Bucs huge receiver Chris Godwin represents the most important pending inside free agent the crew has within the 2025 offseason. There appears to be an excessive amount of mutual curiosity between him and Tampa Bay on the 2 sides reuniting for his third NFL contract.
However what that contract will seem like is a captivating proposition. I wish to take you thru my course of in making an attempt to find out what a good deal between the 2 sides will seem like.
Chris Godwin’s Present Three-Yr Comps
In NFL contract negotiations either side of the negotiating desk look to seek out comparable gamers who’ve already signed contracts as a baseline for his or her presents. When I’m projecting, I like to take a look at the latest three-year pattern dimension and attempt to discover probably the most comparable gamers on the metrics that correlate finest with contract historical past.
Within the huge receiver market these metrics are catches, receiving yards, yards per route run and landing catches. Over the previous three seasons Chris Godwin has 237 catches, 2,623 yards, 1.89 yards per route run and 10 touchdowns. The three closest receivers when it comes to manufacturing in a contract 12 months since 2020 are:
Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photograph by: USA At the moment
Jarvis Landry (2022) – 207 catches, 2,584 yards, 1.99 yds/rr, 11 touchdowns
Cole Beasley (2022) – 231 catches, 2,438 yards, 1.70 yds/rr, 11 touchdowns
Jakobi Meyers (2023) – 209 catches, 2,398 yards, 1.87 yds/rr, eight touchdowns
These three signed contracts that averaged 2.28% of the wage cap within the 12 months they signed as a median per 12 months wage. If we had been to straight apply that to the seemingly $275 million wage cap in 2025 it could be an APY of simply over $6.25 million. The formulation’s that I exploit estimated a variety of $11.7 – $13.0 million APY for Godwin.
Apparently, all three of these receivers had been primarily slot gamers and Godwin has loved his finest seasons taking part in within the slot. And 62% of Godwin’s snaps final 12 months got here within the slot, so he’s sitting at 55% for his profession. Meyers is at 51% for his profession, whereas Beasley was at 86% and Landry was at 67.2%, respectively, all through their careers.
How Chris Godwin’s Projection Appeared Headed Into 2024
However as everyone knows, a lot of Chris Godwin’s manufacturing was hampered by his season-ending ankle dislocation in Week 7. Godwin’s three-season manufacturing headed into 2024, and we get elevated numbers of 285 catches, 3,150 yards, 1.85 yds/rr and 10 touchdowns. His three closest comps for that timeframe had been:
Michael Pittman Jr. (2024) – 296 catches, 3,159 yards, 1.79 yds/rr, 14 touchdowns
Robert Woods (2020) – 232 catches, 3,134 yards, 2.01 yds/rr, 13 touchdowns
D.J. Moore (2022) – 246 catches, 3,525 yards, 2.03 yds/rr, 12 touchdowns
The common of these three receivers’ APY’s as a share of cap within the 12 months signed was simply over 9%. Apply that to 2025’s estimated wage cap and also you get an APY of about $25 million. My projection had him estimated for precisely that.
What Might Have Been…
D.J. Moore (2024) – 252 catches, 3,409 yards, 1.98 yds/rr, 19 touchdowns
Allen Robinson II (2021) – 255 catches, 3,151 yards, 1.87 yds/rr, 17 touchdowns
Keenan Allen (2020) – 303 catches, 3,788 yards, 2.34 yds/rr, 18 touchdowns
The common APY of these contracts as a p.c of cap is 9.9%. That interprets to $27.25 million per 12 months and our projection system had that projection at $30 million.
Discovering The Proper Worth Given What Has Occurred
Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photograph by: USA At the moment
Sadly for Chris Godwin, the harm did happen and completely has an affect on his worth in free company in 2025. That $27.25 – $30 million vary is off the desk utterly. The $23-25 million vary is feasible, however unlikely at this level, particularly with Mike Evans making $23 million in 2024.
The projected quantity I’ve settled into for Godwin is $19 million per 12 months. It represents the common of the 2024 projection of $25 million and 2025’s high-end projection of $13 million. That comes out to $19 million per 12 months.
When it comes to size, three years has been the candy spot that receivers have been making an attempt to get to in offers. Godwin himself went for a three-year deal at $20 million per seasonon his final contract in 2022. And with him getting into his age-29 season in 2025, Godwin will need greater than a one- or two-year deal.
And the Bucs gained’t wish to go to 4 or extra years at this level in his profession. So one other three-year deal mixes safety for Godwin properly with flexibility for the crew.
Different Notes
Bucs WR Chris Godwin – Photograph by: USA At the moment
The Bucs may avoid wasting cap house if they can re-sign Chris Godwin earlier than February 20. That’s the date his present contract voids and his 2026 and 2027 void cash accelerates into the 2025 cap. However this doesn’t make an extension a foregone conclusion – and definitely not by that date.
The Bucs have proven they won’t let a deadline coerce them right into a unexpectedly negotiated deal. And the crew has loads of different maneuvers it might probably make to create cap house to the place they don’t should depend on a Godwin extension.
It also needs to be talked about that there’s an infinitesimal probability that they use the franchise tag on Godwin. Whereas the overall tag for huge receivers is round $25.7 million, the Bucs have already tagged Godwin twice earlier than, first in 2021 after which once more in 2022.
The NFL/NFLPA collective bargaining settlement requires {that a} participant tagged thrice be paid both 120% of the common of the High 5 salaries on the place ($32,200,500), 144% of the participant’s earlier wage ($28,800,000) or the common of the High 5 salaries for the best paid place within the league (QB, $55,620,000). These are value prohibitive for Tampa Bay, so don’t anticipate Godwin to get the franchise tag in 2025 as it could clog the crew’s wage cap with such an enormous cap quantity on the books initially of free company.
Projections Ought to Be Handled As Ranges
Look elsewhere and you will notice different values for what Chris Godwin will signal for. I’ve him at $19 million APY. Professional Soccer Focus has him at $20 million. Spotrac has him at $22.5 million.
I’m clearly low man on the totem pole, however between my valuation and the excessive finish of Spotrac you get a stable vary. Varied components will decide the place inside that vary the ultimate quantity falls, together with ensures and money movement.
Hopefully, this has given you a glimpse into how these valuations work and will probably be fascinating to see what Godwin finally can command in free company if he will get there – or how a lot he re-signs for with Tampa Bay earlier than free company begins.
