Bucs vs. Commanders: What To Watch For In Wild Card Spherical | Pewter Report

For individuals who went via the 2008-2019 playoff drought, the truth that the Bucs are set to play on Wild Card Weekend for the fifth straight yr – and the fourth straight yr at dwelling – has to really feel fairly particular. But, these days, simply making it to the playoffs isn’t sufficient for Tampa Bay. If the 10-7, No. 3 seed Bucs fail to beat the 12-5, No. 6 seed Commanders on Sunday evening, it’ll really feel like a disappointment.

In any case, this Tampa Bay staff was one quarter away from the NFC Championship Recreation final yr, and whereas the protection has taken a step again all through the 2024 season, the offense is likely one of the league’s easiest. So, there needs to be a way of excessive expectations for Todd Bowles and his staff after they host a Washington staff they beat at dwelling method again in Week 1. They need to be getting more healthy, they usually’ll like their possibilities of getting one other Wild Card win in entrance of the house followers after doing so final yr with a 32-9 victory over the Eagles.

The Commanders come into this recreation with a little bit of a special vibe, at the least so far as expectations go. Sure, they gained 12 video games for the primary time since 1991 and sure, they haven’t gained a playoff recreation since beating the Bucs within the NFC Wild Card Spherical again in January 2006. However this can be a staff that’s taking part in with home cash, for lack of a greater phrase. Washington continues to be constructing and is method forward of schedule in yr one beneath Dan Quinn and with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Nonetheless, this can be a good staff that’s loads able to successful on Sunday evening and making a run in these playoffs.

Let’s dive into what may determine this matchup, in addition to some key gamers to observe in Sunday evening’s recreation at Ray Jay:

What Would possibly Determine This Bucs-Commanders Matchup?

Bucs OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and Commanders QB Jayden Daniels – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR

On condition that the Bucs and Commanders have two of the very best offenses within the NFL, the last word decider on this recreation may very well be which staff’s protection is ready to step up and make key stops.

Neither of those two groups have a protection that’s all that good at taking the ball away, however that is the kind of matchup the place a takeaway or two may completely determine the sport. The Bucs pressured 18 turnovers this yr (11 fumbles, 7 interceptions) whereas the Commanders pressured 17 (10 fumbles, 7 interceptions).

However the important thing for Washington is that, whereas it doesn’t take the ball away very a lot, it additionally doesn’t give the ball away at a excessive clip. The Commanders turned the ball over 16 occasions, in order that they completed the season +1 when it comes to turnover margin. The identical can’t be mentioned for the Bucs. Tampa Bay turned the ball over 23 occasions, making for a -5 differential. Neither staff turned the ball over after they met in Week 1, so even one turnover in both route may make a major distinction on Sunday evening.

It’ll be fascinating to see how Todd Bowles and Dan Quinn go about their recreation plans, as these two defenses have reverse strengths and weaknesses. Tampa Bay is nice towards the run and disastrous towards the cross, particularly over the center of the sphere. How can Bowles cowl these deficiencies? How a lot will he blitz Jayden Daniels and hope these blitzes get dwelling earlier than the rookie quarterback exposes the weaknesses in protection? On the opposite facet, Quinn’s protection is a top-five unit towards the cross and a bottom-three protection towards the run. Will he promote out to attempt to cease Bucky Irving and Rachaad White susceptible to giving Baker Mayfield some simple throws to work with off play-action?

In fact, as a lot as this may very well be determined by the defenses, it’s the high-scoring offenses that obtained each of those groups thus far. Mayfield and the Bucs are the fourth-highest-scoring staff with 29.5 factors per recreation, whereas Daniels and the Commanders are proper behind them in fifth at 28.5 factors per recreation. Which facet will blink first (or probably the most) on Sunday evening?

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Picture by: USA Immediately

Any issues that Tampa Bay runs into on offense are typically its personal doing. Whether or not it’s turnovers, penalties or poor execution, the very best protection towards the Bucs offense is usually the Bucs offense itself. Nevertheless, when Liam Coen‘s offense is clicking, there’s not a lot it may well’t do.

Mayfield has seen quite a lot of viable targets emerge outdoors of Mike Evans, with rookie Jalen McMillan and tight ends Cade Otton, Payne Durham and Devin Culp (one other rookie) all coming alongside as nice complementary targets in Chris Godwin‘s absence. There will be a lot of focus on the matchup between Evans and longtime nemesis Marshon Lattimore, but it’s not as if the Bucs’ passing recreation is a one-man present.

The run recreation can also be one of many Bucs’ largest strengths. Irving is a 1,000-yard rusher, White has quietly had an excellent season and Sean Tucker appears to excel at any time when he’s referred to as upon. To not point out, the Buccaneer offensive line has been MAULING within the run recreation this yr and particularly down the stretch. That group may find yourself being the distinction in Sunday’s recreation.

On the Washington offense, it’s the Daniels Present. The No. 2 total pick of LSU has utterly reworked this Commanders staff and has been executing Kliff Kingsbury‘s offense exceptionally nicely all yr lengthy. He threw for 3,568 yards and 25 touchdowns this season whereas dashing for 891 yards and one other six scores.

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels – Picture by: USA Immediately

Regardless of him being a rookie, this recreation might be on his shoulders from a Washington standpoint. Given his Heisman Trophy-winning observe file and Rookie of the 12 months-worthy 2024 season, it could be silly to anticipate the intense lights of the NFL playoffs to shake him. If something, he’ll embrace this stage.

Nearly as good as Daniels is, what is going to determine this recreation for the Commanders offense is what the fellows round him are capable of do. Terry McLaurin is a 1,000-yard receiver and hauled in 13 touchdowns this yr. However the Bucs bottled him up again in Week 1. Can he bounce again this time and be the No. 1 goal Daniels wants him to be? If not, can another person step up?

Veteran tight finish Zach Ertz can be the likeliest candidate, as he’s Washington’s second-leading receiver and would seem to have a positive matchup towards a Tampa Bay protection that struggles with tight ends, particularly over the center of the sphere. However can anybody else step up and have an enormous recreation within the passing assault? Can his offensive line defend him? And can Washington have the ability to get something from its run recreation towards the Bucs’ robust rush protection?

One different issue? The kicking video games of those two groups. The Bucs have the most effective within the league in Chase McLaughlin, whereas the Commanders went via 4 kickers this yr however now have a great one in Austin Seibert. Each kickers have made greater than 90% of their kicks this yr, however one distinction that might show important? McLaughlin is 8-of-10 from 50+ yards this yr, whereas Seibert is 2-of-5. These three misses from 50+ for the Washington kicker are his solely misses of the season (27-of-30 total).

Key Gamers To Watch

Baker Mayfield needs to be the main target right here for the Bucs offense. He had some ups and downs in his first yr with Tampa Bay, however his play within the postseason was monumental. He threw for 686 yards and 6 touchdowns to 2 interceptions through the staff’s two-game playoff run final yr, and he’s been even higher in Liam Coen‘s offense this yr.

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Picture by: USA Immediately

If he places up one other three- or four-touchdown recreation like he has accomplished so usually this yr, the Bucs will love their possibilities to win this recreation. Having an efficient run recreation and weapons outdoors of Mike Evans (in addition to having Evans himself, in fact) is big for No. 6, and he’ll look to get issues began early on Sunday. When he’s capable of lead an early scoring drive, it normally bodes nicely for Tampa Bay.

On the defensive facet of the ball for the house staff, Zyon McCollum may show to be a significant factor on this recreation. He performed exceptionally nicely in Week 1 towards Washington, kickstarting what was an exceptional first half of the season for him. However his play dipped because the season went on. Can he bounce again and assist the Buccaneer protection lock down the likes of Terry McLaurin?

How nicely McCollum can fare in protection – in addition to if he can provide you with his first interception since Week 6 – could also be essential with regards to deciding how nicely Tampa Bay will have the ability to deal with Jayden Daniels and this spectacular Washington offense.

With a lot focus already on Daniels, McLaurin and Zach Ertz, how a couple of look into operating again Brian Robinson Jr.? The third-year again ran for 799 yards and eight touchdowns this yr and is the second-leading rusher on the staff behind the dual-threat Daniels. The Commanders are 7-1 this season when Robinson runs for greater than 60 yards in a recreation, and he’ll should be an element on Sunday evening.

Robinson wasn’t a lot of an element towards the Bucs again in Week 1, dashing for 40 yards and a landing on 12 carries (3.3 avg.). However he did contribute within the passing recreation, catching three passes for a season-high 49 receiving yards. With how nicely Tampa Bay defends towards the run, perhaps offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury will look to get Robinson concerned within the passing recreation towards the Buccaneer linebackers, who’ve struggled in protection all yr.

Commanders LB Bobby Wagner Picture by: USA Immediately

Bobby Wagner will flip 35 in June, however he can nonetheless go. He’s Washington’s highest-graded defender just about throughout the board, in accordance with Professional Soccer Focus. His 89.9 total grade, 90.8 run protection grade, 87.2 tackling grade and 91.0 cross rush grade are all team-leading, whereas his 68.1 protection grade ranks fourth on the Commander protection.

Wagner has only a 5.1% missed deal with fee and has 132 tackles (75 solo), 26 pressures, two sacks, 10 tackles for loss, a pressured fumble and two fumble recoveries this yr. He’s one of many leaders of a Washington protection that can have its work minimize out towards Tampa Bay. The nine-time Professional Bowler, six-time All-Professional and Tremendous Bowl XLVIII champion has performed 16 postseason video games over his illustrious profession, and he’s somebody who may make a huge effect on Sunday evening.