2024 Steelers Offense: Speeding Success Charges Via Week 15

Among the many points Pittsburgh’s offense had within the Week 15 loss to Philadelphia was an absence of speeding success. Right this moment I wished to have a look at how speeding offenses have fared by Week 15, utilizing success charges by down, recreation halves, and weekly views. Let’s soar proper in.

First, let’s have a look at early down success charges league-wide (with scrambles, kneels, and aborted/penalty performs excluded):

First Down Rush Success = A rush that positive aspects 40 p.c or extra of the wanted yardage.
Second Down Rush Success = A rush that positive aspects 50 p.c or extra of the wanted yardage.

Not good, Bob. The Pittsburgh Steelers land on the undesirable backside proper of the visible, which means they’re a nicely below-average workforce in rush success on early downs. This was positively the case of their final Week 15 loss, but it surely has additionally been a season-long subject total. Their 43.1 first-down success price ranks twenty eighth within the NFL, which really improved since an analogous article I did on Steelers speeding success by Week 4 (35.7 p.c, thirty first).

Within the first 4 weeks of 2024, Pittsburgh was fairly good on second down, with a 64.3-percent success price that ranked eighth-best. That has fallen off a cliff to 53 p.c for a twenty fifth rank league-wide. The shortage of early down speeding success is placing Pittsburgh behind the chains, placing extra stress on late downs, a consider third and lengthy points, in addition to additional stress on the passing recreation.

My determination to take away scrambles from the equation is to primarily zoom in on working again success, and we see that it’s merely not ok. The gamers are one factor however play calling, together with an insane plan versus the Eagles with an absence of changes, working right into a brick wall the identical approach repeatedly.

All of Pittsburgh’s remaining opponents land on the high of the league on both first or second down. Kansas Metropolis (61.4 p.c) and Baltimore (57.2 p.c) are the highest two within the NFL in first-down speeding success, getting forward of the chains early, whereas Cincinnati has made up floor on second down (63 p.c), which ranks second league-wide.

This, after all, makes for extra ultimate third-down conditions total, and all three offenses have a top-four whole third-down conversion price. Pittsburgh ranks thirteenth as compared, which isn’t unhealthy contemplating the above, but it surely is among the largest blunders of their Week 15 loss to an ideal Eagles workforce.

One other regarding aspect for Pittsburgh is how usually they run the ball, second-most within the NFL in totality. Their lack of high quality success is discouragingly capping the potential of this offense towards the elite groups within the NFL.

Listed below are late downs, the place third and fourth downs that decide up a primary down are thought of a hit:

It’s not a lot better, with a twenty third rank on third and fourth down speeding conversions. That quantity is available in at 52 p.c. For context, the Ravens are an NFL greatest with a 73.3-percent late down speeding success price, one in all three groups above 70 p.c. Wow. This spectacular price doesn’t even consider QB Lamar Jackson’s speeding prowess, paired with RB Derrick Henry, who’s one of many NFL’s greatest, together with late downs.

There are a lot of key AFC North Information Factors which might be very important, and rush success in these Baltimore slugfests is excessive on the radar on either side of the ball.

The Chiefs are additionally an ideal late-down speeding workforce, with a 69.2-percent success price that ranks fourth league-wide. Robust check the following two video games for Pittsburgh’s protection, who merely couldn’t get off the sector late in Week 15 which contributed to a traditionally unhealthy time of possession drawback.

This was a key consider a Steelers victory towards the Ravens of their first matchup, on an analogous proper facet of time of possession, and would go a good distance in a hopeful season sweep and AFC North title if they’ll do it once more.

Right here’s to hoping that’s the case, together with stifling the run on early downs their final three video games towards groups which might be stable at it, whereas Pittsburgh’s offense merely wants to seek out extra speeding success throughout the board.

Now for the complete image, whole speeding success charges:

It’s unsurprising to see Pittsburgh in the direction of the underside of the league, rating twenty seventh in totality, with a 47.6-percent success price. A 50-percent ground is a minimal expectation, which is true for 23 NFL groups by Week 15. Seeing the group that’s not is discouraging, with Pittsburgh being one of many seldom playoff groups with a sub-5-0 speeding success price on offense. Eek.

The Chiefs and Ravens high the league but once more and emphasize the significance of the article and Pittsburgh’s challenges on faucet. Pittsburgh’s protection remains to be a top-five run protection on the season, in order that they’ve bought to deliver the increase in these fast turnaround video games. Dealing with Baltimore, arguably essentially the most bodily matchup within the league, then Kansas Metropolis, who’ve an analogous fame 4 days in a while Christmas, could possibly be a blunder.

These two video games will hopefully reveal Pittsburgh’s bodily and psychological toughness, versus how issues felt after their final loss, the place the run recreation might solely muster a season-low 3.3 yards per carry.

I used to be additionally curious to see how rush offenses have carried out by half:

Irrespective of the time of the sport, Pittsburgh has struggled as a speeding offense. Its 47.2-percent first-half success price ranks twenty seventh, and its barely higher 47.9-percent second-half success price ranks twenty fifth. A number of issues issue into this, like recreation circumstances. One of many largest, in my view, is Pittsburgh’s continued sluggish begins, which included 5 straight three-and-outs towards Philly.

Coach Mike Tomlin continues to be unconcerned, confusingly. If the offense can have earlier success, like lastly scoring their first opening-drive landing in all of 2024, the hope is they’ll stick to the run much more and get within the opposing protection’s head, together with extra speeding success.

That’s one thing each elite offenses within the Chiefs and Ravens do extraordinarily nicely. Whereas each are above the imply no matter half, they flip it up as the highest two groups within the NFL in second halves. They impose their will with 60-plus success charges after halftime: Kansas Metropolis (60.9 p.c) and Baltimore (60.1 p.c). Big problem and issue if Pittsburgh desires to appear to be the extra dominant workforce towards these excellent offenses.

To wrap up, let’s have a look at a weekly breakdown for added context:

We are able to see that the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offensive speeding success has been largely under the road all season. Solely three clearly above-the-line video games: Weeks 3, 4, and 11. The latter was the primary Baltimore matchup, and hopefully, Pittsburgh will be even stronger this time. Fairly a while within the different above-average performances, however each video games sadly resulted in losses.

The flipside is a whopping 11 video games with below-average speeding success charges, gross. Whereas the final two video games have been nearer to the 52.1-percent league common, two of their worst performances preceded them within the division, together with a lowly 38.5-percent success price towards the Bengals. They improved to 51.6 p.c towards Cleveland within the Week 14 revenge win, their greatest mark since going through Baltimore (56.7 p.c).

The Ravens will certainly be trying to put Pittsburgh under the road, as they’ve been a lot of the season. Whereas this stat hasn’t been the largest consider Pittsburgh’s wins and losses, if they’ll get a optimistic development to above common speeding success the remainder of 2024, it might gas a smoother offense that feels extra like a brand new automobile, than the analogy OC Arthur Smith used for the Steelers speeding offense: an outdated pickup truck that wants jumper cables.

That may get you by at occasions, however Baltimore and the two-time defending champs in Kansas Metropolis’s offensive speeding success appear to be Ferrari’s as compared. Each quarterbacks are clearly reaping rewards within the passing recreation and situationally, so I hope Pittsburgh’s protection slicing the legs off their speeding assault might help in much less success in any other case.

For the amount and id of Pittsburgh’s offense as a run-first workforce, their lack of high quality has quietened that narrative and flipped to QB Russell Wilson taking the passing recreation to the following degree. Now could be the time for Pittsburgh’s floor recreation to make that desired id going into the season simple. What higher time than after a tough Week 15 recreation, certainly pissed, towards nice groups in preparation for the postseason.

Let’s see your coronary heart coaches and gamers as a result of jumper cables aren’t going to chop it towards the elite within the NFL.