It’s admirable what Bucs offensive coordinator Liam Coen and quarterback Baker Mayfield have been capable of accomplish this yr with out the pillars of offense that they had initially counted on on the outset of the season. Make no mistake, basic supervisor Jason Licht had constructed this offense to depend on a powerful offensive line and two top-tier large receivers in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. When each Evans and Godwin went down in every week eight loss to the Ravens and it grew to become evident the offense can be with out each for no less than a month, and within the case of Godwin your complete yr, questions abounded as to how efficient the crew can be at producing factors.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Photograph by: USA Right this moment
However the Bucs offense saved shifting ahead. The run sport improved and Mayfield discovered a WR1 in his tight finish Cade Otton. The crew was capable of greater than tread water throughout Evans’ month-long absence as he nursed a hamstring damage.
Since his return, Evans has as soon as once more returned to from as an elite receiver. Over the previous three video games he has 17 catches, 255 yards and a landing. His effectivity has been particularly spectacular, averaging 3.00 yards per route run. However questions nonetheless stay surrounding the Bucs passing assault.
Otton went from a high-target engine for Tampa Bay’s aerial assault to extra of an afterthought. And no different receiver has had an “eye-popping” sport. However that doesn’t imply the receiving corps hasn’t discovered its groove. And it doesn’t imply this group isn’t ok to be ok.
Contemplate this. Since Evans’ return to the lineup in week 12 the Bucs’ prime 4 non-running again receivers have generated 591 receiving yards on a complete of 333 routes for a mean of 1.77 yards/route run. This consists of receivers Sterling Shepard and Jalen McMillan in addition to Otton.
Let’s examine that yds/rr mark to 5 of the highest passing assaults within the NFL this season.
The Bucs are nearly smack dab within the center. Now, granted Evans is doing the heavy lifting. However to not an outlier-like price. His receiving yards output over this, admittedly small, three-game pattern is 43% of that group’s complete. That could be a greater price than that of the highest receiver in Seattle (36%), Atlanta (31%) or Detroit (36%), however it is usually smaller than the reliance Cincinnati (49%) and Minnesota (48%) have positioned on their prime receivers. And to be clear, all of this excludes the influence of working backs on these crew’s passing assaults.
And there the Bucs really shine.
Bucs Receivers Deliver Extra Than Meets The Eye
Over this time interval Sterling Shepard has emerged as a really succesful WR2, averaging 1.68 yards per route run whereas displaying explosiveness out and in of his cuts, an aggressive mindset on the catch level. He additionally has completed a stable job of taking up the WR display position in Liam Coen’s offense. Regardless of his smaller body, he has caught seven of his 9 contested catch alternatives whereas averaging 6.7 targets per sport.
Bucs WR Sterling Shepard – Photograph by: USA Right this moment
Jalen McMillan has been the breakout performer. After making a clutch catch in additional time in opposition to the Panthers in Week 13, McMillan matched his career-highs with seven targets and 4 catches in opposition to the Raiders final week. He additionally set a brand new career-high with two touchdowns.
That sport helped deliver his submit bye-week yards per route run complete to 1.12 with an arrow firmly pointed up on his go-forward outlook. McMillan is changing into extra snug within the offense, and it has proven not too long ago in his route working. His pacing appears a lot improved whereas he seems extra assured in his cuts.
There’s an improved rapport between him and Baker Mayfield, and you’ll see belief constructing from the quarterback. He’ll nonetheless must work on his potential to catch by means of contact as a result of on the NFL stage it’s close to inconceivable to win constantly with separation and I don’t see him with the ceiling required to take action. However it appears just like the Bucs can begin to depend on him as a stable WR3 down the stretch right here.
Cade Otton is the wild card. It would shock some to seek out out that his 1.32 yds/rr mark over the previous three weeks matches his season-long complete and is over 30% higher than both of his first two seasons within the league. However when you think about that three-game tempo over a whole season would put him at a career-high 640 yards it begins to spherical into type.
Bucs TE Cade Otton – Photograph by: USA Right this moment
The Bucs have additionally been utilizing Otton in a barely completely different approach not too long ago. His common depth of goal for the season is a career-low 5.7. However in two of the previous three weeks that quantity has cleared 9, and final week it spiked to 12.3. He might not be seeing the identical variety of targets, however his 15.0 yards per catch reveals when he’s getting the ball he’s making it rely.
Otton will completely have to enhance his reliability to get again to being a extra voluminous a part of the offense. Professional Soccer Focus has credited him with seven drops on the season. That’s tied for the fourth-highest mark within the NFL. And PFF are notoriously beneficiant graders on this specific class. Realistically, his drop complete ought to be round 10-12. His 10.9% drop price is seventh within the league amongst certified gamers.
Liam Coen spoke about it final week when Pewter Report’s Adam Slivon requested him about getting Otton extra concerned within the offense.
“Yeah, I think he’s got to catch the ball a little bit more consistently, as well,” Coen mentioned. “I think he knows that. We’ve got to continue to get him in some favorable matchups and give him some more opportunities, but when the ball comes his way, he’s got to make sure he’s ready to make those plays.”
A Sum That Is Better Than The Components
Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
They aren’t the name-brand threats of years passed by. Past Mike Evans there is no such thing as a Chris Godwin. There isn’t a Rob Gronkowski. There isn’t a Antonio Brown. However this isn’t the 2020 Bucs that needed to depend on elite expertise on the move catcher place to win on offense.
The run sport takes an enormous load off of this group’s shoulders. The backs as move catchers takes one other load off. And for the load they should bear, Cade Otton, Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard are loads ok to shoulder what they should. Now we have overtly requested, “Who will step up?” previously.
However right here’s the factor.
They already should the diploma they’ve wanted to. And there may be nonetheless room for this group to develop. And that’s thrilling.
