American Soccer Now’s Blake Thomsen thinks the US has what it takes to beat Belgium, and he breaks it down for you right here on this extremely detailed take a look at the spherical of 16 match.
BY
Blake Thomsen
Posted
June 30, 2014
12:05 PM
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APPROXIMATELY FOUR YEARS and one week after the United State’s gut-wrenching loss to Ghana, the Yanks are again within the knockout stage for the second straight World Cup. Welcome to the ASN tactical preview, knockout stage version.
BELGIUM OVERVIEW
Belgium got here into the event as such a stylish darkish horse that it was kind of perceived as a real title contender. On paper, the Belgians have met expectations, profitable all three matches en path to the highest of Group H. However it hasn’t been simple—Belgium received every recreation by one aim, scoring the winner within the eightieth, 88th, and 78th minute, respectively. Contemplating that its group opponents had been Algeria, Russia, and South Korea, it was a removed from convincing show.
To make issues worse, the Purple Devils have suffered a slew of accidents in addition to Steven Defour’s crimson card suspension, giving them as few as 17 totally match gamers on Tuesday. Given the damage shakeup, it’s almost definitely that we’ll see one thing like this (nonetheless very sturdy) 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 hybrid:
Chelsea-owned striker Romelu Lukaku has had a poor event—capped by a mini-tantrum after an early substitution towards Russia—however he’ll nonetheless nearly definitely begin alone up prime.
All-world winger Eden Hazard hasn’t been at his finest however has nonetheless notched a pair of game-winning assists. On the alternative wing will most likely be Dries Mertens, who performed himself into the beginning XI with an excellent winner in recreation one towards Algeria.
And Kevin de Bruyne has shined within the No. 10/attacking central midfield position—it’s price noting that he reduce the U.S. to items in the same position 13 months in the past.
Central midfielders Axel Witsel and Marouane Fellaini are troublesome to inform aside on tv based mostly on their related appearances, however their types of play are much more divergent than their matching poofy hairstyles. At six-foot-four, Fellaini is immense within the air, and he has maybe the world’s finest chest management—be careful for the benefit with which he can management 60-yard balls through the unconventional technique. Witsel is smoother on the ball and is a far larger attacking risk with the ball at his ft than his middle midfield companion. Though Fellaini is probably not world-class on the ball, he’s an enormous aim risk along with his head, as he confirmed along with his equalizer towards Algeria.
On the again, Belgium’s defenders come from a who’s who of the world’s greatest golf equipment. However that doesn’t imply the Purple Devils’ protection is elite. The very weak Group H didn’t do a lot to check Belgium, however the U.S. ought to ask extra questions than Algeria, Russia, or South Korea did. Toby Alderweireld, who performs sparingly for Atletico Madrid, performs out of place at proper again. Middle again Daniel van Buyten performs for Bayern Munich, however at 36, he’s far previous his prime. Manchester Metropolis captain Vincent Kompany missed Belgium’s closing group recreation towards South Korea with a groin damage—he might play towards the U.S., however he received’t be in prime type. And potential left again Jan Vertonghen can also be a pure middle again, which he performs for Tottenham.
RECENT HISTORY
One of many greatest blemishes on U.S. Soccer’s wonderful 12 months 2013 was the blowout 4-2 loss to Belgium in Cleveland final Could. The ultimate rating most likely flattered the Individuals, who solely made it a two-goal recreation with the assistance of a doubtful late penalty, taken and scored by Clint Dempsey.
However it’s necessary to not learn an excessive amount of into that recreation, because the U.S. was lacking Michael Bradley and Jurgen Klinsmann performed simply two middle midfielders—Jermaine Jones and Sacha Kljestan—towards an in-form Belgium facet. With far an excessive amount of area in midfield, the Purple Devils had been capable of do as they happy offensively, putting 4 deserved targets.
Count on a vastly completely different contest this time round. The present U.S. system is ready up to remove area within the middle of the attacking third, which is the place Belgium prefers to function. With Jones and Bradley forward of Kyle Beckerman, the Yanks will present a far sterner take a look at in Brazil.
BELGIUM’S ATTACKING STYLE
In current months, Belgium has struggled to get again to the terribly excessive degree it reached in World Cup qualifying, through which it went 8-2-0 in one in all Europe’s most well-rounded teams.
An enormous cause for this drop-off is the Achilles rupture that striker Christian Benteke suffered in Aston Villa coaching in April. Benteke’s alternative is the succesful Lukaku, however although the 2 are related bodily, Benteke is much extra comfy stretching defenses with runs in behind the opposition’s again. Lukaku prefers to drop deep to obtain the ball when Belgium is in possession in midfield. It really works nicely at Everton, which makes use of the area created by Lukaku’s motion to unencumber the Premier League’s finest attacking fullback duo. However it isn’t supreme for Belgium, because it slows down the tempo of its midfield play. Belgium additionally has zero pure width, with two wingers preferring to chop in and two middle backs masquerading as fullbacks, who’re typically unable to offer an outlet close to the touchline.
With Lukaku posing a minimal threat excessive or in behind, Belgium is pressured to play much more methodically than it did when Benteke was match—see the three:15 mark of the above U.S.-Belgium spotlight video for a very good instance of the dimension that Belgium lacks in Benteke’s absence.
The seemingly methodical tempo will swimsuit the Yanks, who’re fairly comfy sustaining a defensive form. Nonetheless, the U.S. wants to verify “methodical” doesn’t turn into “never touching the ball or getting out of its own half” because it did towards Germany. If the U.S. is unable to 1) efficiently press and a couple of) maintain possession of the ball in midfield after it’s received, a repeat of the bunkered-in, no offensive risk Germany recreation might happen. In favor of the U.S. trigger, Belgium isn’t practically nearly as good as Germany, and the U.S. ought to have more energizing legs after 4 relaxation days as an alternative of three. However Klinsmann wants to verify his males apply adequate strain on the ball and do sufficient with it to keep away from one other 37% possession, zero photographs heading in the right direction debacle.
BELGIUM’S LUMBERING DEFENSE
Like so many elite groups in trendy soccer, Belgium performs a 4-2-3-1-type system that defensively leaves loads of area down the flanks. This fits the U.S., which lately has by no means been comfy breaking groups down via the center of the protection, anyway. The presence of Belgium’s wonderful central midfielders even additional invitations the U.S. to take the play out huge—and this invitation can be warmly accepted.
At this level, the U.S. isn’t stunning anybody offensively. All harmful assaults—other than Clint Dempsey’s first-minute aim towards Ghana—are coming down the best flank, and 90% or so of these are involving Johnson’s bursting runs, both with or with out the ball. Johnson regarded past exhausted towards Germany, and it’s crucial to the U.S. trigger that he has recovered sufficient to run laborious for 90 minutes (or nevertheless lengthy it takes for the U.S. to take the lead). However even when he’s nonetheless considerably fatigued, Johnson is a mortal lock to trigger Belgium at the very least some issues. Who else can be unleashed on Belgium’s 4 middle again set, although, is as much as Klinsmann.
DeAndre Yedlin has been vigorous in two substitute appearances, however is he prepared to start out a World Cup recreation within the midfield? No assertive reply right here—I’m glad I’m not Klinsmann concerning that one. Yedlin’s pace makes him a tantalizing proposition, however his lack of expertise within the place might make Alejandro Bedoya or Graham Zusi a greater match.
One other pacey possibility is Aron Johannsson, who would pose issues along with his motion in behind Belgium’s middle backs. Dempsey regarded simply as drained towards Germany as Johnson did, so it’s not unimaginable that Johannsson (or maybe Chris Wondolowski) might begin, transferring Dempsey to a withdrawn ahead position. Elsewhere, the Combine Diskerud whispers are getting louder—deploying him behind a lone striker might be somewhat wise, as nobody within the U.S. participant pool is as adept at enjoying the kind of intelligent via balls that may undo Belgium’s gradual protection.
A possible cheeky lineup deployment would see Johnson moved as much as midfield, Omar Gonzalez retained at middle again, and Geoff Cameron restored to the beginning lineup, however this time at proper again. Small sample-size alert, however Cameron has neutralized Hazard to the tune of zero targets or assists in three earlier begins when Cameron has performed proper again for Stoke and Hazard left wing for Chelsea. Cameron is smart reverse Hazard past easy membership success, too. Cameron’s finest attribute might be one-on-one defending, and tough dribbling is Hazard’s specialty.
One closing observe: this author thinks a begin for Jozy Altidore shouldn’t be going to occur. If he’s something lower than 100%, it makes little to no sense to unleash him towards one of many World Cup’s most bodily imposing middle again pairings.
No matter who Klinsmann names on the workforce sheet, anticipate an emphasis on getting behind Belgium’s again 4 to create high quality goal-scoring probabilities. With 4 middle backs plus Fellaini on the pitch, the Purple Devils can be powerful to beat on set items—a U.S. aim or two from the run of play appears essential.
HAZARD WATCH
Earlier than the Neymar and James Rodriguez mania of the 2014 World Cup, the listing of gamers in world soccer who might most reliably rating a aim from nothing would most likely learn as follows: Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo, Gareth Bale, Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Eden Hazard. The U.S. has already vanquished a type of gamers on this event—although a non-fully match one, at that—however one other is approaching Tuesday.
Hazard is a very magnificent dribbler, and he additionally has a terrific shot and eye for the killer move. He led Chelsea in each targets and assists final season, and he’s delivered two game-winning assists in his two begins this event. In some ways, Hazard is considerably of a reverse Arjen Robben. Deployed as a left winger, Hazard is consistently trying to reduce onto his stronger proper foot, from which he can move or shoot. He’s not fairly the aim scorer that Robben is, however he’s a much better passer, and at instances that may make Hazard much more harmful than the speedy Dutchman.
The U.S. will have to be cautious to not foul Hazard in and across the field. He’s a foul-drawing machine, and Chelsea has reaped the rewards in his two seasons at Stamford Bridge by scoring tons of targets off penalties and harmful set items. Given the excess of top and harmful leapers in Belgium’s beginning lineup, the U.S. should make sure that to keep away from conceding too many fouls in harmful areas.
It’s price noting that Hazard has not often shined for Belgium in the identical method he has for Chelsea or, beforehand, Lille. The primary tactical cause for this, so far as I’m involved, is the absence of overlapping runs from fullbacks for Belgium. Provided that Belgium typically deploys Vertonghen or Arsenal middle again Thomas Vermaelen at left again, Hazard lacks a constant overlapper to each create area to dribble as nicely open up a harmful move. Within the above spotlight video, observe how ceaselessly Hazard waits till area is created by his fullbacks’ runs earlier than he makes his transfer, whether or not dribbling and taking pictures or discovering an open teammate (generally the overlapping fullback himself).
In step with most of his Belgium profession, Hazard has continued to edge extra towards merely above common than famous person degree on this event. With that mentioned, he’s nonetheless supplied these two game-winning assists. Even at his worst, Hazard stays a serious risk.
As I discussed within the earlier part, Cameron can be well-suited to enjoying towards Hazard. Johnson can be too, although, as he’s additionally a succesful one-on-one defender and is but to fail a deal with on this World Cup. With that in thoughts, the U.S. must be in comparatively good condition towards Hazard, until Klinsmann shocks everybody by enjoying Yedlin at proper again.
The ultimate Hazard merchandise of observe: very similar to Ronaldo, he doesn’t play an entire lot of protection. It’s no coincidence that the U.S. had by far its finest recreation going ahead by using the spacious attacking proper wing on Ronaldo’s facet of the sphere. Johnson and Co. can be trying to exploit the same area prone to be discovered towards Belgium. Under is Hazard’s warmth map towards Russia, which exhibits the constraints of his defensive effort.
HIGHLY SPECIFIC PREDICTION
It wouldn’t be a Blake Thomsen prediction part with out relentless optimism, proper? My picks to date: U.S. 2-1 over Ghana, U.S. 2-0 over Portugal, and U.S. 1-1 towards Germany. Is there a pattern rising? Probably not, besides that I both precisely predict or overestimate the U.S.’s efficiency. With that in thoughts, I’m calling U.S. 6, Belgium 0. That method, we’ve received loads of wiggle room for me to be too assured however for the U.S. to nonetheless win. Simply kidding. To the actual factor:
Belgium will rating first, as a result of the U.S. wouldn’t have it every other method. Hazard will go on a mazy run and win a deserved penalty within the twentieth minute, which he’ll convert with much more ease than feels affordable. This can spark the U.S. again to life, although. Johnson will equalize simply earlier than the half, and the Yanks will go into the locker room with their tails up. Lastly—FINALLY—it’ll be time for Bradley’s 2014 World Cup second. He’ll notch an excellent winner within the 73rd minute after superb work from Dempsey. Go loopy people, go loopy. And provides Bradley a break. The Yanks can be on to the quarterfinals.
U.S. 2, Belgium 1
Does this consequence appear doable? Who must step up for the U.S.? Who do the Yanks must maintain quiet for Belgium? Tell us within the feedback part.
Blake Thomsen is an ASN contributing editor. Observe him on Twitter. Warmth map courtesy of FIFA.com.
