Tim Howard is firmly entrenched because the U.S. No. 1 in objective, however even Jurgen Klinsmann has mentioned Brad Guzan is greater than only a backup. So who ought to begin for the Yanks? Blake Thomsen analyzes the stats.
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Blake Thomsen
Posted
August 16, 2013
10:58 AM
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TIM HOWARD SHOULD comfortably retain his beginning position with Everton when the English Premier League kicks off on Saturday—even when Roberto Martinez could half-heartedly trace in any other case. However Howard’s job will not be fairly so secure with the US nationwide group.
At the very least that’s what the statistics counsel.
A detailed evaluation of Howard and Guzan’s Premier League performances final season illuminates the varied strengths and weaknesses of the 2 keepers. And if coaches based mostly their selections strictly on stats, the US may be taking a look at a altering of the guard within the run-up to the 2014 World Cup. Right here’s what we uncovered.
Since each keepers began 36 league video games in 2012-13, we will look carefully at a number of necessary stats and analyze the outcomes inside a sufficiently massive pattern measurement.
Essentially the most primary stat for goalkeepers, except for the clear sheet, is save proportion. It supplies a pleasant barometer of how good a goalkeeper is at merely conserving the ball out of the again of the web on any given shot. Premier League common typically sits round 69%, and even in a supposed down 12 months, Howard nonetheless posted a really strong 70% (91 saves on 130 photographs) in 2012-13.
Guzan posted a well-below league common 64.5% (118 saves on 183 photographs), however the Aston Villa man will get at the very least some leeway for having a porous backline in entrance of him. The eyeball take a look at would counsel that Villa was liable to defensive breakdowns and conceding photographs in harmful positions, and final 12 months’s statistics assist verify this assertion.
Of Guzan’s 118 saves, 68% got here from photographs contained in the field. In distinction, solely 58% of Howard’s saves had been from photographs contained in the field. Everton did a markedly higher job of protecting Howard, and thus the New Jersey native benefitted from dealing with a far greater charge of less-threatening lengthy vary photographs.
Even contemplating the comparatively decrease degree of problem of his saves, it’s secure to say that Howard’s mark continues to be superior to Guzan’s. Howard has a deserved popularity as a wonderful shot stopper, and final 12 months’s efficiency solely additional confirmed that high quality.
It’s in different key areas, although, the place Guzan shined and Howard faltered.
Contemplate their complete saves parried to the opposition, which refers back to the variety of rebounds every goalkeeper spilled to opposing attackers. Although Guzan made nearly 30 extra saves than Howard (and confronted comparatively tougher photographs), he really allowed two fewer rebounds (23) than Howard (25).
A traditional instance of Howard’s struggles on this space got here on the final day of the season, when Juan Mata was readily available to faucet in a poor spill from Howard.
Howard’s most important—in addition to most seen and criticized—space of battle final season was his goalkeeping errors. Solely 4 Premier League keepers dedicated extra errors than Howard’s six, and 4 of those led on to objectives. The poor efficiency final season may probably be thought of an outlier, but it surely turns into extra worrying when seen in context with Howard’s current seasons.
Howard’s Errors, by Season
2008-09…..2
2009-10…..0
2010-11…..4
2011-12…..2
2012-13…..6
Within the final three years, Howard has averaged 4 errors per season, an alarmingly excessive complete, particularly contemplating within the two seasons earlier than that he averaged only one error. All of the sudden the two-error season of 2011-12 appears to be like extra like an outlier than final 12 months’s six.
Additionally, on condition that Everton has had a formidable, shot-limiting protection for every of the previous three years, it’s much more regarding that Howard has made so many errors. Confronted with a comparatively low variety of photographs, he posted a dismal 21.7 photographs confronted per error final season.
On the opposite finish of the spectrum is Guzan. He confronted 53 extra photographs than Howard final season however made simply two errors. This left him joint league greatest with Manchester United’s David de Gea, one of many EPL’s best keepers.
Extra impressively nonetheless, Guzan delivered an unbelievable 91.5 photographs confronted per error, which is over 4 occasions larger than Howard’s mark (and properly above de Gea’s 55 photographs confronted/error, too).
The ultimate space of concern for Howard is his typically shaky positioning and decision-making on balls performed into the field. Guzan, then again, has lengthy been praised for his sound judgment within the space.
Admittedly it is a much more subjective class than the others, however it’s price noting.
Although not technically an error, Howard didn’t precisely cowl himself in glory on this late Norwich Metropolis equalizer final November.
Video: Bassong equalizes late on towards Everton
In a frustratingly related objective this previous June, Howard remained glued to his line as Jermaine Beckford nodded in to tie the Hexagonal contest at one in Kingston, Jamaica. Howard has Brad Evans and his stoppage-time winner to thank for deflecting consideration away from his late mishap.
With the World Cup looming, Klinsmann could think about giving the extra dependable (if much less spectacular) Guzan an opportunity within the upcoming qualifiers. Nothing derails a World Cup marketing campaign faster than a goalkeeping howler (see Inexperienced, Rob), and Klinsmann won’t want to see all of his laborious work undone by a Howard error or unclaimed cross in Brazil.
Nonetheless, Howard retains a bonus in pure shot stopping, which offsets a few of the injury achieved by the weaker areas of his sport.
This terrific second-half exhibiting towards Russia was simply 9 months in the past, and it serves as a great reminder of why Howard continues to be the Yanks’ first selection possibility in internet.
Klinsmann could really feel Howard is healthier geared up to deal with the same onslaughts the U.S. could face from world-class opponents on the World Cup. Whether or not or not that compensates for the added danger of him permitting gentle objectives is as much as Klinsmann to determine.
After a 12 months in internet for Aston Villa, although, Guzan is actually no stranger to onslaughts himself. Plus, with the strides the U.S. has made in current months, Klinsmann could really feel that his facet shall be higher geared up to face huge opponents and should not have to fret about ever actually coming below siege in Brazil.
Clearly it’s a fancy scenario with out a simple decision for the Yanks’ boss.
Don’t doubt that Klinsmann shall be following his two keepers’ each transfer as soon as the Premier League begins this weekend. How they carry out in England’s high flight will possible be a think about figuring out who will begin the opening match in Brazil 2014.
Ought to Guzan get a glance within the upcoming qualifiers? Tell us what you assume within the feedback part.
Blake Thomsen is a contract author and ASN contributor. All statistics courtesy of Opta.
