What a Stafford-Trevor Lawrence commerce would seem like

The similarities of 2021 are so eerie that’s price exploring the potential of a Matthew Stafford for Trevor Lawrence commerce and when you assume {that a} blockbuster of that magnitude is unimaginable then you definitely’ve by no means met Les Snead, who has knowledgeable Stafford’s brokers that they will gauge their worth with different groups. Folks have been asking for weeks what the NFL’s model of the Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis commerce could be and whereas Lawrence is not any Luka, that is as shut because it might get.

Although there are issues to the Jacksonville Jaguars buying and selling Lawrence resulting from his contract, the Los Angeles Rams are possibly the one staff that would pull it off due to Stafford.

Right here’s how it will work, however first the similarities to 2021:

The Jaguars employed a GM from the Rams

Simply as in 2021 with Brad Holmes, the Jaguars have employed a brand new normal supervisor out of L.A.’s entrance workplace, this time that individual being James Gladstone.

The Lions employed Holmes in 2021 and he instantly traded an sad Stafford to his previous boss in alternate for a Jared Goff and two first spherical picks. Opening the familiarity pipeline between L.A. and Jacksonville simply as two quarterbacks face unsure futures implies that the one GM across the league who Gladstone is aware of he can work with is Snead.

The Jaguars employed a HC who labored beneath Sean McVay

This wasn’t even one of many elements from 2021, it’s simply extra motive to assume that Jacksonville could be a wise touchdown spot for Matthew Stafford. The Jaguars employed Liam Coen, the Rams offensive coordinator in 2022, as their new head coach and play caller.

That’s the one season that Stafford and Coen have labored collectively (he was at Kentucky in 2021) and it didn’t go properly, but it surely does imply that Stafford would have a clean transition to the Jacksonville offense. Smoother than in all probability every other QB the Jaguars might begin, together with Lawrence.

The commerce would complement their respective wants

In fact the Jaguars most probably employed Coen with the intention to deliver probably the most out of Lawrence, but when Gladstone might pull off what Holmes pulled off in Detroit (making arguably the worst franchise within the NFL right into a Tremendous Bowl contender regardless of buying and selling for a QB downgrade in his first yr on the job) and add property to their future then Jacksonville may very well be higher off than with Lawence.

We additionally all just about know that since Lawrence was drafted and Stafford was traded in 2021, that Stafford has been the higher quarterback. If he goes to the Jaguars in 2025, that’s a division that he might assist them win instantly.

Conversely, the Rams see that they’ve a extremely younger protection and a extremely previous offense. With no clear path in direction of drafting a QBOTF (L.A. picks twenty sixth in a weak QB class this yr), Lawrence represents a long-term future for Sean McVay and the pinnacle coach with a penchant for former primary general picks has by no means had the prospect to teach and develop somebody like Lawrence.

One other similarity right here being that Goff was picked first, Stafford was picked first, and Lawrence was picked first.

Kara Durrette/Getty Photographs

Everybody is aware of that Lawrence was fairly dangerous final season and there’s no assure that he’s going to get higher with Coen. Even regardless of making the playoffs as soon as, Lawrence has a profession report of 22-38 and the Jaguars finest report with him is 9-8. Proprietor Shad Khan appears uninterested in ready and doubtlessly shedding 13 or 14 video games once more.

Stafford would give the Jaguars higher odds of successful 11 or 12 video games in 2025. However Lawrence would give McVay higher odds of nonetheless wanting to teach the Rams in 2026.

How would a Stafford-Goff commerce work?

So the large street block to buying and selling Lawrence is {that a} pre-June commerce leaves a $100 million useless cap hit on the Jaguars payroll in 2025: That’s $83 million greater than Lawrence’s present cap hit!

Imagine it or not, that’s not completely untenable if that’s what Jacksonville did (they might reduce, restructure, and prolong sure gamers to get compliant however it will be too laborious), however that’s not what they’d do right here.

No, the Jaguars would commerce Lawrence AFTER June 1st.

“But wait! That couldn’t work! They wouldn’t get any 2025 draft picks!”

Precisely. Which might be an issue normally…until the Jaguars knew they have been getting a extremely good quarterback in return.

Which on this case, they’d be.

As Stafford — and doubtlessly Cooper Kupp — are on the crux of this commerce, the Jaguars would be capable to stabilize and even improve their quarterback place whereas additionally buying draft picks sooner or later. That’s not one thing that the majority groups can provide to Jacksonville and on L.A.’s finish, the chance to commerce Stafford after the draft implies that they will purchase a QBOTF, afford to pay him, transfer Kupp, and nonetheless preserve all of their draft picks in 2025.

Stafford-Lawrence post-June 1 cap implications

If the Jaguars wait and commerce Lawrence after June 1st, they should pay his $35 million possibility bonus in March however then they’re type of scot free.

OverTheCap says that buying and selling Lawrence in June leaves solely a $14.5 million useless cap hit in 2025 and $2.5 million in cap financial savings. It does put a significant dent of their 2026 wage cap, however not sufficient to do irreparable harm and everyone knows that the wage cap continues to extend a lightning tempo.

In the event that they did this commerce, the Jaguars would have cap house in 2025, cap house in 2026, Matthew Stafford, 2026 draft picks, and possibly Kupp.

The Rams would tackle Lawrence’s contract — together with assured $35 million roster bonuses in 2026 and 2027 — however they’d additionally save $27 million towards the cap in 2025 by buying and selling Stafford after June 1st.

“Impossible” useless cap/wage cap implications proper now turn out to be potential, if not favorable, if the groups agree to attend and make a commerce in June.

Stafford-Lawrence commerce phrases

Rams get: QB Trevor Lawrence, 2026 fourth spherical choose

Jaguars get: QB Matthew Stafford, 2026 first spherical choose, 2027 second spherical choose, WR Cooper Kupp

We might in all probability get extra inventive than this, and I’m certain some Rams followers are hesitant to commerce a primary and a second along with Stafford so as to get a QB who was dangerous final season, however Trevor Lawrence has by no means had Sean McVay as a coach.

McVay received probably the most out of Goff in comparison with Jeff Fisher. McVay received probably the most out of Stafford in comparison with all of the coaches that he had in Detroit. McVay received probably the most out of Baker Mayfield in comparison with Kevin Stefanski.

I’d wager that McVay might get probably the most out of the 25-year-old, 6’6, 220 lb, former prime prospect within the nation, nationwide champion, first general choose Trevor Lawrence.

On Jacksonville’s aspect, they will’t actually agree to surrender the rights to that quarterback for a quarterback who’s 12 years older than him until they will actually promote folks on the truth that not solely does Stafford give them a greater probability to win in 2025, however that he’s bringing helpful draft picks with him.

Plus, what does Les Snead care about first spherical picks?

By ready till June 1, the Rams could have additionally paid Kupp’s whole $7.5 million roster bonus (which they may do anyway), they received a staff to take him, and so they even stored him packaged with Stafford. The Jaguars, keen to switch Christian Kirk (who would possibly even make sense going to L.A. on this case), would now have an offense with Stafford, Kupp, and Brian Thomas, Jr., somewhat than simply the one with Lawrence and Thomas.

In addition they get to maintain their 2025 first spherical choose (fifth general) and may doubtlessly now use that on an offensive lineman to assist shield Stafford. Or to enhance the protection, which additionally helps the offense.

It must be that attractive of a state of affairs to ensure that the Jaguars to half with Lawrence and on the opposite aspect, it’s an attractive deal for Snead and McVay as a result of they discovered a house for Stafford and Kupp (within the AFC) with out having to commit to 2 of the oldest starters within the NFL past 2025.

Who wins the commerce?

Identical to 2021, it is a win-win. It’s simply that the roles are type of reversed in a method.

The Rams received the Tremendous Bowl with Stafford, whereas the Lions received a number of draft picks that helped them construct a Tremendous Bowl contender round Goff.

On this case, the Jaguars might truly contend within the AFC subsequent season, whereas the transfer is extra long-term for the Rams. Besides that it’s actually a long-term transfer for each groups. The Rams would have a QB who’s 12 years youthful than Stafford, however Snead has confirmed that he can construct a championship roster with out first spherical picks. The Jaguars would have a QB who’s nearer to 40 than 30, however they’d supercharge Coen’s first yr as head coach and nonetheless land extra draft capital sooner or later.

Each groups win, each groups escape their respective unsure cap conditions with QBs who is perhaps on the way in which out anyway, and neither staff appears to be like stale in 2025.

However can each groups be daring sufficient to attend till June to do it?