Nov 23, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears cornerback Nahshon Wright (26) breaks up a go towards Pittsburgh Steelers large receiver Roman Wilson (10) in the course of the second half at Soldier Subject. Necessary Credit score: Mike Dinovo-Imagn Pictures
Since 2015, roughly 45% of NFL playoff groups fail to return to the postseason the subsequent yr. Meaning about six or seven groups qualify for the playoffs after which don’t make it again the next marketing campaign.
So, we ask, who’s it going to be this yr? These are our seven picks from 2025 playoff golf equipment that miss the event in 2026.
Current Risers Face a A lot More durable Highway in 2026
Carolina Panthers large receiver Tetairoa McMillan (4) waits for the subsequent play in the course of the second quarter on Aug. 8, 2025, at Financial institution of America Stadium in Charlotte. The primary-round rookie continued his preseason debut whereas starting his NFL profession with Carolina’s revamped passing assault. Necessary Credit score: Bob Donnan-Imagn Pictures.
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers shockingly reached the postseason final yr within the weak NFC South, and there’s no cause to imagine that the division has markedly improved.
Too, Carolina checked in because the NFL’s Twenty fifth-best staff per DVOA one yr in the past. That translated to eighth-worst. Consider it this manner: primarily based on the numbers, the Panthers had been fortunate to achieve the dance. They gained’t make it a sequel in 2026.
Chicago Bears
Talking of DVOA, Chicago completed sixteenth in 2025 — smack dab within the center. Its season was propped up by an epic playoff overcome Inexperienced Bay, which shouldn’t be discounted. Lastly conquering the Packers was an enormous deal.
Nonetheless, Chicago gained oodles of shut video games final yr, and when the Vikings pulled off the identical magic trick in 2022, they regressed to the imply in 2023, profitable simply seven video games and lacking the playoffs.
That can occur to Chicago.
Denver Broncos
This text isn’t right here to denigrate Denver. Hell, they reached the AFC Championship final yr and would possibly’ve been a Bo Nix damage away from the Tremendous Bowl — and even profitable all of it.
Our idea right here is that the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs will likely be again, resuming their dynastic tendencies, whereas the Los Angeles Chargers pester the Broncos.
Kansas Metropolis and Los Angeles will attain the postseason; Denver will narrowly miss out.
Inexperienced Bay Packers
The Packers mainly acquire the NFC’s seventh seed yearly beneath quarterback Jordan Love. That’s superb, however it proves the membership might be on the cusp of failing to qualify sooner relatively than later. Inexperienced Bay misplaced oodles of gamers to free company, and Micah Parsons in all probability gained’t return till October or November.
Couple that with the competitors degree within the NFC North, and the Packers will end 8-9 or 9-8, snatching the eighth seed, not their treasured seventh.
USA At present‘s Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz lately famous, “With Parsons acknowledging he won’t return from a torn anterior cruciate ligament until at least mid-October, it’s clear that the Packers will have to navigate another season in which they’re not close to full strength.”
The Vikings would possibly even take the Packers’ spot within the event.
New England Patriots
Drake Maye performed buffoonishly within the AFC Championship and Tremendous Bowl. No one actually cared as a result of New England overachieved within the first place. Sure, the Patriots added A.J. Brown by way of commerce with the Philadelphia Eagles, and sure, the Patriots’ protection will play effectively in 2026.
New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel and Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell greet each other after the preseason matchup on Aug. 16, 2025, at U.S. Financial institution Stadium in Minneapolis. The veteran coaches shared a postgame second after evaluating their groups in August exhibition motion. Necessary Credit score: Brad Rempel-Imagn Pictures.
However with head coach Mike Vrabel’s popularity a bit sullied, and with New England having one of many best schedules in NFL historical past final yr, it is going to crash again to earth in 2026 and end 8-9.
FOX Sports activities‘ Will Hill wrote in April, “The Patriots additionally notably had one of many simpler schedules in league historical past final season, as their opponents had a mixed profitable share of .366, the bottom mark within the NFL since 1999. That won’t solely change this yr however accomplish that in dramatic vogue, because the Patriots will now battle a first-place schedule. “
Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are due for a down season. Quickly, their wage cap woes will come residence to roost, and plenty of have hinted this offseason that Jalen Hurts can’t faithfully function a pass-happy offense. There’s one thing simply not proper concerning the Eagles.
In the meantime, the Dallas Cowboys are hungry to achieve the playoffs once more, Jayden Daniel is again and wholesome within the nation’s capital, and the New York Giants employed John Harbaugh.
Houston Texans defensive finish Jonathan Greenard (52) settles into his stance earlier than the snap on Oct. 24, 2021, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale throughout a recreation towards the Arizona Cardinals. The sting rusher ready to assault the pocket whereas anchoring Houston’s defensive entrance. Necessary Credit score: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Pictures.
The Eagles will miss the playoffs for the primary time since 2020. It’s time.
Pittsburgh Steelers
It might simply really feel poetic if the Steelers suffered their first dropping season in 20 years the second Mike Tomlin left city. Aaron Rodgers is again, although, and he’ll distribute the ball amongst DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman, rookie Germie Bernard, together with working backs Jaylen Warren and Rico Dowdle.
The Steelers’ protection will stay formidable, however the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens will end in first and second place within the AFC North, leaving the Steelers round 7-10 or 8-9 in third place.
Then, in fact, Rodgers will maintain everybody hostage together with his 2027 offseason decision-making course of, despite the fact that he has already introduced that this season is his final. You understand the drill.
Dustin Baker is a novelist and political scientist. His second novel, The Invaders , is out now. So is … Extra about Dustin Baker
