The Pittsburgh Steelers are heading to Baltimore to face their division rivals, who’re on a tear and taking part in nice soccer. Pittsburgh has spiraled, dropping their final 4 video games towards high quality opponents together with the Ravens in Week 16 (34-17), clearly searching for a greater final result of their third assembly.
Listed here are my stat outlooks for the prior two video games in hopes of righting the ship.
Week 11 Pregame Stats Outlook
Week 16 Pregame Stats Outlook
Let’s dive in.
QUARTERBACKS – QB Lamar Jackson is on the high of the massive challenges Baltimore presents. He set spectacular passing stat-lines this season, and right here’s that alongside along with his numbers within the Steelers matchups:
JACKSON
2024: 474 makes an attempt (sixteenth/40, min. 200 dropbacks), 4,172 cross yards (sixth), 41 TDs (T-second), 4 INTs (T-third).
Week 11: 33 makes an attempt (T-Eleventh), 207 yards (twenty first), 1 TD, 1 INT.
Week 16: 23 makes an attempt (Thirtieth), 207 yards (Twenty second), 3 TD, 1 INT.
Far fewer makes an attempt for a similar variety of yards and triple the touchdowns of their Week 16 victory, in comparison with the Steelers popping out on high in Week 11. One other huge distinction was completion share, with a lowly 48.5-percent mark the primary matchup, 65.2-percent in Week 16, and 66.7-percent on the 12 months (twelfth).
Right here is the typical accomplished and meant air yards, which stand out from Week 16:
Jackson achieved nice leads to these phrases, with a whopping 9.6 CAY that was better of Week 16, and a 9.8 IAY that was third-most. His air yard differential additionally was tops of the week, which means he was attacking down the sphere with total success.
Compared, Steelers QB Russell Wilson had a 6.7 CAY (fifth), and seven.3 IAY (14th). Not dangerous both, and right here was his stat-line: 33 makes an attempt (nineteenth), 217 yards (nineteenth), 2 TD, 1 INT. Has been sufficient previously, however not when Jackson posts his finest efficiency to this point on his division rival.
Wilson did even much less within the Week 11 win: 23 completions, 205 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT. So, Wilson can clearly play higher, however the Steelers actually need to step up and play complimentary soccer. That can doubtless be wanted towards Baltimore’s offense and a protection that’s taking part in higher, as my current articles illustrate:
2024 common season CATS
2024 common season explosive performs
2024 common season ANY/A
Additionally wished to incorporate my passing charts articles for the Ravens matchups:
Steelers passing charts Week 11
Steelers passing charts Week 16
An enormous a part of Baltimore’s identification is the run sport, on either side of the ball. Jackson led QBs with 915 speeding yards, and twentieth league-wide, higher than a number of operating backs. Right here’s his speeding towards Pittsburgh:
Week 11: 46 rush yards (fifth amongst QBs).
Week 16: 22 rush yards (twentieth).
Contemplating the Ravens had 220 crew speeding yards of their Week 16 win, in comparison with 124 in Week 11, we see the latter wasn’t on the hand of Jackson.
RUNNING BACKS – The massive distinction was Derrick Henry:
Week 11: 13 makes an attempt, 65 rush yards, 1 TD, 1 fumble turnover.
Week 16: 24 makes an attempt, 162 yards, 0 TD, 0 FUM.
Way more makes an attempt and greater than doubling his yardage final assembly. Impactful regardless of no rush touchdowns, however the huge story of Week 11 was a uncommon fumble turnover that Pittsburgh received on him early. Baltimore realized their lesson and can certainly lean on him once more.
The Steelers protection performing nearer to their first matchup will clearly be key on probably the greatest RBs within the league:
2024: Henry – 325 makes an attempt (second), 1,921 yards (second), 16 TDs (T-first).
Forcing missed tackles, and choosing up first downs was one other spotlight of Henry’s Week 16:
Henry led the week with most missed tackles compelled and tied for second in first downs. These have been huge causes that Baltimore gained, re-emphasizing my complementary soccer remark earlier and what Pittsburgh’s protection should do higher.
Steelers S DeShon Elliott is likely one of the finest tacklers for Pittsburgh and didn’t play within the final matchup. That’s big, and it have to be a stronger crew effort and one of many greatest keys in hopeful victory.
In addition they have a second-ranked speeding success charge, aiding their skill to increase drives, and performs nicely to their sturdy situational soccer on offense: third down (third) and NFL’s finest pink zone landing charge. Huge the explanation why they’re profitable, and a declining Steelers run protection (twenty ninth post-bye) should step as much as earlier in 2024, once they have been a high three unit.
Steelers RB Stats:
Harris – 2024: 263 makes an attempt (seventh), 1,043 yards (14th), 6 TDs (T-Twenty second). Week 11: 18 makes an attempt, 63 yards, 0 TDs. Week 16: 9 makes an attempt, 42 yards, 0 TDs.
Warren – 2024: 120 makes an attempt, 511 yards, 1 TD. Week 11: 9 makes an attempt, 41 yards, 0 TDs. Week 16: 12 makes an attempt, 48 yards, 0 TDs, 1 FUM.
We see that Harris was high 10 in carries and led alternatives in Week 11, with that flipping within the final assembly. Will probably be fascinating to see the splits on this sport, as Warren has gotten extra alternative in current weeks, however much less so final sport.
Baltimore restricted the run sport to 117 yards in Week 16 and 122 in Week 11. Final sport, Warren had six compelled missed tackles and 4 first downs regardless of the Ravens sturdy unit, however they rallied and corralled yardage total. He additionally had a fumble, fortunately retained. Wilson had one which was not, resulting in a Ravens TD drive.
Taking good care of the ball is paramount to Pittsburgh’s success. They’ve on the fitting aspect of the turnover margin for the 12 months, however being cleaner on offense would help a extra dominant unfold to hopefully capitalize on greater than Week 16.
OFFENSIVE LINES – Clearly key to any matchup.
Listed here are PFF blocking grades for Week 16:
Total, gamers fared finest in run blocking. Notably Baltimore, with some good cross blocking as Steeler G Isaac Seumalo led these grades. G Mason McCormick had the bottom particular person grade, an abysmal 16.6 PBLK.
Allowed 5 pressures, three hurries, and two sacks. He’s questionable after struggling a damaged hand. Who performs RG, doubtless Spencer Anderson if McCormick can’t go, and a powerful collective day from the unit can be nice to see after trending negatively to finish 2024.
Ravens OL:
LT Ronnie Stanley: 43.6 RBLK (sixty fifth/69), 52.4 PBLK (forty ninth)LG Patrick Mekari: 45.2 RBLK (fifty fifth/60), 74.0 PBLK (Twenty fourth)C Tyler Linderbaum: 74.9 RBLK (seventh/32), 57.0 PBLK (twentieth)RG Daniel Faalele: 66.3 RBLK (twenty sixth/60), 55.0 PBLK (forty fourth)RT Roger Rosengarten: 75.5 RBLK (twelfth/69), 68.9 PBLK (thirty third)
The left aspect of their line have been worse as run blockers, together with Steelers EDGE Alex Highsmith giving Stanley matches with a team-high 5 pressures, 4 hurries, and their lone sack. Emphasizes his huge sport, and hopefully the d-line present out extra, notably star T.J. Watt who has been restricted (to his requirements) in each common season matchups.
Rosengarten deserves credit score, together with the assistance he will get. Hoping Watt is saving the perfect for final, hungry to get his first playoff win. Linderbaum was stable run blocking on the inside, whereas the remainder of the grades have been common to beneath. Actually need extra playmaking, hopefully by way of sacks and turnovers.
Steelers anticipated OL:
LT Dan Moore: 59.1 RBLK (fiftieth/69), 65.6 PBLK (thirty seventh)LG Isaac Seumalo: 69.6 RBLK (twentieth/60), 81.9 PBLK (tenth)C Zach Frazier: 68.1 RBLK (Eleventh/32), 63.7 PBLK (Seventeenth)RG Mason McCormick (questionable-hand): 68.3 RBLK (Twenty second/60), 16.6 PBLK (57th)RT Broderick Jones: 51.9 RBLK (sixtieth/69), 65.1 PBLK (thirty eighth)
Frazier tops the run block grades, as he’s accomplished many of the 12 months. The guards graded nicely, however we see the principle run block woes got here from the tackles. They did have higher cross block grades, however Jones allowed two sacks, and Moore has allowed two sacks in every of the final two video games. Good inside PBLK marks, with the clear exception being McCormick, and if he goes seeing if that corrects or if the harm impacts his play.
TIGHT ENDS – Baltimore has two scary abilities in Mark Andrews and Isaiah Seemingly. They’d good seasons, and listed below are their stats:
Andrews – 2024: 69 targets (Seventeenth), 55 catches (14th), 673 yards (ninth), 11 TDs (1st). Week 11: 3 targets, 2 catches, 22 yards, 0 TDs. Week 16: 6 targets, 4 catches, 37 yards, 1 TD.
Seemingly – 2024: 56 targets (Twenty seventh), 42 catches (T-Twenty seventh), 477 yards (twenty third), 6 TDs (Eighth). Week 11: 5 targets, 4 catches, 75 yards, 0 TDs. Week 16: 3 targets, 3 catches, 29 yards, 1 TD.
Touchdowns actually stick out, with two TEs within the high 10, and Andrews main the NFL this season. Pittsburgh realized that painful lesson, coping with miscommunications and permitting a TD every to them. Broad open at that,and easily can’t occur once more. How the protection adjusts/executes is essential.
Steeler Pat Freiermuth: 2024: 74 targets (14th), 65 catches (T-Eighth), 653 yards (twelfth), 7 TDs (T-fourth). Week 11: 2 targets, 2 catches, 14 yards, 0 TDs. Week 16: 3 targets, 3 catches, 16 yards, 0 TD.
Sadly, stale compared within the earlier matchups. Actually hoping for high quality and amount from him, as groups have been zone-scheming the favourite moon ball away from Wilson.
This included the finale, when Freiermuth had 10 targets for 85 yards (season-highs), and a TD. He will certainly need to shun his final goal, a fourth down drop that ended Pittsburgh’s final defeat. It was largely quick targets too, and hoping for a powerful scheme to make the passing assault extra diverse than we’ve seen. Defenses have figured you out in your four-game dropping streak.
Couple issues that stood out from Week 16 have been slot charges and common depth of goal (ADOT):
First off, we see that every one three major TEs (min. three targets) had above common slot snaps final matchup. What additionally jumps ADOT, with Ravens focused extra downfield than Freiermuth. He aligned within the slot for 73.3 of passing snaps, most of Week 16, however had a low 5.0 ADOT (T-Fifteenth/27 qualifiers), largely out routes.
Andrews had the longest 12.5 ADOT of the week, as Seemingly was sixth-most at 7.7, and ranked second and ninth in slot charge. Whereas Pittsburgh restricted their whole yards final time, we see some extra of the challenges they current the Steelers protection, and friendlier utilization for manufacturing than how Freiermuth has been used.
WIDE RECEIVERS – Zay Flowers, their main receiver in 2024, is out for the competition which is clearly big. He dominated the Week 16 with 8 targets and 5 catches. Only one different receiver was focused, Rashod Bateman, who had three and only one catch.
They are going to little doubt want him to step up, together with the remainder of the room in Flowers absence, in addition to lean on their TEs much more.
Baltimore 2024 Targets:
Flowers: 112 (twenty first). Bateman: 67 (T-59th). Nelson Agholor (28), Tylan Wallace (12).
Actually illustrates this, and right here’s Pittsburgh’s whereas I’m at it.
Pittsburgh 2024 Targets:
George Pickens: 100 (T-Thirtieth), Calvin Austin 56 (T-73rd), Van Jefferson 40, Mike Williams 34. The latter noticed extra targets within the loaded Jets room the primary 9 weeks, with simply 13 since changing into a Steeler. Effectively underutilized, and hoping he will get extra concerned Saturday night time.
Listed here are stats for the Steelers WRs in Ravens matchups:
Pickens – Week 11: 12 targets, 8 catches, 89 yards, 0 TD. Week 16: NONE (injured).
Austin – Week 11: 2 targets, 1 catch, -1 yard, 0 TD. Week 16: 5 targets, 4 catches, 65 yards, 0 TD.
Jefferson – Week 11: 1 goal, 0 catches, 0 yards, 0 TD. Week 16: 3 targets, 2 catches, 27 yards, 0 TD.
Williams – NONE. Week 16: 3 targets, 3 catches, 24 yards, 0 TD.
Pickens being out final matchup was clearly an enormous loss for Pittsburgh. Wants to offer an analogous affect to his Week 11 outing, or higher hopefully, and must differ his focused areas greater than major deep photographs that defenses have squandered just lately, together with Baltimore.
After they do, Pickens presence will knock on wooden help a greater day, and the others utilization might be fascinating to watch. Pittsburgh additionally had 4 drops within the finale, particularly from Pickens, one other head-scratcher from that loss.
Listed here are WRs yards per catch and route run from Week 16:
Flowers utilization down the sphere will certainly be missed alongside along with his quantity, with 20.0 YPC (T-ninth) and 4.17 per route run (fifth) towards Pittsburgh final sport. Compared, Bateman’s 0.67 yards per route run was fully completely different, 68th/75 qualifying WRs. Whereas above the imply in YPC, he caught simply considered one of his three targets at 14 yards.
With out Flowers, Pittsburgh ought to bey capable of key in additional on the remainder of their roster, however don’t underestimate them both.
Austin had above the road marks in every, 16.3 YPR (T-Twenty fourth), and a pair of.24 YPRR (Twenty fourth) in Pickens absence. For context, Austin averaged 15.2 within the common season, in comparison with Pickens comparable 15.3 quantity. Hope they use him to stretch the again finish of the protection extra, and higher YAC than we’ve seen from him and the crew.
Jefferson did have an above common 13.5 YPC, particularly on a 21-yard explosive catch which isn’t sometimes his sport. Jefferson and Williams common route run ranked fiftieth and 68th out of 85 WRs. Once more, extra variance in route operating please.
DEFENSE –
Move/Rush (season ranks), weekly yardage:
Move Yards: Pittsburgh (twenty fifth), 207, 207. Baltimore (thirty first), 205, 217.
Rush Yards: Ravens (1st), 122, 117. Steelers (sixth), 124, 220.
We see each groups have been higher by way of rush yards allowed, although it has waned tremendously within the again half of the 12 months for Pittsburgh, together with the Week 16 Baltimore sport. It was key to their victory and must be higher on either side of the ball.
Situational (season ranks), weekly numbers:
Third down: PIT (2nd) – Week 11: 4-of-11 Week 16: 4-of-10. BAL (T-Seventeenth) – Week 11: 4-of-16, Week 16: 4-of-10.
Fourth down: BAL (third) – Week 11: 0-for-1, Week 16: 0-of-1. Steelers (twenty ninth) – Week 11: N/A, Week 16: N/A.
Pink zone: BAL (twelfth) – Week 11: 0-for-4, Week 16: 2-of-2. PIT (14th) – Week 11: 2-for-2, Week 16: 3-of-5.
An encouraging ingredient to Pittsburgh’s protection nonetheless is limiting third down conversions, together with their Ravens matchups. A draw back is Baltimore’s total success on offense, usually occasions avoiding the down altogether, which occurred notably of their Week 16 win. The extra third and longs, the higher. Baltimore’s protection was common total in 2024, however enhancements from the unit consists of third downs and limiting Pittsburgh’s speeding.
The Ravens have additionally been a stingy fourth down protection, third within the NFL, and stopped every try within the earlier matchups on Pittsburgh’s offense. The Steelers additionally had a fourth down fail finish the sport for them of their loss within the finale. In reality, they ranked thirty first in fourth down conversions in 2024, and the Steelers protection ranks twenty ninth. BARF.
One other think about why I’d wish to see a sooner begin, together with maintaining on the scoreboard. Pink zone seemed higher for each offenses. Huge in how the 2 matchups transpired, particularly Pittsburgh’s struggling pink zone offense shut out, however overcame that with victory. Transformed each journeys in Week 16, however not sufficient alternative to maintain up.
The Steelers protection has allowed a number of pink zone TDs every matchup, excellent charge allowed in Week 11, together with a discouraging uptick to 3-of-5 final time the groups met. How the pink zone goes down is clearly big to the result. Many elements play into this, and the perfect complement of a number of matters as we speak will doubtless win.
To shut, right here’s a visible of defenses cross and run EPA (measures total scoring affect) in Week 16:
Move Protection EPA: 2024: BAL (ninth), PIT (thirteenth). Week 11: BAL (2nd). PIT (4th). Week 16: BAL (4th), PIT (Thirtieth)
Run Protection EPA: 2024: BAL (fifth), PIT (sixteenth). Week 11: BAL (twelfth). PIT (Twenty second). Week 16: BAL (Seventeenth), PIT (twentieth)
The Ravens protection ranked finest in each single side. Prime ten on the season in each cross and run EPA, together with Pittsburgh matchups, largely with high ten ranks. Not what you need to see with how a lot the Steelers are aiming to repair on offense. Much less so in run protection, however have been capable of restrict Pittsburgh nicely total.
The stats make that arduous to argue, however something can occur on a weekly foundation. Pittsburgh has a number of issues to enhance and should achieve this for hopeful victory, or it may lengthen the playoff win drought (since 2016). What an amazing feeling that may be, however Baltimore will definitely have one thing to say about that.
Right here’s to hoping for a Steelers squad that appears significantly better than the final month.
Opponent-Scouting-Experiences: Offense Protection
Harm-Experiences: Steelers Ravens
Thanks for studying and let me know your ideas within the feedback.
