5 issues to observe because the Chiefs host the Payments within the AFC Championship

The 2024 NFL season’s AFC Championship can be an epic, historic matchup between the convention’s high two contenders of the final half-decade. The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (16-2) will host the Buffalo Payments (15-4) on Sunday night, kickoff set for five:30 PM on GEHA Discipline at Arrowhead Stadium. The winner will head to New Orleans, Louisiana, for Tremendous Bowl LIX.

The Chiefs try to develop into the one workforce in NFL historical past to make a 3rd consecutive Tremendous Bowl after two earlier victories. The Payments need to win the AFC title for the primary time for the reason that 1993 season when a 30-13 house win over the Chiefs despatched Buffalo to its fourth consecutive Tremendous Bowl.

The depth of this battle can be felt by the gamers and the followers: Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes desires Chiefs Kingdom to take it up a notch Sunday to “see how loud [Arrowhead] can really get.”

The stage is about for one of many greatest video games in trendy NFL historical past. Listed here are 5 issues to observe within the AFC Championship:

1. Patrick Mahomes taking what the protection offers

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Mahomes can be scanning a well-recognized protection to him, however that doesn’t imply Buffalo can be predictable. In accordance with NFL NextGen Stats, the historically zone-heavy Payments attacked the Chiefs with extra man protection in Week 11, resulting in 18.2% of Mahomes’ targets qualifying as tight-window throws. That’s the second-highest mark in any recreation of his this season.

On Sunday, huge receivers Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown can be key. If Buffalo challenges the Chiefs’ passing recreation in an identical means, the duo may have alternatives to make massive performs down the sphere. Will probably be a matter of the connection going by: final week, Mahomes focused Brown deep twice for game-breaking performs, however neither was accomplished.

If the Payments again off, Worthy and Brown will nonetheless be essential in stretching the protection horizontally and vertically. With Payments’ beginning free security Taylor Rapp unable to play, rookie Cole Bishop can be attacked with velocity. Search for Worthy to get heavy doses of brief crossers and fast screens, taking the simple yards when Buffalo is delicate in alignment.

2. Josh Allen vs. the blitz

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This season, Payments’ quarterback Josh Allen completed with the third-best passer ranking versus the blitz, throwing just one interception and falling to sacks simply six occasions.

Like every of the actually elite quarterbacks, it may be harmful to ship further rushers at Allen and expose your self to a giant play. Nonetheless, the Payments’ offensive line is constructed to counter pocket crushers and permit Allen time regardless: when dealing with 4 or fewer go rushers within the common season, Allen had the fifth-longest time to throw within the NFL.

For defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, it’s about executing the blitzes on the proper time with a containment mentality. Allen is disciplined and can do away with the ball to beat the push, and the Chiefs ought to belief the wholesome protection unit to make these throws tough.

It ought to be all about forcing a foul resolution, which operating not often is for Allen. He completed with the very best speeding success price amongst beginning quarterbacks (66%) this season.

3. Trent McDuffie vs. Khalil Shakir

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The first matchup to observe for the Chiefs’ protection entails cornerback Trent McDuffie persevering with to be a blanket in protection. Uncooked PFF knowledge for “separation prevented” from the common season confirmed McDuffie because the chief amongst cornerbacks with minimal 200 main protection snaps.

He ought to be the precedence in masking Payments’ huge receiver Khalil Shakir, the workforce’s chief in targets (100) within the common season. Via two playoff video games, Shakir has 13 targets, 12 receptions, 128 yards and 5 first downs. No different Invoice has greater than 5 targets.

When the Chiefs blitz Allen, Shakir would be the go-to possibility; he has caught 85% of Allen’s blitzed throws to him, with 255 of the 267 yards in these conditions coming after the catch.

This head-to-head would go away cornerbacks Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams to defend the perimeter in opposition to huge receivers Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman. How profitable Allen is when concentrating on the skin duo might make the distinction.

4. Jawaan Taylor versus Von Miller

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The Chiefs’ offense bought by an unpleasant efficiency within the Divisional spherical, with credit score on account of a ferocious Texans’ go rush. Proper deal with Jawaan Taylor held up and solely allowed one hurry over 32 go blocks.

The Payments don’t have the extent of expertise Houston threw on the Chiefs off the sting, however edge rusher Von Miller will look to provide Taylor comparable hassle as Week 11: Miller earned a sack and a further strain over 18 rushes completely aligned over Taylor. General, it was Taylor’s lowest pass-blocking effectivity price in any recreation this season (PFF).

If Miller might be quieted, the main focus will go to left guard Mike Caliendo. He can be challenged in holding the entrance of the pocket in opposition to defensive tackles Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones.

5. Turnovers and the run recreation

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Within the Payments’ win over the Baltimore Ravens final week, turnovers helped the Payments get right into a constructive recreation script and dissuade the Ravens from counting on the run recreation. Baltimore operating backs averaged 6.1 yards per carry.

The Chiefs fell into an early gap in their very own matchup with Buffalo this season, when Mahomes threw an interception after receiving the opening kickoff. It was the final recreation the Chiefs dedicated a turnover, and that pattern persevering with can be important in opposition to Buffalo, the NFL chief in turnover differential (+27).

An efficient run recreation naturally helps in the direction of a clear day on offense, and it’s clear operating again Kareem Hunt ought to lead that cost. Final week, Hunt earned 24 of his 44 speeding yards after contact, gaining 12 yards over anticipated all through the sport (NFL Subsequent Gen Stats). Working again Isiah Pacheco rushed for six yards lower than anticipated.