We’re going to have a look at an EPA-based metric to see how immediately’s NFL QBs maintain up beneath a complicated stats microscope, and to do this, we flip to ESPN’s Whole QBR.
Why not merely use the better-known passer ranking? As a result of the trusty NFL passer ranking was designed to judge the passing recreation solely. It doesn’t account for a quarterback’s operating recreation, his potential to generate first downs, the quantity of sacks he takes, penalties, success charge, and plenty of different issues.
ESPN’s QBR is an try to repair a number of the weaknesses of the normal passer ranking. ESPN’s Sharon Katz and Brian Burke clarify the idea:
Conventional field rating stats distort the performances […] as a result of they (1) fail to account for all the methods a quarterback can have an effect on a recreation, (2) don’t put performs into the right context (a 5-yard achieve on second-and-5 could be very completely different from a 5-yard achieve on third-and-10), and three) don’t acknowledge {that a} quarterback has teammates who have an effect on every play and also needs to get credit score for all the pieces that occurs on the sector.
Whole QBR, very like the Anticipated Factors idea, seems at each single play, provides context (e.g. down-and-distance, rating differential, win likelihood and so on.) after which allocates credit score to the quarterback and his teammates to supply a clearer measure of quarterback effectivity. Uniquely to ESPN’s Whole QBR, the ensuing metric is expressed as a quantity on a 0-to-100 scale to supply a participant’s Whole QBR.
A median quarterback may have a QBR round 50, and a Professional Bowl-level participant may have a QBR round 75 for the season. On a recreation degree, nevertheless, a QBR of 75 implies that holding all different components fixed (protection, offensive teammates, and so on.), a quarterback’s workforce could be anticipated to win about 75 p.c of time, on condition that degree of QB play.
Within the tables additional down this put up is a have a look at 45 energetic NFL quarterbacks (plus Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Eli Manning, for causes that can turn into clear later) and the video games they began between 2015 and 2025. In video games wherein these 45 QBs began, had no less than 10 go makes an attempt, and posted a QBR of 75 or larger, they’re a mixed 717-164-2 for a win share of .812, which isn’t removed from the 75 p.c ESPN talks about above.
If we settle for {that a} Whole QBR of 75 or extra denotes recreation by the QB, it follows {that a} QB with loads of 75+ QBR video games is an efficient quarterback.
However as an alternative of merely summing up the variety of good video games for every quarterback, we’ll use “Good game percentage” (video games with a Whole QBR above 75 as a share of whole video games began) as our metric of alternative. This accounts for the truth that the quarterbacks on this evaluation have performed a distinct variety of video games over the past 11 seasons. Matthew Stafford for instance has performed 161 video games over that span, whereas Brock Purdy has solely 45. “good game percentage” corrects for that.
Additionally, why the seemingly arbitrary cutoff in 2015? As a result of that’s the 12 months the typical passer ranking (not QBR) hit 90 for the primary time after steadily climbing from the 70s within the early 200s. Scheme adjustments, rule adjustments, and higher quarterback safety result in that regular improve, and 2015 marked the transition into a brand new period the place the passer ranking has persistently oscillated round 90.0, as you possibly can see from the graph beneath.
And with all that out of the best way, right here’s a have a look at the 36 NFL QBs with no less than 20 begins since 2015 together with their “good game percentage”. We’ll have a look at the QBs with fewer than 20 begins a bit additional down this put up.
The desk is coloration coded into tiers to enhance legibility, and I’ll broaden on these tiers after the desk. The presumptive backups (per the newest ourlads.com depth charts) are marked in italics.
Tier
QBs with 20+ begins
2026 Workforce
Video games Began (min 10 PA)
“Good Games” (QBR > 75)
Good recreation share
Tier 1: Planet Mahomes
Mahomes 17-22
KC
79
41
51.9%
Brock Purdy
SF
45
22
48.9%
Jordan Love
GB
48
22
45.8%
Patrick Mahomes 17-25
KC
126
57
45.2%
Tier 2: Borderline Prime 5
Drew Brees (ret.)
—
84
36
42.9%
Josh Allen
BUF
124
50
40.3%
Tom Brady (ret.)
—
126
49
38.9%
Dak Prescott
DAL
138
53
38.4%
Lamar Jackson
BAL
105
39
37.1%
Justin Herbert
LAC
95
34
35.8%
Tier 3: Above common
Drake Maye
NE
27
9
33.3%
Matthew Stafford
LAR
161
49
30.4%
Joe Burrow
CIN
77
23
29.9%
Deshaun Watson
CLE
71
20
28.2%
Aaron Rodgers
PIT
151
42
27.8%
Kirk Cousins
LV
158
44
27.8%
Jared Goff
DET
151
40
26.5%
Jayden Daniels
WAS
23
6
26.1%
Jameis Winston
NYG
89
23
25.8%
Baker Mayfield
TB
120
31
25.8%
Jalen Hurts
PHI
78
20
25.6%
Tier 4: The bus drivers
Tua Tagovailoa
ATL
65
16
24.6%
Kyler Murray
MIN
86
21
24.4%
Daniel Jones
IND
80
19
23.8%
Bo Nix
DEN
34
8
23.5%
Sam Darnold
SEA
90
20
22.2%
Marcus Mariota
WAS
83
17
20.5%
Trevor Lawrence
JAX
60
11
18.3%
Tier 5: The Eli Manningpit of infinite distress
Eli Manning (ret.)
—
67
12
17.9%
CJ Stroud
HOU
45
8
17.8%
Geno Smith
NYJ
68
11
16.2%
Andy Dalton
PHI
104
16
15.4%
Caleb Williams
CHI
34
5
14.7%
Joe Flacco
CIN
89
13
14.6%
Mac Jones
SF
55
8
14.5%
Bryce Younger
CAR
44
6
13.6%
Jacoby Brissett
ARI
64
8
12.5%
For a very long time, Patrick Mahomes was a planet unto himself. Over a span of 5 years (2028 -2022), each second recreation he performed was a >75 QBR recreation. And even when he wasn’t in a position to preserve recreation share above 50%, since, he nonetheless stands tall above virtually all different QBs on this listing.
To know how his profession has progressed, right here’s an summary of how his good recreation share has developed over time. Mahomes solely began one recreation in his 2017 rookie season so I’m bundling that recreation into the 2018 numbers within the little desk beneath.
Patrick Mahomes
2017-18
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Video games Began
17
14
15
17
17
16
16
14
>75 QBR
9
7
9
8
8
5
5
6
Good recreation share
52.9%
50.0%
60.0%
47.1%
47.1%
31.3%
31.3%
42.9%
Mahomes entered the league on a blistering tempo, and his play solely dropped off in 2023 and 2024 earlier than choosing up once more in 2025. How his Achilles harm will have an effect on his numbers going ahead is anyone’s guess, although the Chiefs have been prepared to wager half a billion {dollars} over the following eight years that issues will work out.
Circling Planet Mahomes are Brock Purdy and Jordan Love, even when each are nonetheless early of their careers with 45 and 48 begins respectively. After 46 video games (2017-2020) Mahomes was sporting a 54.3 good recreation share, so each Purdy and Love are off that blistering tempo, and it stays to be seen whether or not they can preserve their excessive share over time, or in the event that they’ll transfer down a tier. Nonetheless, the 49ers and Packers will seemingly dominate this decade with these two quarterbacks.
Drew Brees and Tom Brady are each HOF-bound and spotlight this tier, which I’m solely calling “Borderline Top 5” as a result of calling it the “Elite Tier” would seemingly ruffle loads of feathers. Both approach, Brady and Brees are simply two of the most effective QBs over the past 20 years and are absolutely deserving of the phrase “elite”, largely as a result of they’ve sustained elite efficiency over virtually 20 years, one thing the opposite gamers on this tier haven’t actually managed but. Dak Prescott is a living proof. Even when his good recreation share is nearly an identical to Brady’s, he’s had a way more up-and-down efficiency than Mahomes for instance.
Dak Prescott
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Video games Began
16
16
16
16
5
16
12
17
8
17
>75 QBR
9
6
3
7
2
6
5
8
0
7
Good recreation share
56.3%
37.5%
18.8%
43.8%
40.0%
37.5%
41.7%
47.1%
0.0%
41.2%
Coincidence or not, however the variety of Tremendous Bowl rings between the energetic gamers on this tier (Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert) is precisely zero, and maybe that’s why we are able to’t but name this tier the Elite tier.
But additionally noteworthy about this quartet of gamers: they’re all nonetheless with their authentic groups. No different QB with 100 or extra begins on this whole listing remains to be with the workforce that initially drafted him.
This third tier consists of QBs which have an above common good recreation share (the 45 QB common is 25.0%). You would possibly discover some names right here that depart you scratching your head. Is Aaron Rodgers actually “just” an above common QB? Bear in mind, that is solely about knowledge since 2015, and you would simply argue that that is unfair for somebody like Rodgers, who could have been the unique Planet Mahomes for some time: From 2008-2014, Rodgers was cruising at a forty five.6% “good game percentage”, which might rank him third total within the listing above. However Rodgers hit a droop from 2015-2019 with a share of simply 28.2%, rebounded in 2020 & 2021 (56.3%) earlier than nose-diving in the direction of the tip of his profession (2022-2025: 7.8%). For big elements of his profession, Rodgers was proper up there on the prime of the listing, however this pattern provides him an unfavorable look; such are the vagaries of arbitrary cut-off factors in statistics, and such are the dangers of extending a profession that has run its course.
This tier accommodates a bunch of below-average QBs which have a progressively worse good-game percentages. For youthful guys like Bo Nix, there no less than stays the hope that he can nonetheless transfer up the ranks. For groups banking on their veteran QB’s potential to maneuver up the ranks, that’s extremely unlikely to occur. If an NFL QB doesn’t put it collectively in his first 4 years as a starter, he by no means will.
Tier 5: The Eli Manning pit of infinite distress
This closing tier is made up principally of QBs whose identify recognition or draft pedigree has stored them within the league for much longer than they need to have been. If these guys have been known as Ben DiNucci (UDFA) they’d be in search of a job as a backup QB within the indoor soccer league. However alas, hope springs everlasting for a highly-drafted underperformer with identify recognition.
On to the principally youthful QBs with lower than 20 begins. I felt that the small pattern measurement might presumably distort the general image, which is why I’m itemizing them individually.
Participant
2026 Workforce
Video games Began (min 10 PA)
“Good Games”(QBR >75)
Good recreation share
Malik Willis
MIA
6
3
50.0%
Michael Penix
ATL
12
4
33.3%
J.J. McCarthy
MIN
10
2
20.0%
Jaxson Dart
NYG
12
2
16.7%
Tyler Shough
NO
9
1
11.1%
Cam Ward
TEN
16
1
6.3%
Will Levis
TEN
19
0
0.0%
Sam Howell
DAL
18
0
0.0%
Shedeur Sanders
CLE
7
0
0.0%
Sticking to the logic of the tiers we used above, Malik Willis, now the starter in Miami, is the clear standout right here, however are six begins over 4 years sufficient to attract any sort of conclusion from? Michael Penix seems like he’s off to an okay begin. However can he stick with it in his second 12 months and maintain off backup Tua Tagovailoa?
Jaxson Dart in New York is nothing greater than a Daniel Jones clone, who himself is nothing greater than an Eli Manning clone impersonating an NFL-quality starter. Well-known Jameis could provide extra upside than Dart, who’s one failure to slip away from IR.In Washington, the Commanders should hope Jayden Daniels finds again to his 2024 type (35.3%) and doesn’t decide up the place he left off in 2025 (0%). And Mariota is not any improve at this level in his profession.In Philly, a barely above-average QB who can’t throw over the center is being propped up by a powerful supporting forged, however he’s not going to win you loads of video games on his personal.The Cowboys then again have a backup in Sam Howell who hasn’t had a 75+ QBR recreation in 18 begins, and Joe Milton’s two begins didn’t yield any such recreation both. It’s Dak or bust in Dallas.
Finally, it’s not one participant that wins and loses video games. What the numbers point out is that some QBs get much more assist from their groups after they have recreation than others do, a mirrored image of the truth that it’s not one participant who wins and loses video games.
Dak Prescott has greater than his fair proportion of detractors, and much more so amongst Cowboys followers it appears. However should you decide a QB by the statistical firm he retains, Dak Prescott is on the very prime of the sport.
“So,” some would possibly say, “Dak has had some good games. But my eye test tells me he’s had a lot of bad games. Why are we not looking at those?”
These voices could or could not have a degree. As a result of if you wish to be a prime QB on this league, it’s not sufficient to have a bunch of 75+ QBR video games that give your workforce likelihood to win. It’s no less than equally essential to reduce the variety of unhealthy video games wherein QBs actively lose video games for his or her groups. And that’s one thing we’ll have a look at within the subsequent put up, the place we have a look at “bad game percentage” and should discover some surprises there as properly.
