Rams have to be good and keep away from extending Kyren Williams throughout offseason

Over the subsequent 12 months, there shall be lots of dialogue on whether or not or not the Los Angeles Rams ought to prolong working again Kyren Williams. Whereas I nonetheless have your consideration within the early elements of this column, I’ll preface this by saying that there isn’t a denying Williams’ influence within the Rams offense. The query right here is whether or not or not his influence is circumstantial and if he’s a working again value giving an extension.

That’s particularly the case after the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens had a lot success paying Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. Operating the ball has change into extra vital over the previous few seasons. The highest seven groups in speeding EPA made the playoffs as did eight of the highest ten groups in success price. Six of the highest eight working backs who led the NFL in speeding EPA per try have been on groups that made the playoffs. The identical will be mentioned about six of the top-10 working backs in success price.

Nonetheless, is that extra in regards to the particular person working backs or the speeding ecosystems themselves? It’s no secret that the working again place is closely depending on the offensive line and the scheme that they’re inserted into. It’s how Barkley can go from averaging lower than 4 yards per carry in two of his final three years with the New York Giants after which be the Offensive Participant of the Yr with the Eagles. Barkley has additionally been in a position to take the Eagles speeding assault that was already excellent to new heights.

Over the previous decade, there was a “running backs don’t matter” motion. Basically, that refers to an argument that the working again place is much less helpful than others within the fashionable NFL. With an elevated emphasis on passing together with the significance of a robust offensive line, the place is much less helpful and too depending on exterior elements. There’s additionally a a lot larger damage price and shorter “prime” on the place which the Rams skilled with Todd Gurley. If a crew can construct a robust ecosystem, they’ll usually discover success with a less-star caliber working again. 5 of the highest ten working backs in success price have been drafted on day three or later. A type of 5 is Williams.

There haven’t been causes to pay a working again huge cash ever for the reason that Gurley contract failed as virtually a warning to NFL executives. It’s why the Giants didn’t give a clean examine to Barkley. Whereas they might have used an explosive play-maker, there was little probability that Barkley would have moved the needle on the subject of the success of that crew. Yearly working backs are discovered late within the draft. Tyrone Tracy was one in every of them.

As Mike Tanier wrote on the Too Deep Zone substack,

“The Running Backs Don’t Matter movement was always silly and shrill, a bumper-sticker conclusion drawn from some irrefutable-but-subtle analytical facts. Running backs have always been a delicious part of a balanced breakfast, even if they are the Count Chocula and not the eggs or grapefruit. To add a banal observation: running backs are more useful as value boosters for well-built contenders than they can ever be as brute-force laborers for bad teams.”

The Rams received the Tremendous Bowl with an absent working sport. Sony Michel made $1.7-million with the Rams in 2021 as he led the offense in speeding yards. Only a few would say he was a helpful piece of the offense. Whereas Michel had success, his influence was extra about being a participant that stored the offense on observe quite hindering it.

Relating to Saquon and NYG, listed below are the cap hits of the RB1 on the final 8 SuperBowl winners:

2022 – Isaiah Pacheco: $890K2021 – Cam Akers: $1.4M2020 – Leonard Fournette: $2.0M2019 – Damien Williams: $1.2M2018 – Sony Michel: $1.7M2017 – LeGarette Blount: $1.2M2016 -…

— Erik Slater (@erikslater_) July 17, 2023

The Rams haven’t had a cause to pay a working again since Gurley. Nonetheless, their actions additionally converse to a mannequin that they aren’t going to pay a working again. With that mentioned, Rams normal supervisor Les Snead mentioned throughout his post-season press convention,

“I think that’s something that’s going to be on the plate. He would be someone that after three years you could begin discussing, let’s call it, renegotiating, starting anew. Because I do think Kyren is someone who is a Ram and has a very impactful role for us.”

This isn’t the primary time that Rams brass have used the phrase or one thing alongside the strains of “someone who is a Ram.” Simply final 12 months when discussing Ernest Jones, McVay mentioned, “He is a mentally and physically tough guy and he’s checking all the boxes for what we’re looking for in a Ram.” Snead added, “He’s definitely someone we’ll discuss and someone we’d like to have around.”

Quick ahead to final August and Jones was traded away for a 2026 sixth-round choose. This isn’t to say that the Rams are going to commerce away Williams. It’s extremely unlikely that they’d try this. On the identical time, it additionally implies that the NFL is ever-changing and simply because the entrance workplace says one factor doesn’t imply they’ll really do it.

Williams has been an vital piece to the offense. Nonetheless, it’s value questioning if a few of that success is circumstantial. Out of Williams’ 14 speeding touchdowns final season, 12 of these 14 got here contained in the 5 yard line. It’s value mentioning that 9 of these 12 touchdowns got here contained in the three.

For comparability, solely 9 of Derrick Henry’s 16 touchdowns got here contained in the 5. James Prepare dinner scored 16 speeding touchdowns and solely six of these got here from contained in the 5 yard line.

So as to add to that, Jahmyr Gibbs and Williams every have 26 profession speeding touchdowns. Out of Gibbs’ 26 speeding touchdowns, 11 of them have been of ten or extra yards. In the meantime, solely three of Williams’ 26 have been outdoors ten yards.

I do know Jahmyr Gibbs is in his personal class, however that is fairly telling

Profession speeding touchdowns- Jahmyr Gibbs: 26- Kyren Williams: 26

Speeding TDs of 10+ yards- Gibbs: 11- Williams: 3

Whole carries- Gibbs: 432- Williams: 579

— Cameron DaSilva (@camdasilva) January 25, 2025

Since 2023, solely two gamers have extra carries than Williams. Nonetheless, there are 21 gamers with extra touchdowns of ten or extra yards.

Once more, the Rams drafted Corum as a result of they noticed a participant much like Williams. Corum rushed for 27 touchdowns throughout his ultimate season at Michigan. With extra alternatives, he may most likely capitalize in these conditions.

That’s not a detrimental on Williams. He’s actually change into one of many higher short-yardage and goal-line working backs within the NFL. There’s a cause that the Rams had an 80 p.c energy success price in accordance with FTN Fantasy Information. Williams was an enormous a part of that.

Nonetheless, context is required.

That lack of explosiveness is an enormous cause why it’s onerous to justify an extension for Williams. The Rams working again had an explosive run price of 1.9 p.c. That ranked forty fourth out of 46 certified working backs.

RB Explosive Run Charge and Stuff Charge

Ian Hartitz

Williams is okay and he does lots of issues effectively. Nonetheless, it’s truthful to query whether or not or not he’s the all-around working again value giving an extension to. Williams is a singles hitter and solely will get what’s out there. He was the one working again final season to get precisely what was anticipated. His speeding yards over anticipated per try was precisely zero.

The Rams completed thirty first in open discipline yards and twenty sixth in working again yards which provides extra credit score to the participant carrying the ball. He ranked thirty seventh in missed tackles pressured and fortieth in yard after contact.

Speeding offense explosive play proportion

Ian Hartitz

He additionally doesn’t add so much within the passing sport. Regardless of working a route on 58.8 p.c of the crew’s drop backs, Williams ranked final in targets per route run and yards per route run. His yards per goal ranked thirty second out of 37 qualifying working backs and his yards per reception ranked thirty fourth. Williams additionally ranked within the bottom-three in yards after contact per reception.

Williams usually will get touted for his skill in go safety. Whereas Professional Soccer Focus isn’t the end-all, be-all, Williams ranked thirty second out of 37 working backs in pass-blocking and had the fifth-highest allowed stress alternative price.

Right here we have now a working again that struggles to get greater than what’s blocked for him regardless of having a top-10 run-blocking offensive line. He doesn’t add a lot within the passing sport and has a turnover downside. It’s truthful to say that he can repair it, but it surely has additionally been a difficulty going again to his days at Notre Dame. That doesn’t point out that he’s missed time with damage in two of his first three years. Is that actually a participant value an extension?

It clearly depends upon what Williams would command and the general construction. Chubba Hubbard just lately signed a reported $33-million extension. Nonetheless, solely round $12-million of that was assured and the Panthers can get out of it following his age 27 season with solely $3-million in lifeless cash. Jonathan Taylor signed a 3 12 months, $42-million contract extension with the Colts in 2023, however solely $19.3-million of that was assured. The Colts can get out of that one with solely $2.6-million in lifeless cash after his age 26 season.

The massive distinction with these groups is that also they are paying a rookie quarterback. Williams’ present market worth is $10.4-million in accordance with Spotrac and can seemingly go up because the wage cap will increase. Williams is at the moment 24 and that present quantity would make him the sixth-highest paid working again.

Now we return to the sooner level of working backs being worth boosters for well-built contenders. How a lot worth does Williams add to the present offense and is that value $12-$14-million?

It is a Rams crew that has gone away from paying the working again place since they discovered a helpful lesson with Todd Gurley. If the Rams have been good, they’d proceed with that method on the subject of Kyren Williams.