Six of the Bucs’ seven 2026 draft picks are signed. Josiah Trotter shouldn’t be, and he’s most likely not going to be for some time.
If that sounds acquainted, it ought to.
Final 12 months the Bucs took Benjamin Morrison at choose No. 53 and didn’t get him below contract till July 20. 5 of their six picks had been signed by mid-Might and Morrison sat there because the lone holdout whereas the remainder of the league labored by means of the identical drawback with second-rounders on the identical time. This 12 months, Trotter is sitting in the very same spot, solely the mathematics has gotten extra difficult, and the leverage has tilted additional towards the participant.
Right here’s what’s really being negotiated.
The Structural Shift That Broke The Second Spherical
Wage ensures have been the foremost negotiation factors for brokers and groups in terms of rookie contracts for the reason that 2011 NFL-NFLPA Collective Bargaining Settlement. As soon as the NFL set a tough slotting system for rookie wages the battle shifted from complete quantity and variety of years to how a lot of the slot might the participant guarantee they might completely get. In 2022, Lewis Cine was in a position to get full ensures at choose No.32, setting the precedent that each first rounder go-forward had a four-year assured wage. That precedent held for all of 1 12 months.
Then in Might 2025, the Texans gave second-rounder Jayden Higgins a totally assured four-year contract at choose No. 34. No second-round choose had ever obtained a totally assured deal earlier than. The Browns instantly matched at choose No. 33 with Carson Schwesinger, and from there the dam broke. The NFL world watched choose No. 40 – quarterback Tyler Shough and the New Orleans Saints.
After Derek Carr’s retirement, Shough was the presumed face of the franchise and held appreciable leverage to get a totally assured deal himself. That leverage paid off and each choose forward of him slotted into the precedent. Eight second spherical picks. Each greenback locked in.
Then it stopped at choose No. 41.
Under choose No. 40, the offers final 12 months turned a slot-by-slot ladder of partial ensures. T.J. Sanders at No. 41 settled for 94.6% complete assure with 77.5% of Yr 4 locked in. Mason Taylor at No. 42 got here in at 91.3% complete and 60% Yr 4. The numbers stepped down at a roughly predictable charge from there: Alfred Collins 88% complete, Donovan Ezeiruaku 86%, JT Tuimoloau 84%. By the point you reached Terrance Ferguson at choose No. 46, the Rams settled at 82.8% complete with simply 23% of Yr 4 assured.
Ferguson is the comp that issues. Decide No. 46 in 2025. The identical slot Trotter was chosen on this 12 months.
We now have a related knowledge level for 2026.
Aaron Wilson reported on Friday that the Colts finalized C.J. Allen’s contract at choose No. 53. Allen received 83.67% of his deal assured and the primary three years are absolutely locked in. That’s up from Morrison’s 75.4% complete assure on the identical slot in 2025, with no Yr 4 safety in any respect.
#Colts deal finalized for C.J. Allen: $9.128 million, together with $3.099 million signing bonus with first three years absolutely assured, and 83.67 % complete assured, up from 75.37 % assured at slot final 12 months
In a single 12 months, choose No. 53 jumped 8.3 share factors of complete assure and the construction of the deal received basically rewritten. Three years absolutely assured wasn’t on the desk for second-round picks under choose No. 51 final summer time. It’s now.
The implication for Trotter’s camp is easy. If choose No. 53 simply cleared 83% assured, the ground for choose No. 46 must be greater. Considerably greater. The Ferguson comp from 12 months in the past is now not the start line of the dialog, it’s the ground the brand new dialog builds from.
Why Josiah Trotter Possible Gained’t Signal His Bucs Rookie Contract Anytime Quickly
That is the half that issues for understanding the timing. Bucs rookie linebacker Josiah Trotter shouldn’t be actually negotiating with the group proper now. He’s ready on picks Nos. 41 by means of 45 to signal first.
Final 12 months was the primary 12 months absolutely assured contracts existed within the second spherical, and the road landed at choose No. 40 (Tyler Shough). This 12 months the early signings will decide whether or not the road strikes down. If choose No. 41 indicators a totally assured contract, that turns into the brand new ground. If choose 42 indicators one, the ground strikes once more. Trotter’s leverage level is to ask for full ensures and maintain that place till a participant drafted forward of him indicators for much less. The second that occurs, his quantity turns into clearer. Someplace above Ferguson and under that participant.
Bucs ILB Josiah Trotter – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
That is why the Bucs don’t have an actual path to getting Trotter signed in Might and even June. Till the picks forward of him resolve, there’s no anchor to barter in opposition to. Each group within the league with a Spherical 2 choose from No. 41 by means of No. 45 is in the identical staring contest, and any person has to blink first. The group that provides in first units the marketplace for everyone behind them.
Until the Bucs simply wish to set the market themselves and acquiesce to Trotter’s absolutely assured request. However I don’t see them doing that.
Josiah Trotter’s Rookie Contract Projection
When the mud settles, right here’s the place the deal is more likely to land.
The overall assure for Josiah Trotter’s rookie contract ought to are available someplace round 88% to 91%. Decide 53 grew 8.3 share factors 12 months over 12 months on the identical slot, and choose No. 46 already grew 8.7 factors from 2024 to 2025 (Jonathon Brooks at 74.1% to Ferguson at 82.8%). Even assuming the expansion charge decelerates a bit because the slot will get nearer to the 100% ceiling, one other six to eight factors on prime of Terrance Ferguson’s quantity is an inexpensive expectation. Name it 89% because the central estimate.
The Yr 4 assure is the place the structural shift from the Allen deal will present up most clearly. Decide No. 46’s-year 4 quantity went from 0% in 2024 to 23% in 2025. Allen cleared that at choose No. 53, getting 30% of his 12 months 4 wage assured. The same soar for Trotter ought to land someplace within the 45% to 55% vary.
Bucs ILB Josiah Trotter – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
Trotter’s camp will open by asking for a totally assured deal. That’s the proper ask given the cascading market above him. The Bucs will counter within the low 30s on Yr 4, anchored on the Ferguson framework and their organizational desire for shielding money flexibility on the again finish. The deal that will get signed will land someplace between these two positions, virtually actually after picks Nos. 41 by means of 45 have all set their numbers, and virtually actually in late June or July.
The Bucs’ draft class is functionally full. The coaching camp roster is about. There’s no urgency on both aspect to shut this sooner than the remainder of the league forces it to shut. Trotter will signal when the market tells him what the proper quantity is, and never a day earlier than.
If historical past is any information, anticipate the announcement someplace across the third week of July, identical to Benjamin Morrison final 12 months. Similar slot the 12 months earlier than, identical delay, identical normal dynamic. The one factor that has modified is the scale of the quantity on the contract.
