Has the Aston Villa goalkeeper’s efficiency surpassed that of his Everton compadre? Blake Thomsen argues that the USA No. 2 ought to actually be the USA No. 1.
BY
Blake Thomsen
Posted
September 09, 2013
5:06 PM
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IF JURGEN KLINSMANN needs to offer his staff its greatest likelihood to proceed the streak of dwelling qualifying wins in opposition to Mexico, he ought to begin Brad Guzan over Tim Howard.
It’s unlikely that Klinsmann will take away Howard from his primary function—particularly earlier than Tuesday—however Guzan represents the higher choice in opposition to the determined El Tri. Guzan has arguably outperformed Howard within the Premier League over the previous 15 months, and Howard’s patchy kind for Everton seems to be carrying over into the nationwide staff.
Howard’s show on Friday in Costa Rica was his poorest for the USMNT in a very long time.
Admittedly, nobody within the U.S. backline had a very good match, however Howard’s efficiency was significantly regarding. The Ticos’ second and third objectives highlighted a number of the rising considerations about Howard’s recreation which have surfaced over the previous few years.
Primarily, questions have been raised about Howard’s athleticism. “Athleticism” may be very troublesome to quantify, however it seems that Howard’s has declined just lately. This isn’t shocking in any respect, contemplating Howard is now 34 years previous.
Some goalkeepers get higher with age, as their positioning and decision-making enhance yr after yr. Nevertheless, this isn’t the case with Howard. His athleticism is by far his greatest attribute, and he relied on this all-world athleticism to grow to be a top-five keeper on the planet in direction of the top of the final decade. As his athleticism has slipped, so has his general efficiency.
Celso Borges’ Tenth-minute header is a superb instance of a shot that an in-his-prime Howard could have stored out.
This time, the explosive dive and fingertip save by no means materializes. As an alternative, Howard takes an unconvincing half-step earlier than realizing he’s powerless to cease the ball from skipping previous him.
On the Ticos’ third aim, we see issues brought on by Howard’s rising tendency to remain on his line as an alternative of claiming or clearing balls in behind the again 4.
Right here’s Joel Campbell’s breakaway aim in actual time.
Campbell’s scuffed end beats Howard—which in itself raises questions—however we’ll give the goalkeeper the advantage of the doubt as a result of the shot was taken so near him. Nevertheless, with nearer evaluation we are able to see simply how simply Howard might have come and cleared the hopeful ball excessive properly earlier than Campbell reached it.
Word Campbell’s place on the sector when the move/clearance is performed.
The Costa Rica striker is in his personal half of the sector when he begins to chase after the ball. Round a second later, Howard comes into the body.
As he must be, he’s positioned a few step past the 18-yard field, which I’ve traced in crimson. He’s within the excellent place to acknowledge the state of affairs and are available clear the ball to security.
However as an alternative, he retreats.
Now have a look at the place Campbell first touches the ball.
He can’t be way more than 10 yards away from Howard’s beginning place, which I’ve approximated with the rectangle. Campbell comes all the best way from his personal half—a distance of roughly 40 yards—earlier than first touching the ball. Absolutely Howard might have simply handled the ball by popping out to clear it to security. However he didn’t, permitting Campbell to barely outrace Matt Besler after which slide the ball by Howard’s legs to seal the victory.
Hesitance to return out is mostly a operate of missing confidence, and Howard definitely didn’t look assured as he retreated deeper and deeper into the field earlier than conceding the dagger third aim.
It should be mentioned that we’re definitely in subjective territory right here when dealing strictly with athleticism, aggression off the road, and confidence. However contemplate Howard’s current USMNT save share for one thing just a little extra concrete.
Within the qualifying cycle for the 2014 World Cup—together with each semifinal and Hex matches—Howard’s save share sits at simply 62.5 %. To see simply how large of a decline that is, one has to return to Howard’s wonderful stage pre-World Cup 2010. Within the qualifying cycle for the 2010 World Cup, Howard’s save share was a strong 74.5 %, 12 factors larger than within the present cycle.
The chief wrongdoer for Howard’s current decrease numbers is probably going his decline in athleticism and aggression. Granted, different components do come into play—high quality of opposition, protection in entrance of him, and many others. However general, his save share is dropping as a result of he’s merely unable to succeed in as many pictures as he as soon as might. Or in some instances, he’s unable or unwilling to return out and smother by balls past the again 4.
The case for Guzan is much less statistically pushed as a result of he has performed in far fewer video games for the U.S. than Howard has.
The 28-year-old deserves monumental credit score, although, for retaining clear sheets in each of his Hex begins. And people weren’t precisely simple matches. Guzan first stored Costa Rica at bay within the SnoClasico earlier than doing nothing lower than shutting Mexico out on the Azteca.
Howard’s solely two clear sheets in 5 Hex begins have been in opposition to Panama and Honduras at dwelling. And in contrast to Howard, Guzan is within the type of his life, choosing up the Aston Villa Participant of the Season award forward of even Christian Benteke, who scored 19 league objectives. This compilation from final season showcases all of Guzan’s greatest attributes—athleticism, sound decision-making, and fearlessness.
At age 28, Guzan seems to be firmly in the course of his prime, whereas the 34-year-old Howard is years faraway from his earlier top-five on the planet stage. Some have prompt that Howard’s organizational abilities are superior to Guzan’s and thus a goalkeeping swap could be foolhardy at this stage. However Guzan has clearly confirmed he can marshal a younger backline, as proven by the shutouts in opposition to Costa Rica and Mexico within the Hex. He’s additionally much more accustomed to directing an inexperienced again 4 than Howard is.
At Everton, Howard has benefitted from appreciable continuity in entrance of him, particularly within the middle again division, with the skilled Sylvain Distin and Phil Jagielka shielding Howard’s aim for quite a lot of years.
However, Guzan’s Aston Villa aspect employs a continually altering again 4. The unit that beat Arsenal on the Emirates on opening day had a median age of simply 24. Guzan could be able to work with no matter patchwork protection the U.S. deploys on Tuesday just because he does it on a weekly foundation together with his membership staff.
The magnitude of the sport received’t unsettle Guzan, both. He stored his nerve enjoying in a blizzard and likewise on the storied Azteca, so there’s no purpose to assume he can’t proceed his run of high quality performances in large video games.
With all of this in thoughts, it’s time to instill Brad Guzan because the U.S. No. 1. He’s assured, in kind, and in his athletic prime. There may be completely no room for sentimentality in terms of qualifying for the World Cup, particularly earlier than a recreation in opposition to a bitter rival.
Given the questionable protection the Yanks will subject on Tuesday evening, they may want a powerful efficiency in web. In the intervening time, Brad Guzan is extra prone to produce one than Tim Howard.
Is it time for Brad Guzan to step in? Who’s extra prone to get the U.S. three factors on Tuesday?
Blake Thomsen is an ASN contributor and freelance author. Observe him on Twitter. Statistics courtesy of US Soccer and the Washington Publish.
