[Ed. note: Last week we ran two posts here ranking active NFL QBs by their number of good games and bad games. As a key metric we used ESPN’s proprietary Total QBR, which prompted some comments about how the classic passer rating might be a more appropriate and transparent metric to use, also because it explicitly omits a QB’s running game. This post addresses that.]
Dak Prescott’s Wikipedia web page incorporates a whole subsection devoted to the NFL information he set in his rookie season. These information embrace the rookie document for wins (13), the rookie passer score document (104.3), the rookie completion share document (67.8%), and plenty of others – and that’s not even counting the various Cowboys franchise information he broke.
However the one document that stood out to me is the primary one listed:
Prescott completed his 2016 rookie common season with a document 11 video games with an over 100 NFL passer score, breaking the rookie document of 9 video games set by Russell Wilson in 2012.
11 video games with a 100+ NFL passer score is a feat that had beforehand solely been surpassed 5 occasions in NFL historical past:
1994: Steve Younger (12 video games)2010: Tom Brady (12)2011: Aaron Rodgers (13)2011: Tom Brady (12)2016: Matt Ryan (12)
When the NFL passer score (to not be confused with ESPN’s QBR) was initially developed in 1973, the target was to create a single quantity that may differentiate between excellent, wonderful, common, and poor performances. Beneath are the metrics that the builders of the formulation felt greatest denoted these performances, and which they mixed into the passer score we all know as we speak.
CompletionPercentage
Yards perAttempt
TouchdownPercentage
InterceptionPercentage
PasserRating
Excellent
70%
11.0
10%
1.5%
133.3
Glorious
60%
9.0
7.5%
3.5%
100.0
Common
50%
7.0
5%
5.5%
66.7
Poor
30%
3.0
0%
9.5%
0.0
In 1973, a passer score of 66.7 was thought-about common, which was barely above the league common passer score of 61.7 on the time. 53 years later, the NFL common has improved by a staggering 30 factors. In 2025, the NFL common passer score was 91.4, and a 66.7 passer score as we speak can be thought-about a “poor” recreation by a QB. In 1973, a score of precisely 100.0 was thought-about an “excellent” recreation, and whereas in as we speak’s pass-happy NFL a passer score of 100.0 will not be thought-about “excellent” anymore, it’s nonetheless a reasonably good efficiency any manner you have a look at it.
Final yr, for instance, NFL QBs mixed for 199 video games with a passer score over 100 in 544 alternatives. Professional-Soccer-Reference.com exhibits that there are 77 energetic QBs within the NFL as we speak who’ve thrown for a 100+ passer score at the least as soon as of their profession. The mixed W/L document of these QBs in video games with a 100+ score is 1,377-411-6 for a formidable .768 profitable share.
Merely put, the upper your passer score, the extra you’re placing your staff ready to succeed. If we slot final yr’s 544 video games by passer score tiers, these are the W/L information for every tier:
Excellent (>133): .897 (35-4)Glorious (>100): 0.729 (147-54-2)Common (66.7-99.9): 0.423 (104-142)Poor (<66.7): 0.211 (20-75)
If we settle for {that a} 100+ score in a recreation is a “good” efficiency by the QB, it follows {that a} QB with lots of 100+ score video games is an effective, maybe even wonderful, quarterback.
And with all that out of the best way, right here’s a have a look at 35 energetic NFL QBs with at the least 20 begins together with their “good game percentage” in addition to 19 retired QBs for reference. We’ll have a look at the QBs with fewer than 20 begins a bit additional down this publish.
Participant
2026 staff
Video games began
Good video games(>100 passer score)
Good video games (in%)
Z-score
Brock Purdy
SF
45
25
55.6%
1.7
Drake Maye
NE
27
15
55.6%
1.7
Aaron Rodgers
PIT
253
133
52.6%
1.3
Joe Burrow
CIN
77
40
51.9%
1.3
Dak Prescott
DAL
138
71
51.4%
1.2
Tony Romo (ret.)
06-16
125
64
51.2%
1.2
Russell Wilson (ret.)
12-25
202
102
50.5%
1.1
Jordan Love
GB
48
24
50.0%
1.1
Patrick Mahomes
KC
126
62
49.2%
1.0
Drew Brees (ret.)
02-20
283
139
49.1%
1.0
Deshaun Watson
CLE
71
34
47.9%
0.8
Josh Allen
BUF
124
59
47.6%
0.8
Tom Brady (ret.)
01-22
332
156
47.0%
0.7
Kirk Cousins
LV
167
77
46.1%
0.6
Lamar Jackson
BAL
105
48
45.7%
0.6
Jared Goff
DET
151
69
45.7%
0.6
Philip Rivers (ret.)
06-25
243
110
45.3%
0.6
Justin Herbert
LAC
95
43
45.3%
0.6
Jalen Hurts
PHI
81
35
43.2%
0.3
Tua Tagovailoa
ATL
75
32
42.7%
0.3
Peyton Manning (ret.)
98-15
262
111
42.4%
0.3
Matt Ryan (ret.)
08-22
232
96
41.4%
0.1
Ben Roethlisberger (ret.)
04-21
247
101
40.9%
0.1
Matthew Stafford
LAR
238
96
40.3%
0.0
Jameis Winston
NYG
89
34
38.2%
-0.2
Sam Darnold
SEA
90
33
36.7%
-0.4
Daniel Jones
IND
80
29
36.3%
-0.4
CJ Stroud
HOU
45
16
35.6%
-0.5
Andy Dalton
PHI
168
59
35.1%
-0.5
Jayden Daniels
WAS
23
8
34.8%
-0.6
Carson Palmer (ret.)
04-17
179
62
34.6%
-0.6
Cam Newton (ret.)
11-21
144
49
34.0%
-0.6
Ryan Tannehill (ret.)
12-23
150
51
34.0%
-0.6
Carson Wentz
MIN
99
33
33.3%
-0.7
Caleb Williams
CHI
34
11
32.4%
-0.8
Marcus Mariota
WAS
81
26
32.1%
-0.8
Baker Mayfield
TB
120
38
31.7%
-0.9
Kyler Murray
MIN
86
27
31.4%
-0.9
Trevor Lawrence
JAX
77
24
31.2%
-0.9
Andrew Luck (ret.)
12-18
86
26
30.2%
-1.0
Bo Nix
DEN
34
10
29.4%
-1.1
Robert Griffin (ret.)
12-20
41
12
29.3%
-1.1
Geno Smith
NYJ
96
28
29.2%
-1.2
Mac Jones
SF
55
16
29.1%
-1.2
Donovan McNabb (ret.)
99-11
159
46
28.9%
-1.2
Joe Flacco
CIN
200
57
28.5%
-1.2
Jay Cutler (ret.)
06-17
149
42
28.2%
-1.3
Nick Foles (ret.)
12-22
57
16
28.1%
-1.3
Sam Bradford (ret.)
10-18
83
23
27.7%
-1.3
Eli Manning (ret.)
04-19
234
64
27.4%
-1.3
Michael Vick (ret.)
01-15
108
29
26.9%
-1.4
Jacoby Brissett
ARI
64
14
21.9%
-1.9
Mark Sanchez (ret.)
09-18
72
15
20.8%
-2.0
Bryce Younger
CAR
44
9
20.5%
-2.1
Supply: ProFootballReference.com
The Z-score, the final column within the desk above, exhibits a participant’s rating relative to the opposite QBs within the desk and likewise determines the colour tiers. The common good recreation efficiency for the 54 QBs assembled within the desk above is 40%, and a rating of 1.0 means the participant is one normal deviation higher than the NFL common on the place. The ten QBs on the prime of this desk (Purdy, Maye, Rodgers, Burrow, Prescott, Romo, Wilson, Love, Mahomes, Brees) are all at the least one normal deviation higher than the NFL common.
For a given knowledge set, the usual deviation measures how unfold out numbers are from a median worth. In case your set of knowledge (e.g. NFL QBs) exhibits a traditional distribution, then about 68 p.c of NFL gamers are inside one normal deviation of the imply, about 95 p.c are inside two normal deviations, and about 99.7 p.c lie inside three normal deviations. Such a normal deviation is greatest visualized in a traditional distribution curve, an instance of which you’ll be able to see beneath. I’ve included 12 QBs throughout all the z-score spectrum from the desk to higher visualize the usual deviation throughout this pattern.
On this context its additionally vital to acknowledge that there’s typically, however not at all times, a unfavourable correlation between profession size and peak efficiency. 4 examples illustrate this level.
Aaron Rodgers was lighting up the league with a 60.2% “good game percentage” from 2008-2014 earlier than dropping to 39.4% between 2015-2019, after which shifting again as much as 51.8% from 2020-2025.Patrick Mahomes had a equally robust begin, amassing a 58.8% “good game percentage” from 2017-2022 earlier than dropping to 32.6% from 2023-2025.Tom Brady however has been a mannequin of consistency, recording a 47.2% “good game percentage” over the primary half (2001-11) of his profession, and sustaining a 46.6% worth for the second half (2012-22)Eli Manning has been a constant mannequin of mediocrity, attaining a price of simply 27.7% from 2004-2011, after which maintained that sub-par efficiency the remainder of the best way with 27.0% from 2012-2019.
All of this leads us to 4 tiers of passers, based mostly on the z-score values:
Tier one: Peerless Passers (Blue)
The ten QBs on the prime of this desk are all at the least one normal deviation higher than the NFL common. Three are already retired (Brees, Romo, Wilson), 4 are a few of as we speak’s prime veterans (Rodgers, Burrow, Prescott, Mahomes), and three extra would qualify because the NFL’s younger weapons (Purdy, Maye, Love) and their groups seem set to dominate the league for the following decade.
For Cowboys followers, the similarity between Romo and Prescott is nearly uncanny, though they performed in several eras, their good recreation share is nearly an identical and the 2 have been delivering top-tier passing efficiency in Dallas for twenty years, even when that isn’t as widely known because it perhaps must be.
Tier two: Above Common Passers (Inexperienced)
Not fairly on the degree of the highest tier, this tier however incorporates among the greatest names within the QB enterprise with Brady, Peyton Manning, and Roethlisberger, together with among the prime present guys like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson (who’s highly-ranked even with out the inclusion of his floor recreation), Justin Herbert, and Matthew Stafford. All are above common.
Tier three: Overrated Prime Picks (Yellow)
15 QBs right here rank as beneath common passers, and all however three of them (Daniel Jones, Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill) had been picked inside the first three picks of their respective drafts. Seven gamers (Jameis Winston, Carson Palmer, Cam Newton, Caleb Williams, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Trevor Lawrence) are former No.1 general picks, 4 had been the second general choose (CJ Stroud, Jayden Daniels, Carson Wentz, Marcus Mariota), and one (Sam Darnold) was the third general choose.
Their draft pedigree will get these gamers lots of headlines, second, third, and even fourth probabilities, and their draft pedigree additionally means persons are making much more excuses for his or her efficiency (“But look at the number of comeback wins,” “but look at his leadership,” “but he’s the QB of the future”, “but look at the quality of his teammates”), however as pure passers, this tier is solely not excellent.
Tier 4: Retired or ought to retire (Crimson)
The 15 QBs listed below are all at the least one normal deviation beneath common. 9 of them are already retired, the remaining ought to give it some thought; their efficiency merely doesn’t put their groups ready to succeed typically sufficient. And even outdoors of the great recreation share the six energetic guys on this tier all have a profession passer score beneath the 91.4 NFL common passer score in 2025.
On to the principally youthful QBs with lower than 20 begins. I felt that the small pattern dimension may presumably distort the general image, which is why I’m itemizing them individually.
Participant
2026 staff
Video games began
Good video games(>100 passer score)
Good video games (in%)
Z-score
Malik Willis
MIA
6
3
50.0%
1.1
Tyler Shough
NO
9
3
33.3%
-0.7
Will Levis
TEN
19
5
26.3%
-1.5
Jaxson Dart
NYG
12
3
25.0%
-1.6
Michael Penix
ATL
12
3
25.0%
-1.6
Sam Howell
DAL
18
4
22.2%
-1.9
J.J. McCarthy
MIN
10
2
20.0%
-2.1
Cam Ward
TEN
16
2
12.5%
-2.9
Shedeur Sanders
CLE
7
0
0.0%
-4.3
Supply: ProFootballReference.com
Tom Landry famously believed that it takes a rookie three years to totally settle into the NFL and perceive the velocity and complexity of the sport, and that this was very true for quarterbacks. After that, time is up, and lots of the QBs listed below are quick approaching that time. Outdoors of Malik Willis there doesn’t appear to be lots of upside for this group, and the Willis numbers very doubtless have a pattern dimension challenge.
As a result of there are sure to be questions on this, we’re including an additional part as we speak that appears solely at playoff video games, even when pattern dimension points abound and will render all the train ineffective.
Of the 54 quarterbacks in our authentic panel, solely 5 have greater than 20 playoff video games on their document, in order that 20-game restrict goes out the window. I’ve opted as an alternative to decrease the minimal playoff video games to 5, which nonetheless leaves us with 30 QBs to take a look at, however which opens us as much as all kinds of pattern dimension vagaries.
Participant
2026 staff
Playoff video games began
Good video games(>100 passer score)
Good video games (in%)
Nick Foles (ret.)
12-22
6
4
66.7%
Patrick Mahomes
KC
21
13
61.9%
Jalen Hurts
PHI
10
6
60.0%
Baker Mayfield
TB
5
3
60.0%
Russell Wilson (ret.)
12-25
17
10
58.8%
Matt Ryan (ret.)
08-22
10
5
50.0%
Tony Romo (ret.)
06-16
6
3
50.0%
Mark Sanchez (ret.)
09-18
6
3
50.0%
Josh Allen
BUF
15
7
46.7%
Aaron Rodgers
PIT
22
10
45.5%
Eli Manning (ret.)
04-19
11
5
45.5%
Drew Brees (ret.)
02-20
18
8
44.4%
Joe Burrow
CIN
7
3
42.9%
Cam Newton (ret.)
11-21
7
3
42.9%
Ryan Tannehill (ret.)
12-23
5
2
40.0%
Tom Brady (ret.)
01-22
48
19
39.6%
Joe Flacco
CIN
16
6
37.5%
Lamar Jackson
BAL
8
3
37.5%
Philip Rivers (ret.)
06-25
12
4
33.3%
Matthew Stafford
LAR
13
4
30.8%
Jared Goff
DET
10
3
30.0%
Dak Prescott
DAL
7
2
28.6%
Peyton Manning (ret.)
98-15
27
6
22.2%
Ben Roethlisberger (ret.)
04-21
23
5
21.7%
Kirk Cousins
LV
5
1
20.0%
Michael Vick (ret.)
01-15
5
1
20.0%
Donovan McNabb (ret.)
99-11
16
3
18.8%
CJ Stroud
HOU
6
1
16.7%
Brock Purdy
SF
8
1
12.5%
Andrew Luck (ret.)
12-18
8
1
12.5%
Supply: ProFootballReference.com
The most effective playoff QBs by this system are Nick Foles (66.7%), who rode his backup function in in 2018 all the best way to a Tremendous Bowl ring, and Jayden Daniels (66.7%, not on this checklist), who had two 100+ score video games in his three-game playoff run in 2024.
That’s not a ringing endorsement of this checklist and highlights the pattern dimension points right here.
Additionally, with the pattern dimension being what it’s, the margins between the totally different tiers are razor skinny. Working example: Dak Prescott, whose rating must be a bit disappointing for Cowboys followers. Prescott has one playoff recreation (vs. the Rams) with a passer score of 99.2. One additional completion in that recreation would have pushed him above 100, and given him a very good recreation share of 42.9%. One additional cross is the distinction between being within the purple tier or being smack in the midst of the inexperienced tier.
Equally, Nick Foles had a playoff recreation with a 100.1 score. Yet another incomplete cross in that recreation and his good recreation share drops from 66.7% to 50%, that’s how a lot variance is launched via the low pattern dimension.
However it’s additionally not like Prescott hasn’t come underneath criticism for his playoff document, nevertheless it’s price protecting in thoughts that just a few performs right here or there can change total profession narratives, e.g how on earth can Aaron Rodgers full a 36-yard cross on Third-and-20 with 12 seconds left on the clock?
Some veterans like Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Tom Brady don’t precisely look stellar right here, nevertheless it’s price protecting in thoughts that they spent components of their profession in a unique NFL passing period – although that didn’t cease Tony Romo from attaining a 50% good recreation share, albeit with a a lot decrease variety of playoff video games.
Over to you: As a rule, you’ll intuitively know whether or not a set of stats is smart or not. Does this peer comparability match your intestine feeling?
