ASN: Crunching the Numbers: The U.S. Girls’s Crew

Because the U.S. ladies’s nationwide staff prepares to face Colombia Monday evening, ASN’s John D. Halloran analyzed some statistics and produced some shocking—and even disturbing—developments.

BY

John D. Halloran

Posted
June 21, 2015
10:30 PM

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AHEAD OF THE UNITED STATES ladies’s nationwide staff knockout spherical matchup with Colombia on Monday, pundits in every single place have tried each which option to account for the U.S.’ latest defensive excellence, in addition to the staff’s offensive failings. And a whole lot of that’s pure, as soccer is a sport that lends itself to all kinds of subjective evaluation.

However what occurs when the entire tactical breakdowns, participant bias, and evaluation are stripped away and all that’s left are the chilly, onerous numbers?

THE COACH

For a lot of, the USA’ failure to safe “beautiful” wins in latest months lies straight with head coach Jill Ellis. And plenty of of those self same followers appear to consider that the staff could be higher off if it has not fired earlier coach Tom Sermanni. However the numbers reveal that the 2 coaches have practically similar information.

In his 16 months in cost, Sermanni led the staff to 18 wins, two losses, and 4 attracts, whereas Ellis, who has additionally been in cost for 16 months, has a 20-2-7 document going again to final April. So, a push.

DEFENSIVE EXCELLENCE

One shiny spot for Ellis of late has been the American protection, which has secured 11 shutouts within the staff’s final 15 video games. And a better have a look at the statistics reveals two vital causes behind that success—the inclusion of Julie Johnston within the beginning XI and Ellis lastly selecting a constant backline.

Johnston first grew to become a daily starter in March’s Algarve Cup in opposition to Norway (her solely earlier begin got here in April 2013 underneath Sermanni). Ellis herself admits that she was “forced” to make use of Johnston on the time as a result of accidents on the time to Christie Rampone and Whitney Engen. However nevertheless it occurred, it has labored.

Within the 10 video games that Johnston has began since March, the U.S. has picked up seven shutouts and solely allowed three targets. And within the 9 video games since Ellis has settled on a again line of Meghan Klingenberg, Becky Sauerbrunn, Johnston, and Ali Krieger (with Hope Solo in objective), the U.S. has allowed simply two targets in 9 video games—leading to a outstanding 0.22 targets in opposition to common. Much more spectacular is the truth that 5 of the seven groups the U.S. has shutout throughout that streak are ranked in FIFA’s prime 20.

OFFENSIVE WOES

Decidedly much less spectacular, nevertheless, is the U.S.’ offensive manufacturing. The Individuals have been shutout in 5 of the staff’s final 13 video games and, as ESPN’s Paul Carr identified final week, that degree of offensive incompetence is unknown to the U.S. ladies within the trendy period.

#USWNT has been shut out 5 instances in its final 13 video games, after being shut out 5 instances in its earlier 176 video games.

— Paul Carr (@PCarrESPN) June 16, 2015

So what, or who, is inflicting this offensive malaise? Tactical evaluation has its place, however could be extremely tough to quantify. So we determined to take a look at some statistics. 

Taking a look at targets, assists, factors (two factors for a objective and one level for an help), and minutes performed, Abby Wambach is much and away probably the most impactful participant throughout Ellis’ 29 video games in cost.

And that narrative matches nicely with what most analysts mentioned after the U.S.’s latest win over Nigeria—that whereas the U.S.’ ways are nonetheless very direct, these ways work a lot better when Wambach is on the pitch.

Nevertheless, an attention-grabbing factor occurs when the “cupcake” video games—lots of which occur in opposition to inferior CONCACAF competitors—are eradicated. Of Ellis’ 29 video games in cost since final April, the U.S. has performed 16 video games in opposition to groups that certified for the knockout rounds of the 2015 World Cup. And searching solely at these 16 video games, a very totally different image emerges.

Utilizing solely the information from opponents of “knockout round” high quality, Wambach drops from the most efficient participant (per minute performed) on the squad to sixth whereas fellow strikers Alex Morgan, Amy Rodriguez, and Sydney Leroux all transfer forward of her.

Additionally shocking is that Christen Press and Tobin Heath, each fan favorites and generally accepted to be among the many staff’s most expert gamers, are pretty low on each lists, whatever the degree of competitors. 

GETTING LLOYD ON TRACK

One closing have a look at the numbers additionally reveals a doable cause behind the latest offensive struggles of Carli Lloyd. With 15 targets within the Ellis period and 7 of these coming in opposition to top-level competitors, Lloyd is clearly one of many prime Individuals within the sport. However Lloyd has been in a funk currently, going scoreless in her final 10 video games. For comparability’s sake, the final time Lloyd began a scoreless streak this lengthy, one has to go all the best way again to 2008.

So, why would possibly Lloyd be struggling? Maybe it’s as a result of her legs are shot. In Ellis’ 29 video games in cost, Lloyd has began 28 matches and gone the space in 26. To place that into context, Lloyd has extra minutes than goalkeeper Hope Solo and backup keeper Ashlyn Harris mixed.

After all, Lloyd has gone into funks earlier than in main tournaments, solely to come back up huge when the U.S. wanted her most. In each the 2008 and 2012 Olympics, Lloyd’s solely targets within the knockout rounds got here within the match finals, when she scored the game-winning objective to guide the U.S. to the gold medal every time.

The U.S. performs Colombia on Monday (8pm ET, Fox Sports activities 1).