5 causes to imagine the Chiefs will three-peat

At 15-1, the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs have the NFL’s greatest file. However many league observers stay unconvinced the group has an actual shot at successful its third consecutive league championship.

Listed here are 5 causes they could be improper.

1. The Chiefs are excellent in one-score video games

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A lot has been made about Kansas Metropolis setting a brand new NFL file by successful “14 consecutive one-score games.” This has been extensively misinterpreted to imply the Chiefs had performed 14 straight one-score video games.

In fact, this occurred over 18 video games — beginning with the Chiefs’ 25-17 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17 of final season. Video games that weren’t settled by one rating are simply ignored.

Since setting a brand new file of 14, the group has had 4 extra matchups — successful all of them. Two had been determined by single scores. So, 73% of the video games on this 22-game stretch have been determined by eight or fewer factors.

And sure… that’s lots. During the last 10 seasons, 53% of NFL video games have been determined that narrowly, so it might be simple to suppose that the Chiefs are some type of loopy outlier.

However they’re not.

Listed here are the ten NFL groups with the very best share of one-score video games throughout that very same interval — starting with Week 17 of final season and together with the postseason.

Crew AllGms CloseGms Pct

KAN 22 16 72.7%

LAR 20 14 70.0%

IND 20 14 70.0%

HOU 20 13 65.0%

DET 19 12 63.2%

JAX 19 12 63.2%

BAL 20 12 60.0%

ATL 17 10 58.8%

WAS 17 10 58.8%

NYJ 17 10 58.8%

Whereas Kansas Metropolis has greater than every other group — and the very best share — it’s not precisely an outlier. Two different groups are at 70%. Three others are above 60%.

However the Chiefs are a little bit of an outlier in a extra essential statistic: the variety of victories in these shut video games. Over this similar interval, listed below are the groups with the very best successful percentages in one-score video games.

Crew CloseGms Wins WL%

KAN 16 16 100.0%

MIN 9 8 88.9%

PIT 11 8 72.7%

BUF 10 7 70.0%

PHI 10 7 70.0%

DET 12 8 66.7%

SEA 9 6 66.7%

LAR 14 9 64.3%

HOU 13 8 61.5%

GNB 10 6 60.0%

If the season ended at this time, all however certainly one of these groups could be within the playoffs. So it’s unclear why successful one-score video games is dangerous. It certain appears to be like like successful shut video games is a part of the NFL’s method for fulfillment.

Nevertheless it’s not as if Kansas Metropolis has simply now discovered find out how to do it. Since Patrick Mahomes took over the offense in 2018, the Chiefs’ file in one-score video games is 47-20. That 0.701 file tops the league throughout that point. And it’s not nearly about Patrick Mahomes, both. Throughout the 10 consecutive seasons Kansas Metropolis has been within the playoffs, it has a file of 0.667 in one-score video games — second solely to the Pittsburgh Steelers at 0.670.

2. The Chiefs’ success isn’t constructed on luck

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Solely a idiot would deny that luck has performed a task in an NFL group’s 15-1 file. Because the famous thinker Joe Montana typically advised his followers, “The ball is shaped weird. Sometimes it bounces funny.” Nevertheless it’s flat-out improper to counsel that Kansas Metropolis’s file has all been constructed on fortunate bounces.

Certain… Matthew Wright’s 31-yard subject aim try that bounced off the left upright and over the crossbar to defeat the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 14 was fortunate. However no luck was concerned in Kansas Metropolis blocking the Denver Broncos’ last-second subject aim try in Week 10. That was a wonderful particular groups play the Chiefs had deliberate after discovering a weak spot within the Broncos’ subject aim makes an attempt.

After all… it was fortunate for Kansas Metropolis that the Las Vegas Raiders selected a third-and-3 play with 14 seconds left of their Week 13 matchup for the middle and quarterback to get their wires crossed and put a shotgun snap on the bottom. However there was nothing fortunate about Chiefs’ linebacker Nick Bolton breaking into the backfield to get well the free ball.

These arguments solely deal with the group’s good luck. The Chiefs have had loads of dangerous luck, too. Shedding large receiver Hollywood Brown — their prime free agent acquisition — on the primary offensive snap of the preseason actually counts as dangerous luck. So does shedding Rashee Rice to a “friendly fire” damage in Week 4, Jaylen Watson in Week 6 and newly-signed left deal with D.J. Humphries in his first sport with the group.

So sure… the Chiefs have benefited from some good luck. However they’ve needed to struggle off their share of dangerous luck, too. That’s what all NFL groups do. Championship groups simply do it higher.

3. Key gamers have returned

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Talking of Brown, there’s little doubt the group might be higher now that he has returned to the sphere. The identical is true of operating again Isiah Pacheco.

However within the 5 video games defensive finish Charles Omenihu has performed since his return, the group’s sacks have nearly doubled, going from 1.9 per sport to three.6 — whereas the variety of blitzes per sport has declined 30% from 13.3 to 9.2. On the similar time, whole quarterback pressures have remained comparatively regular, dropping from 10.5 per sport to 9.6.

Like Chris Jones, Omenihu is a participant who may be efficient each inside and outdoors. When he’s within the lineup, it’s simpler for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to maintain defenses guessing. This permits him to carry quarterback strain extra typically — and provides it a greater likelihood to get residence — when he sends simply 4 go rushers.

This additionally advantages the go protection. Throughout this five-game span, opponent passer rankings have dropped from 91.8 to 75.1, and factors allowed have dropped from 19.8 to 14.0 per sport.

4. Key gamers have arrived

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The accidents to Rice and Pacheco opened the door for 2 gamers we by no means imagined would play for the Chiefs this season: large receiver DeAndre Hopkins and operating again Kareem Hunt.

Throughout a number of offseasons, Hopkins had been reported to be a participant Kansas Metropolis had sought in free company. Issues had by no means labored out. However after Rice’s damage, basic supervisor Brett Veach acquired him by way of a commerce with the Tennesee Titans — and discovered a solution to pay him the stability of his 2024 wage.

Whereas he’s averaged simply 4.1 receptions (and 43.1 yards) every sport, Hopkins’ contributions have been important. His presence has helped the group get extra manufacturing from tight finish Travis Kelce (who averaged 40.8 yards a sport earlier than Hopkins arrived, however 57.8 since then) whereas additionally making large performs of his personal.

Then there’s Hunt, who received up from his sofa to return to the group — and instantly grew to become the beginning operating again. The 29-year-old veteran could also be a step or two slower than he was when the group launched him in 2018, however he’s nonetheless a fierce competitor who may be trusted to get troublesome yards. He performed so effectively that when Pacheco returned, Hunt continued to have an essential function within the offense.

5. The Chiefs have already made historical past

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Earlier than NFL free company started, it was pretty widespread for groups to win back-to-back Tremendous Bowls. 5 groups did so in the course of the sport’s first 28 years.

However after free company began, it’s been a wholly completely different story. After the Denver Broncos did it, they went 6-10 in 1999. The New England Patriots did somewhat higher in 2005, ending the season 10-6 and successful towards a Wild Card group within the first spherical — however then misplaced to the Broncos within the Divisional spherical.

So of their try at a three-peat, the Chiefs have already had extra success than every other group within the free company period.

Does that imply Kansas Metropolis will waltz proper by way of the playoffs and win Tremendous Bowl LIX in New Orleans? No. The Tremendous Bowl champion is the group that may win three (or 4) consecutive video games towards the NFL’s greatest groups. That’s very laborious to do — which is strictly why it took nearly 20 years for one more group to have an opportunity at a three-peat.

However make no mistake: the Chiefs are respectable contenders who’re as well-positioned as every other group to win the 2024 championship. In the event that they fail, there might be no disgrace in it. In the event that they succeed, their glory might be richly earned.