The Bucs enter the 2026 season with a altering of the guard at offensive coordinator. In switching out Josh Grizzard for Zac Robinson, the idea has been that Tampa Bay’s offense will run equally to the way it did in 2024 below Liam Coen. Provided that Robinson and Coen frolicked collectively in Los Angeles with head coach and offensive guru Sean McVay and each labored with quarterback Baker Mayfield, there’s already a blueprint for achievement.
How a lot of Liam Coen’s blueprint Robinson retains – and the place he places his personal stamp on the offense – will form the Bucs’ identification.
A current evaluation into one key play-calling metric outlines what might be totally different, and there are different variables to think about, similar to precisely what Robinson’s technique might be.
The Zac Robinson Tendency That Separates Him From Different Play-Callers
Few issues are extra irritating than watching predictable play-calling.
Extra particularly, watching an offense function with run-run-pass logic on a down-to-down foundation, no matter whether or not issues are working or not. That turns into stale, and over time an offensive coordinator has to reply for the shortage of innovation. There have been stretches final season when Tampa Bay’s offense turned extra predictable, significantly when the group leaned closely into the operating sport late within the yr.
Based mostly on a chart made by NFL analyst Ryan Paganetti, that pattern will cease with Zac Robinson.
Bucs OC Zac Robinson – Picture by: Matt Matera/PR
Paganetti factors to Fantasy Factors Information displaying Robinson leads the league in cross price on second-and-10 conditions following first-down incompletions in his two seasons in Atlanta.
The NFL’s commonest overcorrection:
Working on 2nd and 10 after a 1st down incompletion.
Since 2022, passes on this spot have crushed runs:
+16.6 share factors in success price+0.23 EPA/play+6.5 share factors in eventual collection success price
Listed here are the 2026 play… pic.twitter.com/d1YzTygEjH
Robinson posted an 82.9% cross price on 76 second-and-10 performs over two seasons, that means he selected to throw greater than twice per sport reasonably than routinely flip to the operating sport after a failed first-down play.
It’s price noting that even with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier obtainable within the backfield, he constantly selected to place the ball in his quarterback’s palms. Diving deeper into the numbers illustrates that it’s greater than only a fashion choice; it’s a philosophical precept of a Sean McVay offense. The Rams ranked fourth on the checklist, whereas Liam Coen’s Jaguars ranked ninth. Coen’s numbers embrace his time with the Bucs, backing up that he used this one offensive pattern to assist shift the result of drives.
On the floor, this revelation won’t appear to be a lot.
As Paganetti factors out, there’s a variety of success following what Robinson does so nicely. Passing on second-and-10 after incompletions results in a 16.6% enhance in success price, 0.23 EPA/play, and a 6.5% enhance in eventual collection success price.
Bucs OC Zac Robinson – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
Second-and-10 is usually thought-about a passing down as a result of the offense has failed to realize yardage on first down, however many play-callers nonetheless lean towards operating the ball to keep away from third-and-long conditions. A destructive first-down play doesn’t routinely imply the offense has to turn into conservative. As a substitute of enjoying for manageable third downs, his willingness to throw in that spot and maintain the ball in Baker Mayfield’s palms will give the gunslinger confidence in erasing destructive performs and assist him set up a rhythm as the sport goes on.
With Mayfield needing to have extra effectivity throwing the soccer in comparison with final season, these situations line up as alternatives to bounce again from a misfire and belief in what calls Robinson is dialing up.
Breaking Down Zac Robinson Offensive Identification And Core Philosophy
After taking in all the things above, one could be questioning what else the Bucs offense has in retailer below Zac Robinson.
To offer a better look, I used SumerSports information to research how Robinson balances the cross and run, personnel groupings, formations, run ideas, and play motion and pink zone cross charges. This gives a glimpse into what may be anticipated from Tampa Bay’s offense in 2026.
2024 Falcons Offense – Establishing An Offensive Identification
In his first season calling performs for the Falcons, Zac Robinson constructed a balanced offense that leaned barely towards the cross. The Falcons ran 1,086 offensive performs, throwing on 54.4% of them whereas operating the ball on 45.6%.
Bucs DT Vita Vea and Falcons RB Bijan Robinson – Picture by: IMAGN Photos
Atlanta operated primarily out of unfold formations. Robinson referred to as 11 personnel (one operating again, one tight finish and three huge receivers) 86.2% of offensive snaps, making it the league’s most 11-personnel-heavy offense. He hardly ever ventured into heavier groupings, utilizing 12 personnel simply 10.4% of the time.
The formations mirrored that philosophy. Almost half of Atlanta’s offensive snaps got here from balanced 2×2 alignments (47%), with two eligible receivers break up to every facet of the formation. Robinson additionally ceaselessly utilized journeys formations, lining up three receivers to at least one facet and one to the opposite. The Falcons used 1×3 formations (22.9%), with the lone receiver on the left and three cross catchers to the best, and three×1 formations (21%), which merely flipped that alignment.
The operating sport additionally established a transparent identification from the outset. Extensive zone ideas accounted for 59% of Atlanta’s speeding makes an attempt, dwarfing man/hole schemes (16%) and inside zone (10.9%).
One space the place Robinson was comparatively conservative was play-action, using it on simply 14.4% of drop backs. Understand that the Falcons used a great deal of pistol formation as a result of they’d two motionless quarterbacks in veteran Kirk Cousins and 2025 first-round choose Michael Penix Jr. Contained in the pink zone, Atlanta additionally leaned closely on the operating sport, throwing on solely 42% of its scoring-area performs.
2025 Falcons Offense – Identical Philosophy, New Wrinkles
Though Zac Robinson’s total offensive stability remained nearly equivalent in 12 months 2 – passing on 54.5% of 1,048 offensive performs – his method turned far more different.
Essentially the most dramatic shift got here with personnel utilization.
After relying virtually solely on 11 personnel throughout his first season, Robinson diversified the Falcons offense considerably. Utilization of 11 personnel dropped drastically from 86.2% to 45.1%, whereas 12 personnel practically quadrupled to 38.2%, which was the second-highest mark within the league. This was obligatory in 2025 attributable to star huge receiver Drake London lacking 5 video games attributable to a knee harm and the Falcons’ lack of high quality depth at huge receiver.
Former Falcons QB Kirk Cousins and OC Zac Robinson – IMAGN Photos – Mark J. Rebilas
Atlanta additionally included 21 personnel (two operating backs, one tight finish) on 9.2% of its snaps and added 13 personnel packages (one operating again, three tight ends) 6.7% of the time, giving defenses a diversified set of seems to be earlier than the snap.
Regardless of these adjustments, Robinson’s total formation preferences remained largely intact. The Falcons continued to favor balanced 2×2 units (45.8%), whereas 1×3 formations elevated barely to 23.2%. The three×1 alignments dipped modestly from 21% to 17%.
In the meantime, his speeding philosophy by no means modified.
Extensive zone remained the muse of Atlanta’s operating sport, growing barely to 60.4% of speeding ideas. Pewter Report’s Josh Queipo just lately outlined how a lot of a staple it’s inside Robinson’s offense and the way the Bucs can replicate it with their personnel. No matter personnel grouping, he continued to construct his offense round a zone-blocking scheme.
The passing sport, nonetheless, turned extra subtle.
Robinson elevated his play-action utilization from 14.4% to 21.7% of drop backs – a 50% enhance. That is sensible as he turned extra snug marrying his huge zone operating sport to complementary passing ideas as an alternative of treating them as separate items of the offense. The Falcons additionally turned far much less predictable in scoring territory, throwing on 48.6% of their pink zone performs after leaning closely on the run the earlier season.
What All This Means For The 2026 Bucs Offense
The most important takeaway from Zac Robinson’s two years with the Falcons is that his core philosophy doesn’t fluctuate.
Robinson didn’t abandon his offensive identification between 2024 and 2025. He merely discovered extra methods to current it, constantly sustaining an virtually equivalent run-pass stability whereas counting on huge zone ideas because the spine of the operating sport. These ideas seem like non-negotiable no matter personnel, however what did change was how Robinson packaged the offense.
His willingness to dramatically develop his personnel groupings in 12 months 2 exhibits he can tailor the scheme to the strengths of his roster reasonably than forcing gamers into one system. It’s the similar “players over plays” mantra Liam Coen usually referenced throughout his time in Tampa Bay. The elevated use of heavier personnel, mixed with a considerable bounce in play-action and a extra balanced method within the pink zone, factors to a play-caller who grew extra snug layering wrinkles into his offense.
For the Bucs, these are encouraging indicators.
Bucs OC Zac Robinson, cross sport coordinator TJ Yates and QB Baker Mayfield – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
Robinson’s offense has an outlined spine, however his two seasons in Atlanta counsel he’s not married to at least one presentation. If something, his evolution with the Falcons confirmed a coordinator changing into extra a number of, extra unpredictable and extra prepared to make use of totally different personnel packages to create favorable matchups whereas staying true to what defines his scheme.
Fortuitously for him, the Bucs might have already got the personnel to unlock each model of his offense.
Early indications are that Robinson has the personnel to function successfully from unfold formations, significantly in 11 personnel seems to be. That can make good use of one of many league’s deeper and extra versatile receiver rooms.
Chris Godwin Jr. is aiming to return to kind within the slot, whereas rookie Ted Hurst offers a real X receiver on the skin. Emeka Egbuka and Jalen McMillan can line up in numerous spots, giving Robinson the liberty to maneuver them between the slot and perimeter relying on the matchup. Then there’s Tez Johnson, who’s one other weapon able to stretching defenses vertically and horizontally.
Bucs OC Zac Robinson – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
In terms of the tight finish room, it has sufficient serviceable blockers (Cade Otton, Payne Durham, and Ko Kieft) for heavier personnel packages, though it will be a disservice to prominently function it and depart different playmakers sidelined.
Bucky Irving has confirmed to be an explosive operating again able to altering path, creating explosive performs and making defenders miss whereas being equally harmful catching the soccer. Kenny Gainwell brings lots of those self same traits as one other succesful runner and confirmed receiving risk, and Sean Tucker provides an influence dimension in short-yardage and goal-line duties.
Think about 21 personnel with Tucker alongside both Irving or Gainwell. Defenses must account for Tucker’s downhill operating skill whereas respecting Irving’s or Gainwell’s skill to movement out huge, catch passes out of the backfield or function the ball service themselves. These seems to be complement Robinson’s zone-running construction whereas creating ultimate alternatives for play-action and matchup manipulation.
Whether or not Zac Robinson leans extra closely on 11 personnel once more or continues the diversified method he developed in Atlanta, one factor appears clear: Tampa Bay’s offensive roster provides him the pliability to do each. If his time with the Falcons was about proving his offensive philosophy works, his first season with the Bucs might be about exploring simply what number of other ways he can deploy it.
