Week 16 greatest prop bets for Giants-Falcons

Welcome to the New York Giants betting angle, Week 16 version! Comfortable Holidays (and first day of winter) to all. There’s some recent snow on the bottom in New York this morning. It’s soccer climate – good for a weekend chock filled with NFL and faculty playoff motion.

Every week, I’m supplying you with my three favourite wagers for that week’s New York Giants sport. My one rule: I received’t ever provide you with wagers which might be lower than -120. No slam-dunks right here!

One other week, one other Giants’ loss. When will this season finish? Large Blue has dropped 9 straight contests and if the season ended right now, New York (2-12) would have the primary decide within the 2025 NFL draft. It’s been a wierd season within the NFL, because the league is each top-heavy and bottom-heavy, with a really small center class. Coming into this week, 9 groups had been both 2-12, 3-11, or 4-10, whereas 11 groups had been 9-5 or higher.

Solely two NFL groups got here into Week 15 with a 7-7 file, and one in all them is the Atlanta Falcons, who the Giants go to on Sunday. The highest story for this sport is that quarterback Kirk Cousins is being changed by rookie Michael Penix, Jr., who the Falcons chosen with the eighth decide within the 2024 NFL Draft simply six weeks after the crew gave Cousins a four-year, $180 million contract with $100 million in assured cash. Assuming Atlanta can’t commerce him, Cousins probably can be lower earlier than his subsequent roster bonus ($10M) is due in March. Hey, it’s not my cash, however Cousins will find yourself incomes an obscene quantity for 14 principally forgettable video games.

The road for this sport opened at 10 (earlier than the QB change was introduced), however has moved to ATL -8.5. Given how poorly Cousins was enjoying, the course of that line change is a bit stunning, a minimum of to this observer. The sport complete is 43.5. Penix has nearly no NFL historical past to go on, and that makes this sport difficult from a handicapping perspective.

I went 2-1 final week, which makes 4 straight profitable weeks for me. For the third straight week, my one miss was dropping an “over” on a dashing prop. So possibly I’ll keep away from these for per week or two. Nonetheless, my picks are 9-3 throughout these 4 video games. I’ll attempt to keep scorching, however I’ll say it upfront: This sport has me befuddled.

Let’s get to the picks. All traces and odds are from Fanduel and are as of Saturday at 9 p.m., December 21.

Nabers must be busy once more on Sunday

Photograph by Luke Hales/Getty Pictures

1. Sport complete UNDER 43.5 (-118). This complete appears excessive to me. The Giants are the lowest-scoring crew within the NFL, and so they’ve been trotting out a musical chairs of horrible back-up QBs. Their protection doesn’t produce turnovers, in order that they not often get quick fields. Scoring has been a serious chore. Solely 5 of their 14 video games have gone over the full, and that pattern has been sticky all yr. On the opposite aspect, Penix is making his first-ever NFL begin and I count on Atlanta to pound the ball (I believe you possibly can think about the “overs” for one or each of their backs) and to maintain issues pretty easy for him.

2. Malik Nabers OVER 68.5 receiving yards (-115). Rinse and repeat. I’ll preserve driving the “overs” for Nabers, who will get focused at one of many highest charges in your complete league, and has some NFL and crew rookie information and milestones in his sights. Nabers has battled by quite a lot of accidents and that’s in all probability miserable his props, however I’ll keep on him as he’s proving to be a gamer who retains giving his all regardless of all of the bumps, bruises, and dropping. The Falcons are useless final within the NFL in sacks and stress charge. That’s a giant a part of why they’re among the many worst cross defenses within the NFL. Drew Lock is nothing particular, however give him time to throw and Nabers time to get open and he ought to have loads of straightforward completions to the rookie star.

3. Graham Gano OVER 5.5 kicker factors (-120). A kicker prop? Positive, why not. It’s dangerous taking the over on something that requires the Giants to attain factors, however it is a low kicker complete and I believe they’ll be on this sport for a minimum of three quarters. I additionally consider they’ll be capable of transfer the ball on an Atlanta protection that defends the run fairly properly, however will get shredded by the air. Stepping into the top zone is one other story. It’s a dome, so I like Gano’s probabilities to make no matter subject aim makes an attempt he will get, and I believe he’ll get a minimum of two.

These are the picks for Week 16. Good luck together with your wagers!