Lions vs. 49ers preview, rating prediction: On Paper

The Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers face off Monday evening in a sport that actually means extra to Detroit. Not solely will they be searching for revenge from the NFC Championship Recreation final 12 months (regardless of their public insistence they’re wanting ahead), however a win may propel them to the No. 1 seed general within the NFC. In the meantime, the 49ers have already been eradicated from playoff rivalry, in order that they’ll solely have pleasure on the road on Monday evening.

However our On Paper preview sequence doesn’t keep in mind intangibles like that. We have a look at the pure statistical matchup, as I imagine that’s a very powerful strategy to break down matchups every week. So whereas Detroit could have the motivational edge, have they got the statistical and expertise edge? Let’s have a look in our Week 17 On Paper preview.

Lions go offense (sixth in DVOA) vs. 49ers go protection (fifth)

The Lions’ go offense isn’t simply dominant, it’s additionally trending in the correct path. Again in Week 11 in opposition to the Jaguars, Detroit’s passing assault ranked simply twelfth in DVOA. Now, they’re sixth and rank even greater on the subject of general effectivity metrics. For the season, Detroit’s passing assault ranks:

Second in yards per try (8.6)
Second in passer score (113.2)
Third in dropback EPA (0.265)
First in dropback success price (52.9%)

If we take simply the final six weeks, they’re even higher:

Second in yards per try (8.5)
First in passer score (120.0)
Second in dropback EPA (0.384)
First in dropback success price (56.6%)

Each stat has seen a major bump up to now two months exterior of yards per try, which has remained excessive (8.6 to eight.5).

Detroit will head to San Francisco with their total beginning offensive line wholesome. Whereas that unit hasn’t lived as much as their lofty expectations, they’ve been higher in go safety recently. For the season, they rank fifteenth in PFF go blocking grade and tenth in ESPN’s go block win price.

The 49ers go protection is their strongest unit. Although the chart suggests they’re trending within the improper path in passer score allowed, have a look at the yardage totals. They’ve solely allowed 200 internet passing yards as soon as within the final two months.

For the season, they rank:

Third in yards per try (6.6)
Seventh in passer score (86.1)
eleventh in dropback EPA (0.039)
Thirteenth in dropback success price (45.8%)

There may be some legitimacy to their latest struggles, nonetheless. Within the final six video games—by which they’ve gone 1-5—right here’s the place these numbers stack:

6.2 yards per try
Twenty fourth in passer score (98.9)
18th in dropback EPA (0.109)
twentieth in dropback success price (48.4%)

They’re nonetheless very stingy on the yardage they’re giving up, however groups are basically studying to provide what the 49ers are giving them, and that’s making opposing offenses very environment friendly.

Nonetheless, the 49ers have among the best secondaries in soccer. They’ve PFF’s second-highest protection grade in soccer (89.7), and three cornerbacks have at the very least seven go breakups (Deommodore Lenoir, Renardo Inexperienced, Charvarius Ward).

The most important risk from the 49ers protection continues to be go rusher Nick Bosa. Whereas Leonard Floyd really leads the staff in sacks (8.5), Bosa’s 60 pressures (per PFF) dwarf Leonard’s 44, regardless of taking part in three fewer video games. That stated, for those who can handle Bosa, San Francisco doesn’t have many extra go rushers that may damage you. The 49ers rank simply 18th in general go rush grade (67.9) and 14th in go rush win price, regardless of Bosa individually rating top-10 in each metrics.

Participant to observe: Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. Deommodore Lenoir. It’s one other premier matchup within the slot for St. Brown. Lenoir performs exterior nook, however when the 49ers play nickel—which they do typically—he slides into the slot. Lenoir’s 74.2 PFF protection grade is 14th amongst all cornerbacks, whereas St. Brown’s 86.9 general PFF grade is fifth amongst all receivers.

Benefit: Lions +1. Don’t count on one other 300+ yards efficiency from Goff. The 49ers have solely allowed 300 internet passing yards a single time this season. Nevertheless, Goff is a really affected person quarterback and has no downside taking what the protection provides him. That’s the right gameplan this week in opposition to a 49ers protection that retains every thing in entrance of them. So so long as Detroit avoids turnovers, they need to have the ability to dink and dunk their approach down the sector. I simply don’t see an explosive efficiency this week.

Lions run offense (third) vs. 49ers run protection (Twenty fourth)

The Lions speeding assault has been slowed a bit as of late, however final week was a step in the correct path—albeit in opposition to a reasonably poor Bears run protection. For the season, this nonetheless stays among the best speeding assaults in soccer. They rank tenth in yards per carry (4.6), however fourth in rush EPA (0.021), third in success price (45.2%), first in adjusted line yards (5.12), seventh in PFF rush grade (87.6), and third in run blocking grade (77.7).

Within the final six video games, although, they’re at 4.4 yards per carry (fifteenth), rank seventh in rush EPA (0.003), however nonetheless rank second in success price (47.5%).

In different phrases, that is nonetheless a reasonably darn environment friendly speeding assault, even when they’re not presently at their greatest. They’ll be with out David Montgomery once more this week, however a more healthy Graham Glasgow returns to the lineup at left guard.

Persevering with a theme right here, the 49ers run protection was positive within the first half of the season, however they’ve been an absolute catastrophe within the final six video games. 4 of their final 5 opponents have rushed for at the very least 140 yards, and whereas the yards per carry have been saved low, the general effectivity numbers are troubling for San Francisco. Listed below are their early season/late season splits:

Weeks 1-10:

4.3 yards per carry allowed (ninth)
-0.046 rush EPA (twenty third)
42.6% rush success price allowed (twenty second)

Weeks 11-16

4.5 yards per carry allowed (nineteenth)
0.009 rush EPA (twenty seventh)
44.9% rush success price allowed (twenty sixth)

Bear in mind, the Lions had been in a position to rush for 182 yards and three touchdowns in opposition to the 49ers final 12 months (albeit with Montgomery). It’s clear San Francisco’s run protection points haven’t been mounted since.

Participant to observe: Fred Warner. Warner stays among the best linebackers in soccer. His 31 run stops rank t-ninth amongst all NFL linebackers, and he has 4 compelled fumbles—t-third amongst all defensive positions.

Benefit: Lions +2.5. This can be a fairly clear benefit within the Lions’ favor. The one factor that basically provides me any pause is the shortage of David Montgomery and a few latest struggles from the Lions offensive line. Nonetheless, Detroit should not have any downside getting at the very least 100 yards this week.

49ers go offense (eighth) vs. Lions go protection (4th)

Noticing a sample with the 49ers but?

What began as a promising follow-up to Brock Purdy’s 2023 MVP run has became a nightmare end for the previous Mr. Irrelevant. Outdoors of a robust efficiency in opposition to a damaged Bears staff and final week’s playing-from-behind sport, Purdy’s final six weeks have been horrible. Over that stretch, Purdy ranks:

twenty first in passer score (89.3)
sixteenth in yards per try (7.4)
t-Twenty fourth in touchdowns (5)
Twenty fourth in dropback EPA (-0.020)
twenty fifth in dropback success price (42.0%)

An enormous a part of the difficulty is accidents. The offensive line is presently in shambles. Star left deal with Trent Williams is on IR, and now his backup is, too. They may realistically be on LT4 this week. The 49ers may even be lacking their beginning left guard.

Consequently, the 49ers have allowed the ninth-highest stress price this season (per NFL Professional). And whereas Purdy has the escapability to create performs exterior the pocket, his effectivity has been horrible when pressured. His -51.6 EPA when pressured ranks sixteenth within the NFL and his 73.8 passer score in such conditions ranks 18th.

Nonetheless, the 49ers have lots of harmful weapons within the passing sport who can check Detroit’s secondary. Jauan Jennings (eleventh in PFF grade), George Kittle (first), and Deebo Samuel (forty second) are all harmful.

When you’re apprehensive that accidents have caught as much as the Lions, chances are you’ll need to skip this part. The final 4 weeks have been a wrestle for the Lions go protection, and the issues are multifaceted. Right here’s a have a look at the place the Lions rank during the last 4 weeks:

thirtieth in dropback EPA (0.252)
twentieth in dropback success price (47.9%)
t-last in passer score allowed (109.2)
t-Thirteenth in sacks (eight)

The go rush has taken a transparent hit, the protection hasn’t been good, and it’s actually regarding transferring ahead.

Now, Detroit is beginning to get more healthy on protection, and perhaps extra importantly, they’re gaining reps within the new regular with out Alim McNeill, Carlton Davis, and loads of others. Ifeatu Melifonwu seems to be to be an enormous a part of the protection going ahead, however he’s nonetheless getting his ft moist. Jalen Reeves-Maybin returns this week and will give Detroit’s second stage a protection enhance. However… it’s all nonetheless coming collectively.

Participant to observe: George Kittle. For the season, the Lions even have the second-best go protection in opposition to tight ends by DVOA. However the linebacker accidents have piled up, and that would imply an enormous week for Kittle. Detroit may counter with Melifonwu or Brian Department as an alternative of a linebacker, however Kittle has 100 yards in two of his final three contests.

Benefit: Draw. I can’t in good religion be optimistic concerning the Lions go protection proper now. It hasn’t been good, and the 49ers have sufficient weapons to provide them a handful. On the similar time, San Francisco can also be a multitude with accidents proper now, and that patchwork offensive line may have its arms full in opposition to Detroit’s excessive blitz price. This one may go both approach.

49ers run offense (Thirteenth) vs. Lions run protection (tenth)

The 49ers total id surrounds their run sport, so it’s not shocking that their latest struggles have resulted in losses in 5 of their final six video games. They’ve been held under 80 speeding yards in 4 of their final seven video games, and held under 4.0 yards per carry in 4 of these video games, as properly.

During the last seven video games, the 49ers rank:

nineteenth in rush PEA (-0.099)
Twenty fourth in rush success price (38.2%)
twentieth in yards per carry (4.2)

The rationale for this large drop off? Once more, accidents. Not solely has the offensive line been a multitude, however their backfield has been decimated. Christian McCaffrey has missed 11 video games, Elijah Mitchell missed your entire season, Jordan Mason has missed three video games, and all three are on injured reserve. Final week, rookie Isaac Guerendo was out with an damage, and his standing for this week is unclear.

Regardless, don’t be shocked if San Francisco has to depend on Samuel within the backfield. Up to now three weeks, he’s had a complete of 12 carries for 51 yards.

There’s been lots of up and down with the Lions’ run protection this 12 months—probably resulting from accidents—however they noticed a pleasant rebound final week regardless of being with out McNeill.

For the season, they’ve solely allowed 5 groups to eclipse 100 speeding yards and 7 of 15 opponents have gone over the league common of 4.4 yards per carry.

When it comes to general effectivity, Detroit stays a robust run protection. They rank seventeenth in yards per carry allowed (4.4) however ninth in rush EPA (-0.132) and fourth in success price (36.3%).

Participant to observe: Dominick Puni. One silver lining within the 49ers’ season is their rookie class has been stable. Third-round choose Dominick Puni has been their beginning proper guard all season, and he presently ranks third amongst all NFL guards in run blocking grade (84.4). If San Francisco finds success, it could be on the correct facet of the offensive line, though proper deal with Colton McKivitz can also be coping with an damage proper now.

Benefit: Lions +1.5. Detroit nonetheless has rather a lot to show with their run protection given the accidents alongside the defensive entrance, however San Francisco’s state of affairs is way worse.

Final week’s prediction:

On Paper notched one other win final week, transferring the preview to 13-2 general and 10-5 in opposition to the unfold. I in all probability ought to’ve simply adopted the numbers (Lions +6 benefit) and picked an even bigger benefit than the rating I went with (34-27 Lions), however I do suppose the majority of the evaluation was spot on.

Within the remark part, we had one other excellent prediction. Bagels are for champions nailed the ultimate rating with their 34-17 prediction.

I’m on semi-vacation this week, so I don’t have photoshop to give you. However given your superior username, I’ll as an alternative provide a photograph of a bagel platter I’m consuming right now.

This week’s prediction

The Lions come out with a +5 benefit, which is comparatively robust. Extra importantly, I’ve them with the sting in three of 4 matchups. That leaves the 49ers with fewer outs to tug off the upset. The one path I see to victory is for Brock Purdy to face on his head the way in which he did within the second half of the NFC Championship Recreation (13-of-16 for 174 yards + 49 yards speeding within the remaining two quarters). However with their beat-up offensive line and general effectivity down this 12 months, I simply don’t see it. Lions 34, 49ers 21.