive TD (LB Payton Wilson’s 21-yard fumble restoration). 9 groups had a number of explosive turnover TDs, together with six playoff squads.
In comparison with the Steelers’ uncooked 17 turnovers on offense (tenth), their 46 adjusted turnovers fell to a extra common fifteenth, so either side of the ball lacked this worth in 2024. Two explosive turnovers, one double explosive, no triples, however two explosive TD turnovers. The latter had been 51 and 37-yard pick-sixes on Russell Wilson, each in divisional video games in Weeks 13 (Bengals) and 16 (Ravens). Largely took care of the ball in 2024, however not late season.
Now that we’ve seen the outcomes for offense and protection, let’s get to the adjusted turnover and explosive play differentials:
Stacking the numbers on either side of the ball, Pittsburgh was above common in each adjusted explosives and turnover differentials. Their plus-33 adjusted explosive play differential ranked ninth, and their plus-12 adjusted turnover differential landed thirteenth. The protection deserves probably the most props, rating greatest in each, notably adjusted explosives. The offense fell in each adjusted numbers, notably in adjusted turnovers.
Whereas the workforce was encouragingly above common in a number of features of the examine this season, the final assertion is unlucky contemplating the mantra and excessive significance in Pittsburgh’s identification of caring for the soccer. That being the worst results of the examine, and occurring later within the season because the workforce faltered, factors to some causes for the painful outcomes to the unlucky shut of the 2024 season.
To shut, listed below are the adjusted TOX (ATOX) differentials in totality:
Pittsburgh’s plus-45 adjusted TOX differential ranked eighth-best within the 2024 season. On the entire that’s encouraging, together with an unlimited enchancment from 2023 in explosive performs on either side of the ball, and persevering with some good issues by way of turnovers and takeaways.
Within the majority of their ten wins this season, these elements had been sturdy and contributed to these outcomes. However when dealing with their gauntlet of a schedule late season, issues dipped general of their five-game shedding streak to shut the 12 months, together with one more first spherical playoff exit.
That lack of consistency, notably in opposition to playoff groups, was an enormous purpose some followers went from the excessive of a contender to the miserable pretender view on the 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers. The adjusted stats additionally pointed to sturdy baseline stats missing in excessive worth in comparison with probably the most profitable groups within the NFL. Particularly, their eighth-ranked ATOX fell from sixth within the baseline TOX differential.
6-of-7 groups with a stronger ATOX made the postseason, with Detroit an instance of a workforce that discovered excessive worth within the adjusted stats, leaping all the way in which from a ninth-ranked TOX to 3rd ATOX. Philadelphia and Buffalo topped each differentials, extremely contributing to their success and nonetheless being within the dance, whereas Baltimore despatched Pittsburgh dwelling as a top-five workforce in every.
Being extra constant, stepping up in opposition to playoff-caliber opponents, and discovering extra excessive worth in ATOX must be large objectives for the 2025 season.
Thanks for studying and let me know your ideas within the feedback.
