The Bucs have been anticipated to make the playoffs coming into nearly each season throughout the 2020s. ESPN’s newest playoff projections view Tampa Bay as favorites to reclaim the NFC South title, however the numbers recommend they continue to be removed from the NFL’s true contenders coming into 2026.
The workforce’s failure to succeed in the postseason in 2025 was the primary time that had occurred this decade, and so they don’t need it to occur once more. A lot of the dialogue thus far has been about whether or not or not the Bucs are a middle-of-the-pack-team and what the win ceiling is in 2026. Evaluating how they stand to the remainder of the NFL is an fascinating thought train.
ESPN Sees Bucs As NFC South Favorites, However Not True Contenders
ESPN’s Seth Walder defined the platform’s Soccer Energy Index, which serves as a foundation for the way they ranked every NFL workforce.
Loads of what’s projected is sensible. The Rams, who simply pulled off a historic blockbuster commerce for go rusher Myles Garrett, rank first by a large margin. Los Angeles is the workforce to beat this season, boasting a 14.9% probability of profitable the Tremendous Bowl. One may get misplaced in all of the numbers and look at every workforce, however what in regards to the Bucs?
Bucs GM Jason Licht and HC Todd Bowles – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
They aren’t in the identical tier as Los Angeles, rating 18th in FPI. Tampa Bay was given the Seventeenth-best playoff odds, coming in at 47.3%, largely on account of a 41.2% probability of profitable the NFC South. These numbers are loads increased than the Falcons (33.7%, 27.4%), Saints (23.8%, 19.3%), and Panthers (15.8%, 12.2%). That drives dwelling the expectation that the Bucs are usually not considered as one of many NFL’s finest groups, however quite the perfect workforce within the NFC South.
Betting on the Bucs to win the Tremendous Bowl could be extraordinarily worthwhile at this level, contemplating they’re given only a 1.6% probability of hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
Operating 1000’s of simulations to derive a win-loss calculation, the Bucs are anticipated to have 8.5 wins to eight.4 losses. That’s proper within the candy spot of being an 8-9 or 9-8 workforce in 2026. Whereas issues may skew extra in both route, one issue is holding them again.
Bucs Protection Anticipated To Be The Largest Factor Holding Them Again In 2026
Wanting extra into the Soccer Energy Index, the Bucs got a .1 mark primarily based on the contributions of offense, protection, and particular groups put collectively. It may be in comparison with baseball’s WAR metric which determines how significantly better a participant is than alternative degree. Utilizing that very same course of to take a look at every unit, it’s clear Tampa Bay’s protection is predicted to maintain them from conducting extra.
The offense was given a .6 mark, which initiatives them to be the Fifteenth-best offense within the NFL. That is likely to be probably the most questionable projection in the whole breakdown, as that rating must be nearer to the highest 10.
Bucs OC Zac Robinson – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
Issues had been about as dangerous as they may get down the stretch in 2025, and so they nonetheless had the 18th-best scoring offense. With a brand new offensive coordinator set to name performs, quarterback Baker Mayfield will likely be arrange in a greater place to have success with a extra constant run recreation behind him. Add in a more healthy set of weapons to throw to and an offensive line at full energy, the unit is predicted to get nearer to the place it was in 2024, when it ranked because the fourth-best scoring offense.
The explanation Tampa Bay lands exterior of the league’s true contenders turns into apparent on the defensive aspect of the ball.
The Bucs are projected to be tied with the Panthers for the Twenty second-best protection within the league, with a destructive .7 mark. Whereas Todd Bowles has introduced in youthful coaches to the employees and a brand new solid of gamers to work with, there are a variety of transferring elements for him to determine between now and earlier than the season kicks off. Given latest outcomes, it’s not stunning to see this rating.
Bucs OLB Yaya Diaby and DT Calijah Kancey – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
ESPN’s mannequin seems to be pushed largely by uncertainty on protection. Tampa Bay completed close to the underside of the league in a number of key go protection classes final season and is relying on a number of new contributors to play main roles in 2026. Fashions are inclined to favor confirmed manufacturing over projected enchancment. Whereas there may be loads of room for substantial enchancment, it’s removed from a assure.
An underrated silver lining in ESPN’s FPI is how extremely they view the workforce’s particular groups unit, as they’re anticipated to be tied for fourth-best within the league with a .2 mark. Whereas particular groups don’t transfer the needle as a lot, it does make the distinction in shut video games and brought on a number of wins to slide away from Tampa Bay’s grasp final season. With longtime particular groups coordinator Danny Smith introduced in, there’s a completely different expectation that it’s going to not be a legal responsibility. Having among the best kickers within the recreation in Chase McLaughlin helps, too.
Making sense of those analytics helps contextualize the place the Bucs stand in comparison with the remainder of the NFL. Whereas 18th is likely to be a few spots too low, ESPN’s projections paint Tampa Bay as a median workforce with an above-average probability of profitable a below-average division. The offense seems able to outperforming expectations, however till the protection proves it could actually take a significant step ahead, they are going to stay nearer to the center tier of NFL contenders than the highest.
