The Day After the Day After: The Houston Texans, the late bye and the remainder of the NFL season

The Day After the Day After…when the uncooked, instant feelings from the aftermath of a recreation diminish into the realm of readability and the proverbial (or literal) hangover now not haunts the thoughts. With that, a evaluation of Week 14:

As most are conscious, the Houston Texans didn’t play this previous week, getting the newest potential bye this season. Once they return to motion, they enter maybe essentially the most troublesome stretch of video games in group historical past, beginning with a December 15 residence date towards the Miami Dolphins, adopted by a brief turnaround for a Saturday afternoon street recreation towards the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, after which having an excellent shorter turnaround time to prepare for a Wednesday Christmas afternoon tilt towards the Baltimore Ravens. Completely no stress on a group that hasn’t fairly lived as much as its preseason Tremendous Bowl promise, proper?

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Watch the fates of Baltimore and LA: Houston presently holds the 4-seed within the AFC, that means that they are going to host the Wild Card group with the perfect report. Proper now, that struggle rests between primarily the Baltimore Ravens (8-5) and the Los Angeles Chargers (8-5). The Denver Broncos are additionally at 8-5, however they lose the tiebreakers with Baltimore and LA at this level. The Chargers, by advantage of their most up-to-date loss to Kansas Metropolis, can solely get into the playoffs as a wild card. Whereas Herbert is a top quality starter, and Jim Harbaugh continues to indicate that Spanos really made a good move, they enter the stretch run with out JK Dobbins, a key part of their operating recreation. Baltimore at the least nonetheless has a theoretical probability to win the AFC North, however path the Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 video games, and the Steelers have a recreation in hand. Possible they are going to open the playoffs on the street.

Neither matchup can be splendid for Houston. Houston will attempt to overcome a Harbaugh on Christmas, after they host the Ravens. Nonetheless, Houston’s run protection, whereas not statistically horrible, isn’t as robust as final season. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry might make life actually, actually troublesome for Houston on Christmas, and in a possible rematch on Wild Card Weekend. The Chargers’ protection is greater than able to giving the weak Texans’ O-line some main fear, and Herbert is a QB that may go off in a one-game setting. A lot is dependent upon the Texans offense discovering a point of consistency within the second half of video games and within the pink zone. For a quarterback mired in a sophomore hunch like Stroud, understanding that your doubtless playoff destiny rests on overcoming a Harbaugh-coached group, which he’s 0-4 towards lifetime (between school and the NFL) isn’t reassuring. For reference, the Ravens maintain the tiebreakers over the Chargers and Broncos.

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The AFC South isn’t secured: Oh, then there may be the small matter of the AFC South nonetheless sorta being up for grabs. That Houston swept the season collection towards the one different group within the division with a pulse actually, actually helps. The de facto three-game lead does a lot to engender confidence that Houston shall be within the playoffs. But, the Indianapolis Colts are removed from lifeless. Since they introduced Anthony Richardson again into the lineup, the Colts have proven exceptional enchancment. The Colts’ schedule units up pretty nicely for a late run. Their largest recreation is subsequent week towards the Denver Broncos (who presently sit within the 7-spot for the Wild Card). If the Colts win that recreation, the ultimate three video games for the Colts: Tennessee Titans, New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars. Three groups vying for the #1 choose within the draft. It’s potential that the Colts run the desk. If that occurs, and Houston loses out (not an impossibility) or they end 1-3, then the Colts overtake the Texans, host the Wild Card, and Houston misses the playoffs for the fourth time in 5 years.

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A 2-2 end is a should. As said earlier than, Houston has stress to even make the playoffs. Positive, they are going to be robust favorites towards Miami and Tennessee. It’s potential they might steal a recreation towards KC and/or Baltimore, however the way in which Houston’s performed thus far of the 12 months, they are going to doubtless open as stable underdogs in each nationally televised affairs. If Houston goes 2-2, they are going to sit at 10-7. The Colts, ought to they win out, can even end at 10-7. Nonetheless, the tiebreaker goes to Houston. Houston is in good condition, however they want at the least a .500 end, not solely to safe the division, however to additionally break the AFC South Champions curse and instill some semblance of confidence earlier than going into the playoffs.

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Roster Motion: With the suspension of Al-Shaair, the Texans might need been anticipated so as to add a LB to the present roster, both from the follow squad or a free agent, at the least for depth functions. But, as of this writing, the Texans haven’t finished so. Whereas coaches stay optimistic about Christian Harris’ return, particularly since he was activated from the Injured Record this Monday, the group will proceed to depend on Henry To’oTo’o, Neville Hewitt, Jake Hansen, current in-season acquisition Devin White, Del’Shawn Phillips and Jamal Hill. A stable group of linebackers, however not one that may instill any deep considerations with opposing offenses. Our bodies are there, however high quality isn’t as assured. Harris might want to work himself into recreation form, which is able to take time. Even To’oTo’o, who exhibits some elevated play-making talent, is susceptible to concussions, which implies the LB corps could possibly be that a lot thinner. Possibly one other follow squad physique will get elevated for depth, however the Texans appear content material with the our bodies they’ve for the LB place. How they do towards forces like Mostert, Achane, Kelce, Pacheco, Henry and Jackson sans Al-Shaair? TBD.

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Houston’s Heel Flip: A Houston group hated by these exterior of the 713 space code? That’s potential? Yep, the Texans went shortly from feel-good story to a group that almost all hope lose and lose badly. The Al-Shaair penalty opened up a Pandora’s Field of feelings, most of them detrimental in direction of Houston. The Texans’ protection of Al-Shaair rubbed many the mistaken approach. Issue that the Texans haven’t precisely lived as much as their lofty preseason expectations, and the frustration is manifesting into resentment. In fact, the Astros made certain to have a World Championship and a number of other different trophies on their cabinets earlier than turning into the villain of the baseball world. The Texans made the flip with however one divisional crown. Maybe if Stroud can recapture a few of the rookie magic, this adjustments (and if Houston can beat Kansas Metropolis, that may additionally assist), however for now, the Texans, whereas not essentially the most hated group, aren’t too far down the record.

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FUN WITH NUMBERS:

10-12: The Houston Texans’ all-time report in video games following a scheduled bye. Every week off hasn’t all the time led to nice success. Below the Ryans’ regime, the Texans got here off their bye week to lose on a walk-off FG in a sloppy rock-fight towards the beforehand winless Panthers. Whereas that recreation was on the street, the Texans hope historical past doesn’t repeat itself.

No Recreation Balls or Punishments of Idiocy this week. After the Al-Shaair bruhaha, Houston usually stayed out of the headlines, for higher or worse. That adjustments this coming Sunday, midday CST, as Houston hosts the Miami Dolphins at NRG. See you there.