Why the 2024 Seahawks had been mediocre, however in an encouraging method

We’re a few weeks faraway from the top of the 2024 Seattle Seahawks season. They’d the nice misfortune of lacking the playoffs regardless of profitable 10 video games, dropping out on a power of victory tiebreaker for a second consecutive yr.

The Seahawks had a rollercoaster of a season. Three wins to start the Mike Macdonald period, adopted by 5 losses in six, adopted by 4 consecutive wins, and capped off by two damaging losses and two functionally meaningless wins. I’ve been fairly busy and haven’t actually accomplished my very own wrap-up of the season, however I lastly discovered the angle for the season abstract.

The Seahawks had been nonetheless mediocre, simply otherwise

You might argue in any other case however the Seahawks had been a mediocre workforce with robust backing statistical proof. Sure, they gained 10 video games, however the one groups they beat with profitable information had been the Denver Broncos in Week 1 and resting Los Angeles Rams in Week 18. Given ample alternative in opposition to consensus contenders, they folded in opposition to the Inexperienced Bay Packers and Buffalo Payments at dwelling, failed to carry a late lead in opposition to the Minnesota Vikings, and dropped a enjoyable shootout to the Detroit Lions that does have the caveat of a number of key defensive absences.

Imagine it or not, the Seahawks had the worst DVOA of any NFC West workforce. The Arizona Cardinals had been twelfth, adopted by the San Francisco 49ers at 14th, Los Angeles Rams at seventeenth, and the Seahawks at 18th. Seattle’s offense was 18th whereas protection and particular groups had been each tenth (to my amazement on the ST entrance). In addition they ranked twenty eighth in variance, indicating a excessive stage of inconsistency along with mediocrity.

Suppose you’re a mediocre pupil averaging a D in Precalculus, a C- in Civics, a B+ in English, and a C in Chemistry. The next semester you’re averaging a B+ in Precalculus, a C in Civics, however drop to a C- in English and a D in Chemistry. Improved grades in weaker topics and declining grades in stronger topics nonetheless common out to mediocrity.

That’s what the Seahawks did in 2024. Their offense obtained worse to the purpose of the one-and-done expertise for coordinator Ryan Grubb, the protection carried out at an above-average stage after the bye week, whereas the particular groups dipped (and, as I clarified in a latest dialog with Aaron Schatz, would’ve dipped extra by DVOA if not for the stellar seasons Jason Myers and Michael Dickson had).

Lots of the identical points concerning the offensive line, a struggling working recreation, unhealthy penalties on both facet of the ball, and third down and crimson zone offense continued and in some circumstances worsened, whereas new issues arose concerning turnovers, particular groups return recreation disasters, and an lack of ability to both function or defend play motion passes. I guess you didn’t know the Seahawks had been thirty first in EPA/move defending play motion after two above-average performances below Clint Hurtt.

Mediocre is mediocre is mediocre regardless of how you bought there. Seattle not solely did not beat good groups however largely obtained thrashed and infrequently held leads in these video games. Except the New York Giants catastrophe, the Seahawks had been higher than their lowly opposition, though 4th quarter comebacks had been required to beat the New England Patriots and New York Jets. The day Seattle is not mediocre is the day some of these video games in opposition to 10+ loss squads had been emphatic blowouts.

However there are causes for encouragement for the Seahawks
Participant improvement

It was crucial for the Seahawks to have Jaxon Smith-Njigba showcase why he was the primary receiver taken within the 2023 draft. JSN adopted up his good however principally unspectacular rookie marketing campaign with a terrific second season leap, main the workforce with a franchise record-tying 100 receptions, 1,130 yards, and 6 touchdowns. He’s the primary Seahawk since Tyler Lockett in 2019 to carry the workforce triple crown of receiving. His depth of goal elevated from 6.1 to eight.7, his drop price decreased by greater than half, and he was one of many premier third down targets in your complete NFL.

Derick Corridor additionally had a breakthrough second season following a zero-sack rookie yr that was underwhelming sufficient for him to cede some snaps to a completely cooked Frank Clark. He answered with eight sacks, two pressured fumbles, and a game-sealing fumble return landing in opposition to the Atlanta Falcons. It was like watching Boye Mafe’s second season another time however higher.

Maybe probably the most nice shock was the rise of Coby Bryant from reserve security/slot nook to a bona fide beginning security. He tied for the workforce lead with three interceptions and in addition had six passes defensed. Alongside Julian Love, who had a terrific second season in Seattle, it seems just like the Seahawks have their security duo set coming into subsequent season. It immediately creates a chance the place Bryant is a candidate for extending past his rookie deal, one thing that appeared unlikely final yr.

This isn’t to disregard the emergence of AJ Barner as a receiving tight finish, Tyrice Knight arguably exceeding expectations as a beginning linebacker, and Sautoa Laumea having a number of optimistic moments as a run blocker out at proper guard. I assumed this is able to be a top-heavy draft for the Seahawks, however I may need been confirmed improper.

Even when the workforce as a complete didn’t enhance exterior of the win whole, younger gamers at precious positions both confirmed promise or made substantial developmental progress.

The protection’s upward trajectory was a part of the take care of Mike Macdonald

Anticipating an instantaneous repair to a damaged protection was at all times a bit formidable, however this was a superb begin for Macdonald. When Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson had been let go, the Seahawks protection underwent a serious turnaround with Ernest Jones IV and Tyrice Knight because the beginning linebackers. The run protection went from sieve to typically sturdy, which appears essential to Macdonald’s scheme.

I’m not going to argue the whole lot is all patched up; Seattle remains to be not nice at turning pressures into sacks, doesn’t generate plenty of tackles for losses, and didn’t carry out effectively on early downs even after the Jones commerce. It’s nonetheless a serious optimistic that the Seahawks protection ended the season strongly (the final recreation, not withstanding) versus the full collapse of 2023 and the following finish of the Pete Carroll period.

The one defensive gamers of consequence not below contract for 2025 are Ernest Jones (please signal him, John Schneider), Jarran Reed, and Josh Jobe, who’s a restricted free agent. Acknowledging the potential cap casualties in Dre’Mont Jones, Rayshawn Jenkins, and even Uchenna Nwosu, there shouldn’t be plenty of roster churn on the high of the defensive depth chart. Having a fairly excessive stage of continuity ought to solely assist Macdonald implement his defensive imaginative and prescient.

Mike Macdonald was a big departure from Pete Carroll in a single key space

That is considered one of my favourite subplots of Coach Macdonald’s rookie season. That’s a bar graph of Seattle’s 4th down aggressiveness courtesy of rbsdm.com, created by Discipline Gulls alum Ben Baldwin. This can be very simplistic and improper to correlate 4th down choices with having a terrific workforce, however the principle level if that Macdonald was way more prepared to go for it on 4th down with a struggling offense than Pete Carroll was with a number of vastly superior offenses. Carroll routinely ranked within the bottom-half of the NFL in 4th down aggressiveness, significantly within the back-half of his profession.

Fears {that a} coach who comes from a defensive background would lean conservative and “trust his defense” and punt/kick subject objectives on 4th down had been unfounded. Contemplating that Raheem Morris and Dan Quinn are additionally on the high of this listing, maybe the assertion is extra of a fable than something based in actuality.

The onus will not be on Macdonald to be extra conservative when his offense turns almost each 4th and 1 into one thing extra visually obscene than The Aristocrats. The onus is on the offense to get higher on 4th downs.

There are nonetheless causes to be cautious

Being optimistic in regards to the Seahawks’ future—2025 and/or past—means being assured within the quarterback scenario (which is way from settled given the looming Geno Smith contract choice), the offensive coordinator rent, and the offensive line. The OL will not be an space the place John Schneider has earned a lot advantage of the doubt that he’ll “make it right,” to cite considered one of Mike Macdonald’s favourite phrases. I imagine his seat ranges from uncomfortably heat to searing sizzling if the OL is given a budget repair remedy for the umpteenth time and the outcomes are substandard.

How the Seahawks method this offseason must be the indicator of how Schneider views his personal roster. That is somebody who stated the Seahawks underachieved in 2023. Does he nonetheless believes Seattle is a Tremendous Bowl contender that’s only one piece away (spoiler: they aren’t), or will there be some large strikes made that might counsel a willingness to danger taking a step again within the short-term with the plan of getting a better ceiling later? No matter path Schneider chooses—it’s not like these two choices I introduced are the one ones—would be the figuring out issue for 2025 expectations.

I’d additionally word that regardless of repeatedly wishing for the downfall of the Rams and San Francisco 49ers, it hasn’t truly occurred. The Rams have seemingly discovered a slew of younger defensive gems (and, within the case of the offense, Puka Nacua) whereas considerably revamping what was a Tremendous Bowl profitable workforce in 2021. In the event that they discover an insta-successor to Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay doesn’t present any indicators of retiring, they’re going to stay related. The 49ers could must rebuild on the fly however remember the fact that their solely two playoff misses over the previous six seasons concerned extremely unhealthy damage luck. I haven’t even talked about the Arizona Cardinals’ strides made to complete just under .500. This was a reasonably weak NFC West and Seattle didn’t separate itself from the pack. Seattle’s enchancment ought to neither be assumed nor ought to we low cost the numerous chance that the division as a complete will strengthen subsequent season.

The Carroll Period needed to finish completely as a result of it was stale mediocrity. When the offense ranges from middling to excellent however wholly irritating to observe and the protection is exceedingly worse regardless of large useful resource funding, it’s time for a brand new method. 12 months considered one of Mike Macdonald yielded the identical mediocre outcomes, however one which confirmed a path towards a brighter future as a substitute of jogging in place to keep away from falling into the abyss.