Will Stanley Keep? A Have a look at a Potential Contract Extension

“I’ll always choose winning over money any day, and I know playing with ‘8’ you always have a chance.”

These have been Ronnie Stanley’s phrases in December throughout a chat with Jonathan Ogden. It’s a sentiment that loads of gamers specific, particularly once they get to play with a generational expertise like Lamar Jackson.

Emotions can change when the cash hits the desk. Beginning-caliber left tackles not often attain unrestricted free company, and a number of other groups need assistance on the blind facet. Whereas Stanley is just not an elite LT at this level, he’s nonetheless an skilled starter at one of many league’s scarcest, most vital positions. Contracts signed by Garret Bolles, Dion Dawkins, and Taylor Decker within the final two years have established that market between $20 and $21 million per yr. Stanley shares some key similarities with these gamers – age, availability, and the negotiation of a 3rd contract with a crew that drafted them – making them sturdy factors of comparability.

Alaric Jackson’s latest three-year, $57 million contract with the Rams supplies additional perception. He’s considerably youthful and fewer skilled than Stanley, however compares when it comes to availability and efficiency. Right here’s how these gamers have stacked up of their three seasons earlier than signing in addition to their contract yr.

Notice: 4 of Jackson’s begins have been at proper guard in 2022. Bolles signed in December 2024, however his full-season stats are displayed.

All however Dawkins missed important time throughout the three seasons previous to their subsequent contract, however context is essential. Most of Bolles’ absences have been attributable to a season-ending harm in 2023, whereas Jackson’s absences resulted from a case of blood clots in 2022 and a two-game suspension in 2024. Stanley and Decker each missed 10 video games throughout two seasons with one wholesome yr. Stanley additionally spent a number of video games in 2022 and 2023 rotating snaps at left sort out, making him the largest harm danger of the group.

Notice: Professional Soccer Focus is the one publicly-available supply of OL information. Their numbers will not be a definitive analysis, however adequately symbolize participant efficiency throughout giant numbers of video games. Stress price and sack price divide whole pressures and sacks by the full variety of pass-blocking alternatives as outlined by PFF. Their effectivity metric “measures pressure allowed on a per snap basis with a weighting towards sacks.”

Primarily based on this information, Ronnie Stanley falls behind his friends, even when specializing in his fully-healthy contract yr. His sack price is low relative to his strain price, however that has extra to do together with his quarterback’s elite sack avoidance. Dawkins, who blocks for Josh Allen in Buffalo, advantages in an analogous approach. These statistics point out that Stanley is a borderline top-10 LT and needs to be paid as such.

A movie evaluate of Stanley’s 2024 season results in an analogous conclusion. He is a superb slot in Todd Monken’s scheme, each as a run blocker on the transfer and a cross protector on an island. Monken needed to dedicate extra assist to the precise facet of the OL in 2024, leaving Stanley to battle edge rushers 1-on-1 all recreation. He was stable all year long, dominating matchups occasionally whereas generally struggling towards the league’s greatest. The tape additionally reveals how Stanley advantages from blocking for Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Once more: borderline top-10 LT.

Nonetheless, the shortage of the left sort out market tends to inflate contracts above purely performance-based projections. Jackson, for instance, was projected for $17.5 million per yr by OverTheCap, however eclipsed that quantity by 8.6% to achieve $19 million per yr. Now that he’s off the market, Stanley can be the perfect (and possibly solely) starting-caliber LT to hit free company, giving him a shot at clearing an APY of $20 million, particularly with one other main cap improve this yr. A latest report from ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler on Stanley’s extension talks displays that: “Some inside the league are projecting that deal to land somewhere between $21-23 million per year.”

On the RSR Discussion board: Ronnie Stanley Inventory Watch from Professional Soccer Rumors

Such a deal would place Stanley among the many prime 5 LT contracts when it comes to APY, however his well being stays a reputable concern. He by no means performed a full season earlier than 2024, whereas Bolles, Decker, and Dawkins all had at the very least 4 earlier than signing their third contract. Which will lower the sum of money groups are prepared to ensure on Stanley’s contract, giving Baltimore room to discover a deal. Eric DeCosta has traditionally been prepared to provide extra assured cash in alternate for an APY that doesn’t break the financial institution. Matching Jackson’s $19 million per yr would put Stanley again among the many prime 10 highest-paid LTs with sufficient ensures to maintain him from hitting the market.

Right here’s how they may construction that deal:

Notice: $15 million possibility bonus due in 2026 is fully-guaranteed at signing. $7.5 million possibility bonus due in 2027 turns into fully-guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2026 league yr. 2027 and 2028 roster bonuses are due on the fifth day of the league yr.

Ronnie Stanley would obtain simply over $35 million in assured cash at signing with $42.5 million in whole ensures. The roster bonuses enable the Ravens to backload his contract whereas forcing them to make an early-offseason choice on preserving him in 2027 and 2028. The per-game roster bonuses don’t present a lot harm insurance coverage, however the cap credit ensuing from any video games he misses would assist pay for substitute follow squad elevations or signings. His low cap hits in 2025 and 2026 would give the Ravens monetary flexibility over the subsequent two years. Greater cap hits in 2027 and 2028 should be inexpensive if the cap continues to skyrocket, however the crew could have a chance to determine on Stanley’s future in each years.*

Let’s see how this contract suits into the market:

Notice: Studies don’t point out if Jackson’s ensures are at signing or whole, although the Rams’ contract precedents point out the latter. All contract figures courtesy of OverTheCap.

When it comes to uncooked worth, Stanley’s APY would tie Jackson for ninth-highest amongst lively LTs with the fifth-most assured cash (each at signing and whole). His assured percentages examine to these of Bolles, Decker, and Dawkins, however the whole quantity of assured cash is larger. Weighing the entire elements – age, availability, efficiency, positional shortage, cap inflation, and market traits – Stanley should have the ability to earn extra on the open market. If that’s his precedence, so be it. However not each crew will probably be prepared to ensure as a lot cash, and even fewer provide what the Ravens can: organizational familiarity, scheme match, and the chance to dam for Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. These issues have worth, even when it’s not simply translatable into {dollars} and cents.

Associated: The Entrance Workplace Podcast – Tackling Powerful Choices

Finally, negotiation is one from which each side stroll away happy, however not ecstatic, in regards to the remaining deal. On this case, the Ravens would give Stanley a robust assured construction in alternate for a decrease APY than he might obtain in free company. The crew would have their left sort out locked down for at the very least two years, giving them extra time to discover a long-term successor. Stanley might not attain his full incomes potential, however he can obtain a top-10 APY with confidence that he’ll obtain a lot of the cash. Mixed with the upside of staying dwelling in Baltimore and competing for championships, he has loads of cause to signal on the dotted line.

*If accidents stay a problem, Stanley will be launched in 2027. The ensuing $30 million in lifeless cash wouldn’t be preferrred, however the Ravens can push $22 million to 2028 and wouldn’t must pay his remaining $42.5 million in wage and roster bonuses. That might end in a two-year, $43.5 million contract. If Stanley stays wholesome, 2028 will current a extra apparent choice level. Stanley will probably be 34 years previous, making a launch or retirement extra probably than one other extension. The Ravens would save $19 million by shifting on from Ronnie Stanley in 2028 with $22 million of lifeless cash, $14 million of which will be pushed into 2029. That might end in a three-year, $57 million contract.