2024 NFL Third And Lengthy – Who’s Finest, Who’s Worst?

The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) have been humbled by the 12-2 Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15, plain and easy. The offensive efforts have been simply that, pun supposed. Unable to own the ball, and have been behind the chains far too usually within the 27-13 loss.

In the present day, I needed to have a look at these undesirable third and lengthy conditions (>= seven yards to go), add context with league-wide comparisons by sport and on the season.

First, let’s have a look at a weekly view by means of Week 15 together with makes an attempt (emblem dimension) and success charges (changing a primary down).

Plenty of precious data. For starters, Pittsburgh’s most up-to-date loss in opposition to the Eagles was clearly beneath the road, with 12.5-percent success going 1-for-8. These eight makes an attempt tied for third-most of Week 15 throughout the NFL, regardless of a traditionally low time of possession quantity. So, far too usually, additionally tying for essentially the most third and longs in a sport for Pittsburgh in 2024.

Eight makes an attempt has occurred in two different video games this season, in Weeks Eight and Ten. The distinction was greater success, with 50 and 25-percent success charges that have been above the 23.9-percent league common (skinny purple line), successful each of these video games on both facet of the bye week.

Whereas the purpose is to keep away from the state of affairs completely, we see that Week 15 was by far the worst high quality and amount on third and longs for the 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers offense. Limiting self-inflicted wounds would go a good distance.

For extra context, listed below are all of Pittsburgh’s third down conditions of Week 15: third and 22, third and 20, third and 18, third and 18, third and 10, third and 9, third and eight, third and seven, third and a pair of, third and 1.

So, 8-of-10 third downs the Steelers confronted on Sunday have been third and longs, together with five-straight three and out fails to begin the sport. The one third and lengthy conversion was a third and purpose on the nine-yard line, a uncommon spotlight for the offense on the lone landing from TE Pat Freiermuth. Nice catch like a basketball rebound over the DB. The 2 third and shorts have been each conversions by QB Russell Wilson together with his legs.

Total although, we get plenty of context to the ache that was the Steelers offense that felt prefer it was caught in quicksand. Trying on the dots on the visible, we will see that it isn’t unusual to lack success within the state of affairs.

The hope is that this was an outlier for Pittsburgh, and pattern positively the final three video games to shut the 12 months. When wanting on the season in its entirety, Pittsburgh’s offense has confirmed able to this optimistically.

The Steelers have an above common third and lengthy success charge in 9-of-14 video games in 2024 (64.3-percent). Six of those got here with Wilson at QB, an encouraging fact as Pittsburgh appears to be like to proper the Week 15 wrongs. Current success can also be encouraging, with comfortably above common success, and limiting the occasions they have been within the state of affairs in Weeks 12-14 in opposition to the AFC North.

Baltimore is the following problem, and sadly was the one different beneath common success (14.3-percent) with Wilson on the helm, of their first Week 11 matchup. 1-of-7 on third and longs, so related points to the ache we noticed final sport.

Listed below are the third down conditions from Week 11 to check, and see what their seeking to treatment in opposition to the Ravens third and 20, third and 20, third and 10, third and 10, third and eight, third and seven, third and seven, third and 5, third and 4, third and 4, third and 1, third and 1, third and 1, third and 1.

Whereas there have been a number of third and longs, Pittsburgh was in additional manageable conditions total. However, going 4-of-16 on all third downs (25-percent) was one other unlucky situation, together with a number of of the brief down and distance conditions.

Fortunately, a remaining third and 1 run conversion from RB Najee Harris allowed the Steelers to kneel out the nail-biting 18-16 win in typical AFC North style. Exhibiting third down enhancements is one in every of my greatest hopes for the Week 16 rematch.

Right here’s a quick have a look at the season, with the success numbers we’ve been taking a look at, together with anticipated factors added (EPA):

Pittsburgh: 83 makes an attempt (T-Twentieth), 26.5 success (Twelfth), 0.15 EPA (fifth).

We clearly see an encouraging flipside within the 2024 season, regardless of the demise of Week 11 and 15. Each sturdy defenses that deserve a ton of credit score. Pittsburgh’s offense will certainly be pissed on what occurred final sport, and can hopefully look significantly better throughout the board, together with limiting and discovering extra success on third and longs beginning with Baltimore. That might probably support a optimistic pattern to shut out the 12 months sturdy.

Now for the opposite facet of the ball, taking a look at defenses success charges and EPA this season (by means of Week 15):

The Pittsburgh Steelers protection can also be an above the imply unit on third and longs. Listed below are their numbers and ranks: 87 makes an attempt (T-fifth), 21.8 success (tenth), -0.19 EPA (Twelfth).

Forcing the opposing offense into the fifth-most third and lengthy conditions is a powerful start line, and limiting them on a high ten success charge stand out most. EPA can also be sturdy, encouragingly.

What has their high ten success charge in 2024 seemed like by week? Right here you go:

The Steelers protection has largely been good, as anticipated from the earlier view, above common in 8-of-14 video games this season (57.1-percent). However in 3-of-4 Pittsburgh losses this season, it’s been beneath the road defensive success, together with final week in opposition to Philadelphia.

In that contest, the Steelers protection allowed a 33.3-percent success, on a 2-for-6 conversion charge. That tied for third-most of the season, on the next quantity than Cincinnati in Week 13 (1-of-3). Pittsburgh’s worst success charges allowed got here a lot earlier within the season, with the Colts and Cowboys changing 50-percent of their third and longs. Indianapolis was extra regarding of the 2 losses, permitting greater 4-of-8 numbers.

There have been some excessive output video games as nicely, with the extra third and lengthy makes an attempt clearly being perfect on protection. The Week Eight Giants sport was 11 third and longs defended, tied for sixth-most throughout your complete NFL in 2024, however allowed a 28.6-percent success charge. The second Cleveland matchup Week 14 was one other they received the opposition behind the chains in, with ten third and longs (T-Twelfth most), limiting them to 20-percent success.

The caveat are these offenses are removed from elite, a number of the worst in soccer in actual fact. Can solely face who’s in your schedule, however provides essential context to Pittsburgh’s good marks in totality this season.

Whereas the Steelers have 4 video games of 0.0-percent success charges allowed, this level can also be true for that stage of competitors: Falcons (hobbled QB Kirk Cousins), Chargers (QB Justin Herbert injured), and unhealthy Raiders and Cleveland offenses. Total, all of their different above the road success charges got here on “less than” offenses, with Washington the exception.

Footage communicate a thousand phrases, and context issues. These are issues {that a} group already within the playoffs wants to enhance in the event that they hope to make noise there. The subsequent three video games in opposition to robust opponents hopefully go nicely, and function costume rehearsals for simply that optimistically. Can’t wait to see what this appears to be like like to shut out the 2024 season.