ASN: Assessing the Octagon with 2021 over and simply two home windows remaining

The November video games are over and CONCACAF now has simply two qualifying home windows remaining. There’s now separation between the highest half and the underside half. ASN’s Brian Sciaretta seems on the prime 4 groups and discusses the professionals/cons of the place every sits of their pursuit of qualifying. 

BY

Brian Sciaretta

Posted
November 17, 2021
11:00 AM

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THE OCTAGON or “Ocho” will now head into the ultimate two home windows with every workforce taking part in 3 times in January/February after which 3 times once more in March. Every workforce has performed eight video games heading into 2022 and after the November window, we will see a transparent separation between the highest half and the underside half.

The highest half consists of Canada, the US, Mexico, and Panama – in that order. Simply two factors separate main Canada from fourth-place Panama. A five-point hole separates Panama from the underside half the place Costa Rica sits with 9 factors, Jamaica with seven factors, El Salvador with six factors, and Honduras with simply three.

It isn’t not possible for Costa Rica to maneuver into the highest 4, however for now it looks as if present prime 4 are the most probably to complete within the prime 4. We simply don’t know their locations.

As most know by now, the highest three qualify for the World Cup whereas the fourth-place workforce has to go to an intercontinental playoff – the place it might doubtless be the underdog.

Between Canada, the USA, Mexico, and Panama you’ve gotten a four-team race for 3 spots.

Here’s a take a look at every workforce and why their followers ought to really feel each optimistic and anxious over their present standing.

Canada

Factors: 16

Optimistic look

Canada is atop the group, is taking part in properly, has but to lose, and the 2-1 win over Mexico capped a six-point window and created a way of euphoria the nation has by no means seen about its males’s nationwide workforce in properly over a era. The workforce is loaded with expertise with Alphonso Davies maybe the most effective participant in all of CONCACAF, Jonathan David/Cyle Larin comprising of the most effective ahead tandem, and Tajon Buchanan one other budding participant full promise. Everyone seems to be stepping up and on Tuesday it was Alistair Johnston who made a giant play to create Larin’s first aim over Mexico.

Operating into the winter break prime of the desk like… #CANMNT #WCQ #ForCanada pic.twitter.com/UTl1o0ugku

— Canada Soccer (@CanadaSoccerEN) November 17, 2021

Schedule-wise, Canada is completed with Mexico and doesn’t have an away journey to the US. A number of the closely lifting has been achieved.

Canada appear is using a wave of positivity that appears destined to hold it to Qatar after which in a spot to construct up its workforce forward of co-hosting the match in 2026.

Pessimistic look

Canada has carried out properly to this point however has been doing so principally at house. Of its eight video games, 5 have been in Canada. Whereas it has earned attracts on the street towards the USA, Mexico, and Jamaica (definitely very robust accomplishments), it would now need to play 4 of its remaining six video games on the street in Central America. Honduras, El Salvador, Costa Rica and Panama are robust locations to play and a hiccup or two ought to be anticipated.

There are additionally a bunch of different issues that ought to trigger concern. In every of the upcoming home windows, the workforce goes to need to journey so much. 1) Assemble in Canada, 2) journey to Central America and play sport one 3) return all the best way to Canada for sport two and 4) journey again to Central America for sport three. On prime of the journey, the fluctuation in temperature between Canada within the winter and Central America could possibly be eighty or ninety levels.

Scenes in Edmonton pic.twitter.com/R7aecVjRWs

— Brian Sciaretta (@BrianSciaretta) November 17, 2021

Whereas 4 video games are on the street, one of many house video games is towards a U.S. workforce that may be a regional energy that has received each the Gold Cup and Nations League in 2021 whereas beating Mexico 3 times.

Additionally, mix this with the truth that for the January window, Canada’s MLS primarily based gamers will nonetheless be offseason and that makes it more durable contemplating the Canadian workforce, whereas boasting an robust XI, remains to be not as deep because the U.S. or Mexico but.

United States

Factors: 15

Optimistic look

The USA workforce is usually bettering. With out query, the workforce is in a a lot better begin than it was a yr in the past. It’s beginning lineups now usually boast a mean age of below 23 so a studying curve was anticipated. For years, American followers have been stressing the way forward for this workforce. However the discuss now could be turning into one thing substantive on the sphere. And the workforce can also be getting deeper. It received the Gold Cup with principally reserve gamers after which towards Mexico this previous window, there was no Gio Reyna, no Sergino Dest, Christian Pulisic needed to come off the bench, and John Brooks was left off the roster as a consequence of kind. The U.S. workforce can miss chunks of its fundamental group and nonetheless compete properly.

That is essential when you think about the 2 house video games in January are towards El Salvador and Honduras, that are struggling to compete within the Octagon. If the U.S. workforce can compete prefer it ought to, it ought to rack up factors in January. Whenever you take a look at Panama’s robust window in January, there may be actual alternative for some large separation.

Pessimistic look

The USA has three brutal street video games remaining. Heading to Canada goes to be no enjoyable and the U.S. workforce has by no means received a aggressive sport away at Mexico or away at Costa Rica. After a loss on the street to Panama, can the U.S. workforce discover a technique to eke out factors in any of its 4 hardest street video games? The sport towards Jamaica wasn’t reassuring.

That places an uncommon quantity of stress on the workforce to win its remaining house video games – that are very doable, however the workforce can’t slip up. Large squad rotations labored within the street journey to Honduras however didn’t towards Panama.  The U.S. workforce must enter March in a robust place as a result of that window is its hardest of qualifying.

The U.S. workforce is younger and that has paid off, however the remaining a part of the schedule is a take a look at of maturity. Successful the hardest street video games on this area is tough. Simply, take a look at the beating Mexico took in November if you happen to’re searching for proof.

Mexico

Factors: 14

Optimistic look

Mexico had a brutal November window. They’d robust street assessments towards the US and Canada and got here up brief towards two emotionally modified opponents in hostile environments. Truthful sufficient.

However regardless of that, Mexico is in robust place if you take a look at the standings. Simply three of its first eight video games have been at house. It solely took a beating in its two hardest video games. In contrast with the US – which has its hardest street video games developing – Mexico was additionally ready to attract at Panama, win at Costa Rica, and win at El Salvador. These seven street factors greater than offset the 2 losses in November to place it on tempo to qualify.

Azteca is a brutal place to play and Costa Rica, Panama, and El Salvador shall be heavy underdogs. Internet hosting the U.S. workforce will be tough because the U.S. workforce ought to be assured and has draw there the final two cycles. However by the point the third window rolls round, Mexico may have momentum and shall be trying to go in for the kill towards its archrival. 

Pessimistic Look

Video games aren’t performed on paper. On paper, Mexico ought to be favored in most of its upcoming video games. However Mexico’s hardest opponent isn’t one other CONCACAF workforce. It’s Mexico. This workforce can beat itself when it’s down and the November window set the stage for a winter of discontent the place followers are offended with head coach Tata Martino. The gamers say dumb stuff to the press and are visibly pissed off on the sphere (this was seen towards the U.S. in Cincinnati and towards Mexico in Edmonton).

Distraught Mexico twitter is the most effective Twitter https://t.co/HmJGxHTl57

— Brian Sciaretta (@BrianSciaretta) November 17, 2021

All it’s going to take is a stumble out of the gate in January and the usually supportive house crowd might flip offended at its personal gamers. Mexico’s ardour for its personal nationwide workforce cuts each methods and the self-destruct button is inside attain.

Panama

Factors: 14

Optimistic look

Who’s hotter than Panama now? The November window was epic for Panama which rallied from a 2-0 deficit to defeat Honduras 3-2 on the street. Then at house to El Salvador, Panama was down 1-0 within the second half however defeated Hugo Perez’s workforce 2-1 to finish an ideal six -point window.

A workforce that may will itself to win by way of a perception in itself is at all times a harmful workforce. The gamers are all very emotional and are in a position to rating targets when wanted. They’re seemingly by no means out of any sport and the workforce rotates successfully – in order that they’re not reliant on anybody or two gamers.

Pessimistic look

The workforce has been boosted largely by two wins – a 1-0 house win over the US when the U.S. was simply off. Then a staggering 3-0 win over Jamaica on the street. However Panama additionally drew at house to Costa Rica and drew at house Mexico (that are under what the U.S. and Canada did to the identical opponents). It additionally misplaced on the street to El Salvador. Panama’s most up-to-date wins have been towards the 2 worst groups within the Octagon and Panama wanted epic rallies for these wins.

Panama has a more durable schedule than the US, Mexico, and probably Canada. If it could actually win at Costa Rica or Mexico, solely then will they’ve the within monitor in direction of a prime three end.

The workforce has a wave of constructive emotion proper now however the largest detriment to momentum is time. Two months till the following qualifier will halt that momentum and Panama must press ahead with its expertise. Whereas Panama is sweet, it doesn’t have the expertise of Canada, Mexico, or the US.

Outlook

Soccer is hard to foretell, and predicting CONCACAF is nearly not possible. One dangerous bounce, one dangerous name, one large mistake can change every little thing.

Regardless of the issues Mexico had in November, it has the correct schedule forward to not simply qualify however to complete atop. 4 out of six video games at Azteca has it simply the place it desires to be. It has already accomplished its three hardest street video games within the USA, Panama, and Canada.  El Tri additionally has a good variety of factors on the street. November’s scheduling was simply too robust. Tata Martino is likely to be embattled, however Mexico ought to discover the rest of the schedule winnable. It is in a a lot stronger place than individuals notice.

The USA doesn’t have a straightforward schedule like Mexico, however the January window is favorable. The workforce is bettering, and the younger gamers are gaining expertise a quick charge.

Canada has put itself in an incredible place. The 4 street video games and journey are troublesome however it would develop into simpler for the gamers to take in the event that they sense a World Cup ticket is getting shut. They could have some hiccups, however they’ve sufficient expertise and expertise to cross the road.

Panama looks as if the odd workforce out right here. The schedule is hard, their momentum will dissipate with the two-month break. Panama is an effective workforce, however a bit behind the opposite three.

For that cause, I’ll predict the highest 4 order of 1) Mexico, 2) United States, 3) Canada, 4) Panama