Full league superior punting evaluation for 2024

I’ve entry to a variety of stats in regards to the NFL, however one stat that, to one of the best of my data, is simply obtainable behind paywalls is punter hangtime. If somebody desires to seek out the place Riley Dixon ranked by way of hangtime, I’d be grateful.

Commonplace punting stats will be discovered in lots of locations. The league has began monitoring punts downed contained in the 20, however simply wanting on the misses context (the place was the punt beginning LOS and the way usually did the punter over-punt and find yourself with a touchback when attempting to get one contained in the 20). To that finish I do various issues on this evaluation that you will see nowhere else:

decide the proportion of complete yardage that the punter might have “gained” for his and after which did really “gain” – that is performed by calculating potential punt yards. On brief area punts (punts from the staff’s personal 35 or higher), the absolute best end result is downing on the one. On long-field punts (from the 34 or worse), the absolute best end result is outlined at a 65 yard punt.
I break up out brief and lengthy area punts
I calculate what I name the precision punt efficiency (PPP) which is the proportion downed inside the ten minus the touchback proportion.
I calculate the proportion of punts downed inside the ten
I calculate the proportion of punts downed contained in the 5

Since Riley Dixon was the one punter who punted for the Denver Broncos this season, any time you see Bronco punting, simply learn it as Dixon.

So right here is how Dixon ranked:

Internet Punt AVG: twelfth
Gross Punt AVG: twentieth
PPP: seventh
in20%: twelfth
in10%: ninth
in5%: eighth
TB% (smallest): 14th
FC% (largest): eighth
common punt return allowed (smallest): tenth

So Dixon (and the punt protection staff) was/have been common or higher in each stat besides gross common. After all that could be a little odd since Dixon had roughly half of his punts at altitude the place the ball flies farther, however possibly he was specializing in hangtime and placement. The excessive proportion of honest catches compelled and the pretty low common punt return allowed would appear to point that.

Dixon and the protection staff have been additionally elite at pinning opponents on the one. They completed this SIX instances through the season. This was probably the most ever (going again to 1994) for any staff and two greater than the earlier excessive of 4. I got here up with a solution to weight punts inside the ten: ten factors for a punt downed on the one, 9 for downed on the two, eight for downed on the three, and so on. The Bronco punt staff was one of the best within the league (tied with the Browns).

Giving 10 factors for a punt downed on the 1, 9 for on the 2, 8 for downed on the 3, and so on. = Punt Placement Factors The Broncos and the Browns did one of the best job of pinning the opposite staff deep in 2024. The Texans have been an in depth third. IND, NYJ and TAM ought to discover new punters. pic.twitter.com/jNqozn3sBS

— Joe Mahoney (@ndjomo76) January 22, 2025

Utilizing this weighted metric for figuring out how good a punt staff was at pinning the opponent deep. Some seasons the Broncos had zero punts downed on the one.

The information solely goes again to the 2001 season, however the 33 punts downed on the 1 this season was a document for the NFL. The 6 by the Broncos was additionally a document. pic.twitter.com/rN7t9mgsaM

— Joe Mahoney (@ndjomo76) January 28, 2025

So how did Dixon do by way of maximizing Bronco area place (“gaining” yardage)? He was seventeenth in total punt proportion, twelfth in lengthy area punt proportion and fifteenth in brief area punt proportion.

So even the worst punter within the league was getting 70% of the potential yards on common. So in case you have been punting from the 20 that may imply a 46 yard internet punt, so the opponent can be ranging from their very own 34. The very best punter within the league on this metric, Jack Fox, of the Lions, was getting 80%. So he would hit a 52 internet from his personal 20, that means that the opponent would begin at their very own 28. However is there actually that large of a distinction between beginning a drive on the 28 or the 34? Sure, there may be.

Utilizing the plot right here, we will get a tough estimate at what number of factors Jack Fox saved on punts relative to the three guys who punted for the Bucs from anticipated factors added (EPA). So a drive beginning on the 34 is 66 yards from the endzone. The EPA there may be 1.50 on first down. A drive beginning on the 28 is 72 yards from the opponent’s endzone. The EPA on that 0.94. So one of the best punter within the league is was saving about half a degree per punt relative to the worst punters within the league.

As everyone knows, an incredible punter could make the job of the protection simpler. Was Riley Dixon an incredible punter in 2024? No, however he was higher than common. Might he get replaced simply and extra cheaply? After all, however I would love the reward the Bronco draftee with a pleasant contract to maintain him round. Exhibiting loyalty to gamers who’ve carried out above common, significantly particular groups guys, is sweet for establishing staff tradition, if the staff has the cash to take action.

The very best paid punters within the NFL make roughly 3.5 million per yr. It won’t be cost-prohibitive to provide Dixon a good free agent contract for a punter (say 2.5 to three.0 million). Punters have a tendency to hold across the league for a very long time and the punter frat is tough to get into and onerous to get kicked out of. The typical age of the punters within the NFL final season was 29.7 and the oldest was 39. The youngest was 24 (Ethan Evans of the Rams).

Ballot
Ought to the Broncos re-sign free agent punter Riley Dixon?