Every Wednesday morning I’ll cowl 4 areas as they apply to Tampa Bay: 1. a brief movie breakdown, 2. a finance angle, 3. a glance ahead at what’s to come back, and 4. a little bit of enjoyable.
Movie: Jacob Parrish As An Exterior Nook
In a earlier version of Cowl 4 I checked out Benjamin Morrison’s rookie season and gave my trustworthy ideas on how he may develop in yr two. However Morrison isn’t assured the beginning function reverse Zyon McCollum. The Bucs have been trustworthy that he’s competing for that spot with fellow 2025 draftee Jacob Parrish, who’s means forward of Morrison in that battle. Not simply because Morrison missed extra time this offseason – the final three practices – with a hamstring damage, however as a result of missed a month of coaching camp final yr, all three preseason video games and 7 common season video games as a result of hamstring accidents.
Parrish was chosen one spherical behind Morrison, however had a stronger rookie marketing campaign, taking part in primarily from the slot. In the direction of the top of the season he was pushed outdoors as a result of accidents to Jamel Dean, Morrison and McCollum, and ended up taking part in roughly a 3rd of his snaps on the surface.
After some genuinely constructive play from Parrish final yr and a few high-profile losses from Morrison I’m of the idea that Parrish has the within monitor on the beginning outdoors gig in the intervening time.
Probably the most thrilling a part of Parrish’s play is his athleticism. It oozes on nearly each rep. His testing velocity (4.35) interprets to the sector and it exhibits up on extra than simply lengthy cross performs deep down the sector the place he retains up with the quickest receivers within the discipline. Much more thrilling is how he makes use of his velocity functionally in opposition to early breaking routes to pounce on outs, curls and comebacks.
An under-recognized a part of cornerback play isn’t simply how briskly a participant can spool as much as his prime velocity, but in addition how shortly he can decelerate and redirect. Parrish can plant and go with out a collect step, which exhibits up most on off protection, the place his click on and shut turns cushion right into a weapon. When the ball comes out, he’s already driving, and that closing velocity makes him a ball manufacturing asset. We noticed it all through final season as he made some key cross breakups whereas additionally logging his first interception of the yr in Week 18.
Parrish additionally redirects to a number of angles with out shedding velocity, so double strikes and onerous stems don’t stack in opposition to him the way in which they do on stiffer corners. Put it collectively and he can run with the very best receivers in man protection, matching breaks as a substitute of guessing at them.
Even when matched up in opposition to larger receivers he exhibits no concern in urgent. Parrish logged plus press snaps in opposition to each Tet McMillan and Darren Waller, each simply dwarfing Parrish’s sub-6-foot body. It didn’t matter. What he lacked in requisite dimension he made up for with fast ft to remain hooked up for a number of yards whereas slowing every of their routes.
However the place his body didn’t restrict him in press it did present up on the catchpoint the place his size damage him on the prime of the catchpoint on a couple of rep – most notably in opposition to Dareke Younger in Seattle for a 36-yard play.
That must be an space the Bucs are prepared to concede some further catches over an extended nook, whereas hoping he makes up for it by forcing quarterbacks to show down as a result of his part and protection was legitimately a blanket all through a lot of the yr on the surface.
That is backed up by the numbers the place his common separation allowed when focused (2.4 yards) and his snaps per goal (8.8) had been higher than the league common, however his catch price allowed was additionally greater than the common outdoors nook and better than anticipated.
Shifting to areas of his recreation that may stand to enhance and are coachable, two issues stand out to me.
First, he can bail to half-turn too shortly when he’s taking part in deep third in Cowl 3. When this occurs Parrish typically leaves himself open to being out of place on a nook or deep out route. This was exploited a number of occasions final yr, most notably by McMillan and the Panthers. The constructive from that is that on different reps when he trusted his backpedal later within the rep he averted the stem pressure and performed the ball higher. He simply has to belief the pedal extra.
The second difficulty is how Parrish performs crossers in zone-match conditions. He is usually a bit too affected person when pinching these routes from a deep alignment, leaving ample area and time for quarterbacks to search out these deep over routes for chunk positive aspects. If Parrish can decide to slicing these routes like he does on the perimeter stuff he’ll stage up from his rookie marketing campaign.
Bucs CB Jacob Parrish and 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
As a run defender he brings the identical aggressive tenacity that helped Parrish work as a net-positive as a slot nook. He assaults the perimeters and perimeter screens with a renegade perspective and throws his complete physique into his deal with efforts. However his smaller body exhibits up from time-to-time resulting in an inflated missed deal with price and extra drag down stops than one would really like.
Coming again to the place the Bucs have signaled they wish to take the protection – a extra press-man heavy unit the place Todd Bowles can get extra inventive within the back-seven and lighten the load on the entrance – Parrish profiles completely. Regardless of his stature Parrish can press and carry even the largest eligibles. His elite athleticism helps him each in zone with click on and shut in addition to man the place he can shadow even essentially the most shifty receivers. And Parrish’s plus communication abilities, and basic smarts will carry the scheme wants.
I’ve excessive hopes for Parrish transferring ahead and assume he cements himself as one of many beginning outdoors cornerbacks on this protection sooner fairly than later.
Finance: Bucky Irving’s Early Valuation
After a stellar rookie season, Bucky Irving appeared destined for stardom and a large payday in some unspecified time in the future sooner or later. Over 1,100 dashing yards at 5.4 yards per clip and 1,500 complete yards with eight touchdowns.
However quick ahead one yr and accidents robbed Irving of a lot of his sophomore marketing campaign. Irving regressed in each measurable means:
This makes Irving one of many hardest valuations on the workforce proper now. Two seasons. One marked by unimaginable play and manufacturing plus a robust monitor file of well being. The opposite was mainly the alternative in each doable means. Even Irving’s trademarked means to bounce off of tackles fell off a cliff to the tune of just about a ten% discount.
Going off of simply his rookie season Irving’s APY worth would doubtless be round $13 million per yr. However simply his 2025, that quantity is nearer to $7 million – which is the going price for a complementary again with upside (see: Gainwell, Kenny).
However these two seasons don’t function in isolation. They have to be evaluated as an entire. And two-year pattern sizes are inclined to have essentially the most predictive worth in my modeling system. So with that in thoughts listed below are a few of Irving’s closest comps over that time-frame.
The cap-adjusted APY (common per yr) common of those three comps is $12.4 million. Irving’s draft pedigree trails the remainder of the group, who had been all Day 2 picks, whereas he was a Day 3 choice. That ought to steadiness together with his present youthful age to maintain the projections fairly secure.
Whereas the common of the comps is $12.4 million, the unfold is a fairly giant quantity, starting from $19.2 million on the excessive finish to $3.7 million on the low. Given that giant hole I lean again into my modelling which locations his worth at $10.25 million per yr.
However a part of valuation is accounting for directionality. Kenneth Walker III having an analogous two-year pattern however coming off of a robust season would undoubtedly safe a bigger deal than Irving coming off of a disappointing marketing campaign.
Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Photograph by: IMAGN Photos – Sam Navarro
Factoring his 2025 season with a projected APY of $7.08 million and a cap-adjusted comp set of $5.11 million places his 2025 manufacturing valuation at only a hair over $6 million. Bringing all of this collectively I’d peg Irving’s present valuation at $8.5 million. That might make him the Sixteenth-highest paid operating again within the league – proper between Ashton Jeanty and Chuba Hubbard.
The 2026 season is a pivotal yr for Irving. Can he re-establish himself as a lead again worthy of an eight-figure APY? Or will he settle into the secondary market of Gainwell-esque backs who function as part of a extra committee-based backfield?
Forecast: The Bucs Clear 50 Sacks This Season
Fifty sacks. Todd Bowles has been chasing this one for years. Aside from final yr’s down efficiency of 37, Tampa Bay has been between 44 and 48 sacks each season since Bowles got here to Tampa Bay in 2019 as Bruce Arians’ defensive coordinator.
His high-blitz, stunt-heavy, pressure-by-committee method has traditionally put his defenses within the prime 5-10 of the league in taking down quarterbacks. The 2024 group completed sixth within the NFL with 46 sacks and didn’t roster a single participant inside the highest 35 in particular person sacks. Six Bucs’ posted 4 or extra quarterback takedowns. He sometimes hasn’t requested a single cross rusher to hold the load for everybody just like the Browns did with Myles Garrett or the Raiders do with Maxx Crosby.
That mannequin requires a deep bench of satisfactory cross rushers. And final yr the dearth of depth caught up with the workforce. This yr they could have the very best and deepest defensive entrance for the reason that 2020-2021 heydays.
The 2-deep of their entrance contains former first-round picks Rueben Bain Jr., Vita Vea and Calijah Kancey together with an ascending Yaya Diaby – who could also be able to take the final step to stardom this yr. Add in David Walker, who the Bucs are nonetheless extremely excessive on, and free agent additions Al-Quadin Muhammad and A’Shawn Robinson and it is a unit that may endure a loss or two, in contrast to previous variations of the workforce.
With that in thoughts, right here is my forecast for the Bucs’ record-setting 2026 marketing campaign assuming relative well being from the bunch.
Beginning 4
Calijah Kancey – 375 cross rush snaps, 39 pressures, 6.5 sacksYaya Diaby – 435 cross rush snaps, 61 pressures, 10 sacksVita Vea – 505 cross rush snaps, 51 pressures, 5.5 sacksRueben Bain Jr. – 405 cross rush snaps, 45 pressures, 6.5 sacks
That 28.5 sacks from the beginning entrance goes a protracted approach to getting a protection to the vaunted 50 aim. I’m hoping for well being from Kancey as a result of he’s the important thing. Him plus Bain can actually create a chaos setting that builds sacks for the group as an entire.
Bucs DT Calijah Kancey – Cliff Welch/PR
Talking of Bain, 6.5 sacks from a rookie is a very stable entry into the NFL. However I’ll preserve till confirmed in any other case that his greatest contributions will likely be creating for these round him. On the finish of his rookie contract many might say he’s disappointing as a result of his private stats may not be gaudy. However the protection as an entire is more likely to play higher due to him.
Diaby will get to double digits on this forecast, cementing him as one of many 20 greatest cross rushers within the NFL as his conversion price improves (due to Bain!) whereas his strain price stays robust.
Major Backups
David Walker – 235 cross rush snaps, 24 pressures, 4.0 sacksAl-Quadin Muhammad – 150 cross rush snaps, 21 pressures, 3.5 sacksA’Shawn Robinson – 325 cross rush snaps, 24 pressures, 3.5 sacksElijah Roberts – 315 cross rush snaps, 27 pressures, 3.5 sacks
This group actually embodies the “four-as-one” mantra with all 4 gamers logging between 20 and 30 pressures and three.5 to 4 sacks. The online result’s 14.5 quarterback drops pushing the workforce complete to 43.0.
Two keys right here. One is that Walker out-snaps AQM as a result of he has the upper ceiling and extra well-rounded recreation. The Bucs deploy Muhammad in extraordinarily advantageous spots which helps juice his strain price to 14% whereas Walker’s is a more true and extra modest 10.2%. Secondly, Roberts is a simpler cross rusher who logs barely much less snaps than the veteran Robinson.
Bucs OLB David Walker – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Key Fifth Males
Anthony Nelson – 58 cross rush snaps, 6 pressures, one sackDeMonte Capehart – 47 cross rush snaps, 4 pressures, 0.5 sacks
I’ve Nelson and Capehart because the fifth-man for the surface linebacker and edge rooms, respectively. And their low snap counts nonetheless yield one other 1.5 sacks to push the grand complete to 44.5.
Meaning the workforce wants one other six sacks from the linebacker and secondary rooms. With the additions of Josiah Trotter – the Bucs’ greatest blitzing linebacker since Devin White left Tampa unceremoniously – and Keionte Scott, who could also be the very best blitzing slot they’ve had underneath Bowles, there may be ample room for the 2 models to compile the additional six sacks.
I imagine Scott will web 2.0 on his personal with one other 3.0 from Trotter. And between Tykee Smith and Antoine Winfield Jr. pressuring on key downs all through the season one other two sacks appear extra doubtless than doable.
That will get the workforce to 51.5, mainly 3.0 per recreation. Common supervisor Jason Licht has amassed a cavalcade of expertise that not solely suits Bowles’ scheme, however elevates one another. The online consequence this yr may very well be particular whereas concurrently netting a workforce file.
Enjoyable Fourth Down: Bucs Crossword Puzzle
Throughout 3. Bucs’ greatest rival 5. Participant simply forward of Mike Evans on the all-time receiving TD checklist 7. Tiny Division III faculty that produced Bucs All-Professional guard Ali Marpet 8. Stadium the Bucs closed by beating the Eagles for the 2002 NFC title 11. Winking pirate on the Bucs’ authentic creamsicle helmets
Down
1. Bucs’ first stadium, Large ___2. Bald HOF Bucs participant whose has at all times had a second profession slicing hair ready for him3. Seventh-round slot receiver and returner from Oregon State4. If Cody Mauch had been ever to be forged in a DreamWorks film, he would assuredly be this dragon6. Jon Gruden’s favourite automobile since 20059. First draft choose in Bucs historical past, final name10. Quantity worn by Warren Sapp’s greatest rival in Tampa Bay
