Steelers Vs. Chiefs Week 17 Pregame Stats Outlook

The Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) have misplaced two tough video games and proceed their powerful stretch Christmas Day towards the NFL’s finest 14-1 Kansas Metropolis Chiefs.

Let’s dive into the matchup.

QUARTERBACKS – Chiefs Patrick Mahomes is a scary expertise, dealing with the Pittsburgh Steelers protection that has regressed towards playoff caliber groups. Doesn’t have the stat dominance he has in previous seasons, however has an awesome supporting solid that he level guards effectively.

This consists of issues they’re nice at, rating first in third down conversion price, and success price (fourth). Creating detrimental performs, capitalizing with splash play turnovers, and situational stops shall be key for a regressing Steelers protection towards the NFL’s finest file.

Mahomes has 543 makes an attempt (second), 3,608 go yards (seventh), 66.9 completion price (14th), 23 touchdowns (eighth), 11 interceptions (T-Thirty third), and 91.2 go score (Nineteenth) out of qualifiers (43 QBs, min. 120 makes an attempt).

KC is also beneath common with a 5.8 ANY/A (Nineteenth). Adjusted Internet Yards Per Passing Try is a predictive stat traditionally nice at predicting Tremendous Bowl winners, emphasizing the group efforts round him.

Talking of which, let’s take a look at accomplished and meant air yards:

This visible illustrates Mahomes facilitating to his playmakers shortly. His 3.9 accomplished air yards and 6.3 meant air yards every rank forty first out of 43 gamers, and continues to be prime ten in go yards and touchdowns. Thank goodness Pittsburgh’s protection is getting more healthy as a result of they’ve a stacked deck to account for.

Extra methodical than explosive air yardage, together with the Steelers. For comparability, Russell Wilson has 6.3 accomplished air yards (tenth) and seven.9 meant air yards (seventeenth), with the previous 2.4 yards greater than Mahomes. Extra stunning is Justin Fields’ bigger numbers, in what felt like a really conservative opening six weeks, in comparison with Wilson’s deep ball status.

So, we see the fast/quick sport is ever obvious and deadly for the Chiefs. You’d assume a fast launch would match such low air yards, however Mahomes nonetheless creates magic with play extension. Often to throw, but additionally can use his legs if advantageous.

TIGHT ENDS – Talking of which, Travis Kelce is his safety blanket. They’ve a improbable chemistry, en path to 122 targets, second-most on the place. The narrative of a lower than season is extra in yardage (739, fifth), 73.0 catch price (Twentieth), and solely two touchdowns (seventeenth) out of 34 qualifiers (min. 38 targets) after dominating many stats in prior seasons.

Compared, listed here are Steeler Pat Freiermuth’s numbers: 59 targets (T-Nineteenth), 510 yards (14th), 84.7 catch price (second), and 6 touchdowns (T-fourth). Positive fingers has been a gradual theme. The latter is an encouraging growth, with three TDs within the final 4 video games, however none in final week’s loss. Hopefully will get again on the board Week 17.

Attention-grabbing issues are revealed when meant air yards and yards after catch:

Though Mahomes has a low meant air yards quantity, the place is focused at a mean distance in comparison with the remainder of the league. Additionally stunning is Kelce’s low 3.5 yards after catch this yr, third least of 34 qualifiers.

Freiermuth is beneath common in each, with 4.7 YAC being nearer to the imply, and 5.9 meant air yards every rank Twenty third. Hopefully he has an awesome sport, however their second stage on protection shall be a troublesome problem.

Contemplating Pittsburgh’s latest missed deal with points, it might be large to carry him and their eligibles to low yards after catch. Kelce has a 6.7 meant air yards quantity (sixteenth), and their TE2 Noah Grey has been focused equally, on the following rank (seventeenth). He has one of the best 5.5 on the place within the matchup, simply above the imply and ranks 18th.

Pittsburgh’s protection allowed TEs to go wild final sport, however reinforcements hopefully maintain that from changing into the storyline. Specifically S DeShon Elliott, which permits Minkah Fitzpatrick to return to his finest place on the again finish.

WIDE RECEIVERS – Maybe the most important storyline is Steeler George Pickens set to return following a three-game absence (hamstring). Very opportune time towards the two-time defending champs.

He’ll hopefully ball out, with Wilson seemingly chomping on the bit to have his prime weapon again. Pickens has 90 targets (T-Thirty fourth), out of 95 qualifiers (min. 38). 61.1 catch price (sixtieth), 850 yards (twenty fourth), and three TDs (T-53rd).

Calvin Austin stepped up most admirably in his absence. Hopefully the sudden leap in play continues as a formidable complimentary piece transferring ahead. He now has 52 targets (73rd), 61.5 catch price (56th), 517 yards (58th), and 4 TDs (T-Forty second).

Chiefs Xavier Worthy has had a powerful rookie yr, main their place with 89 targets, thirty sixth A part of this is because of accidents, however the speedster presents a giant problem for Pittsburgh. He has a 57.3 catch price (seventy fifth), 559 yards (fiftieth), and 5 TDs (T-Thirty first).

Additionally they acquired Deandre Hopkins previous to Week 8, and has been a key a part of their profitable performs and prime rank in third down conversions. On the season, 76 targets (forty sixth), 71.1 catch price (Nineteenth), 611 yards (forty sixth), and 5 TDs as nicely (T-Thirty first). Paired with Kelce, beautifully dependable targets.

Whereas Pittsburgh is way more healthy general, fortunately, CB Joey Porter Jr. has been dominated out (knee) suffered final sport and this fast turnaround. The place should step as much as these powerful challenges, not like latest weeks.

Lets take a look at separation (distance between receiver and nearest defender at catch/incompletion) and yards after catch:

These stats spotlight the place Worthy has been profitable. He’s nicely above common in every, with 3.6 in separation (seventh) and 6.8 yards after catch (tenth). That is extraordinarily regarding contemplating latest Steelers video games, they usually should respect and be prepared for the children prime ten skillset. Compared, Hopkins is below-average in every; 2.7 separation (sixty fourth) and a couple of.6 YAC (84th).

Pickens 2.3 separation is least of the matchup (91st), which is fourth-least. Illustrates the respect and plastering from defenses, and makes his different stats extra spectacular. We all know from his highlights he’s among the best contested catch artists in soccer, and in addition makes his extra common 4.5 YAC (Fortieth) admirable.

Austin 2.8 separation (57th) is beneath common, however 5.0 YAC continues to be above the imply (Thirty first). It was even higher earlier in 2024, and hopefully positively developments with much less consideration upon Pickens return.

RUNNING BACKS – A well-known identify in Kareem Hunt (former Brown) leads them with 191 carries (18th), 708 yards (twenty eighth), 3.7 common (forty first), and 6 touchdowns (T-Twentieth) amongst qualifiers (49 RBs, min. 75 carries). Isaiah Pacheco’s workload is rising after harm, and has began 5-of-6 video games he’s appeared in, with 3.8 yards per try (T-Fortieth).

As a group, they common 4.0 per carry, proper on the profitable play mark per play. Mahomes has a 5.2 common on 57 makes an attempt, WR Xavier Worthy 5.2 on 18, and RB Samaje Perine 17 carries for 4.8, so a group effort to their success. With Pittsburgh coming off their worst run protection efficiency of 2024, stopping it towards the Chiefs is excessive precedence.

Right here’s Pittsburgh’s stats for comparability:

Najee Harris – 238 makes an attempt (T-seventh), 933 yards (14th), 3.9 common (T-Thirty fifth), 5 TDs (T-Twenty third).

Jaylen Warren – 103 makes an attempt (thirty seventh), 419 yards (thirty eighth), 4.1 common (T-Thirty first), one TD (T-last).

Stats don’t inform the total story, notably to Kansas Metropolis’s success, however a glimmer of hope is revealed in yards after contact and elusive score (influence of dashing unbiased of blocking):

Clear benefit for Pittsburgh, however rather more success in these phrases earlier in 2024. The Steelers must get again to that towards such a powerful group, controlling time of possession and preserving their offense on the sidelines. KC’s protection is nice towards the run although, permitting the third least yardage of 2024. A key battle.

Harris’ higher season mark is an above common 79.8 elusive score, rating 14th within the NFL. He’s landed above 100 on 4 events this season, Weeks 6-8, and a 118.5 quantity final week. Bests in the identical video games with three plus yards after contact in every, 3.56 final sport, in comparison with his beneath common 2.89 quantity in 2024 (Thirty first).

Contemplating the Chiefs robust protection, these numbers will seemingly must be robust in hopes of victory. Warren is barely above the imply in every, with 3.09 yards after contact (Twenty third) and 72.6 elusive score (18th). Each Pittsburgh backs are prime 20 within the latter, creating greater than what’s there. Encouraging, but additionally hope the o-line performs higher. Powerful activity in competitors, third sport in 11 days, and so late within the yr.

Flipping sides, we see Kansas Metropolis rushers have been in the direction of the underside of the NFL in these phrases. Of 49 RBs, Pacheco has absolutely the worst 24.3 elusive score, and Hunt at fourth least (35.2). Yards after contact has additionally lacked: Hunt 2.51 (forty fourth), Pacheco 2.4 (second-least). When they’re profitable, it has been extra depending on blocking.

OFFENSIVE LINES – Clearly key to any matchup.

Listed below are PFF blocking grades for the starters (min. 500 snaps) via Week 16:

Clear edge to KC general, together with the one three anticipated starters within the matchup above the imply in each. Key to their success in dashing, and 4 of their snaps leaders above the imply as go blockers. There are accidents and uncertainty at deal with, which can hopefully bode nicely for Pittsburgh’s edge rushers.

Chiefs Week 16 beginning OL:

LT Joe Thuney (13 begins at LG): 75.0 RBLK (sixteenth/92), 82.5 PBLK (1st)

LG Mike Caliendo (172 snaps): 46.9 RBLK (seventy fifth/79), 61.3 PBLK (53rd)

C Creed Humphrey: 91.5 RBLK (2nd/forty seventh), 90.1 PBLK (1st)

RG Trey Smith: 80.2 RBLK (tenth/79), 68.9 PBLK (twenty sixth)

RT Jawan Taylor (questionable-knee): 58.0 RBLK (63rd/92), 73.1 PBLK (thirty sixth)

I’m certain many NFL draft followers “love” seeing Humphrey as among the best graded linemen in soccer. Thuney can also be a prime ranked PBLK alongside him, however has solely began twice at left deal with the final two video games, with worse grades. EDGE Alex Highsmith will hopefully take benefit. Smith can also be prime ten in RBLK, so their inside gives their rushers good alternatives.

However Caliendo has barely performed, and been a weak hyperlink compared together with Taylor. The latter is the important thing RT place to observe, drawing a key matchup towards star EDGE T.J. Watt. Hopefully he appears to be like spryer, on a brief week following an ankle harm he’s performed via a pair sport in the past. Additionally want Cam Heyward and firm that’s returning Larry Ogunjobi to win matchups, and chess match on their weak hyperlink if Caliendo performs once more.

Pittsburgh OL:

LT Dan Moore: 64.7 RBLK (forty sixth/92), 69.2 PBLK (forty fifth)

LG Isaac Seumalo: 70.2 RBLK (twenty second/79), 61.6 PBLK (51st)

C Zach Frazier: 78.1 RBLK (Sixth/forty seventh), 63.5 PBLK (twenty fifth)

RG Mason McCormick: 52.4 RBLK (68th/79), 60.1 PBLK (59th)

RT Broderick Jones: 61.8 RBLK (fifty fifth/92), 52.1 PBLK (seventy fifth)

Frazier nonetheless is among the prime graded in RBLK as a rookie, however a transparent PBLK edge to Humphrey. The one different first rate rank is Seumalo’s RBLK. Whereas the grades are subjective, it’s inarguable the unit has regressed as of late. On paper, the circumstances don’t bode nicely, however they little question maintain blame for the groups two-game shedding streak. Right here’s to hoping this, and listening to how the Chiefs are a greater group have them able to show doubters incorrect.

DEFENSE – Pittsburgh faces one other powerful unit as soon as once more, deserving a ton of credit for his or her league-leading finest file.

One in every of their finest in DL Chris Jones is questionable (calf). Practiced limitedly in sights of Christmas Day, and his availability and effectiveness is clearly large if he performs. Chamarri Conner is out of their secondary, however they’re nonetheless formidable there and throughout your complete unit.

Pittsburgh is way more healthy, fortunately, and hopefully higher outcomes comply with. Can’t assume that, as I’ve mentioned their regressions, that features 27 factors or extra allowed within the final 4 video games. Step up males, or one other lengthy day is in retailer.

Let’s take a look at some stats:

Cross Yards: Kansas Metropolis (seventeenth). Pittsburgh (Twentieth).

Rush Yards: Chiefs (third). Steelers (Eighth).

Rush yards stand out, with KC a stout prime three unit. Pittsburgh continues to be prime ten, however plummeted from a fourth rank after getting demolished by Raven Derrick Henry. The Chiefs result’s partially to being up in some video games, however not the entire story since many video games have been shut as nicely. Pittsburgh has historical past in these sorts of video games, and hopefully rekindle that towards one other nice group at closing them out.

Situational success (or lack thereof) is clearly key. Listed below are season ranks:

Third down: PIT (fifth). KC (Twentieth).

Fourth down: Chiefs (T-Sixth). Steelers (twenty eighth).

Crimson zone: Kansas Metropolis (T-Eighth). Pittsburgh (T-Thirteenth).

KC is a top-ten unit in fourth down and purple zone, not what you wish to see with Pittsburgh struggling there on offense. Extra advantageous may very well be on third downs, the place the Chiefs protection has been weaker. Any given Sunday although, however that may be large within the hope for Pittsburgh’s offense to maintain drives, and maintain the ball away from Mahomes and firm.

The Steelers protection has a fifth rank in third down protection, dealing with Kansas Metropolis’s primary offense. One of many largest keys to the sport, fingers crossed. Crimson zone has regressed for Pittsburgh as of late, however one of many Chiefs stunning points on offense. Should get this proper in sights of the playoffs, and higher laser focus regardless of that stat.

Fourth down conversions allowed have been abysmal for the Steelers protection, and if they can restrict KC on third down, should get out of the underside 5 on this heartbreaking stat to get off the sector. They’d positively welcome that after the final two video games.

To shut, right here’s a visible of defenses go and run EPA (measures general scoring influence):

Week 16 Cross Protection EPA: Pittsburgh (tenth). Kansas Metropolis (seventeenth).

Week 16 Run Protection EPA: Chiefs (Eighth). Steelers (sixteenth).

Kansas Metropolis is prime ten in run protection once more. Jones’ availability is clearly an enormous issue, however Pittsburgh actually must give attention to their presumed run first identification in hopes of victory. Their go protection has been extra prone compared, and actually hope Pickens return, together with Wilson eliminating dire errors makes for an impactful passing day.

Painful to see Pittsburgh’s downward spiral in run protection, in comparison with being as excessive as second earlier in 2024. Cross protection is prime ten, however has felt worse as I highlighted within the ANY/A article I linked earlier. Returning to their defensive identification shall be large or dire to the end result of Week 17 Christmas Day.

Right here’s to hoping for a win, a pleasant reward for all of Steelers Nation.

Opponent-Scouting-Studies: Offense Protection

Harm-Studies: Steelers Chiefs