Ghana and Germany placed on an incredible present Saturday afternoon, however their 2-2 tie throws Group G right into a state of chaos. Fortunately, ASN’s Blake Thomsen is right here to stroll you thru the numerous eventualities.
BY
Blake Thomsen
Posted
June 21, 2014
10:19 PM
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GERMANY AND GHANA delivered probably the most entertaining video games of probably the most entertaining World Cups on Saturday afternoon in Fortaleza. After Mario Gotze opened the scoring early within the second half, Ghana hit again by Andre Ayew and Asamoah Gyan earlier than Miroslav Klose equalized within the 71st minute. Regardless of quite a few possibilities for either side within the final 20 minutes, neither group was capable of finding a winner and the match ended 2-2.
Together with offering appreciable thrills and chills, the match additionally carried huge significance for the U.S. forward of its showdown with Portugal. Here is what the Ghana-Germany thriller means for the U.S.
1. The Yanks’ win over Ghana was large
Given Ghana’s glorious displaying towards Germany, the U.S.’s win now appears much more spectacular than it did on Monday. Ghana is an excellent group, and the U.S. carried out extremely nicely to return away with three factors. Some could also be tempted to say Ghana merely “played poorly” towards the U.S., however doing so would wrongly discredit the Yanks’ sound tactical plan. Ghana is great within the open discipline—because it proved towards Germany—and the U.S. deserves immense credit score for shutting down Ghana’s counters and staying compact sufficient to ensure Ghana didn’t have house within the remaining third.
2. Germany has some severe weaknesses
Portugal performed proper into Germany’s fingers by carrying little menace on the counter and having a participant despatched off within the first half. The 4-0 rating line made Germany seem like World Cup favorites, however Ghana introduced Germany again to earth by revealing a number of the Germans’ deficiencies. The German assault nonetheless seemed sturdy, however questions should be requested about its protection. Germany leaves ample house on the counter, as Ghana repeatedly confirmed, greatest seen in Gyan’s high quality counterattacking purpose. Additionally, Germany performs a really excessive line for a group that has a gradual again 4 (all 4 of at this time’s starters are middle backs by commerce). Joachim Low seemed to deal with this downside by bringing on extra pure fullback Shkodran Mustafi at half, however he was out-jumped on Ghana’s first purpose, leaving Low with an attention-grabbing conundrum.
All of that is merely to say that Germany isn’t invincible—clearly—and its questionable protection is the first cause why.
3. The U.S. controls its future
Extremely, when Ghana was main 2-1 with simply 20 minutes to go, there was a practical situation that would have seen the U.S. eradicated within the group stage even with a win over Portugal. If the purpose differential went towards the U.S., a Ghana win over Portugal and a U.S. loss to Germany on June 26 would have seen the U.S. heading dwelling early.
Klose’s equalizer, nevertheless, signifies that the U.S. goes into the Portugal sport with a easy equation in thoughts—win, and also you’re in.
4. Group G can have a loopy end
Had Germany gained, Ghana would have been successfully eradicated, leaving the U.S., Portugal, and Germany to struggle it out for the 2 qualification locations. Now, all 4 groups are nonetheless very a lot alive. Let’s take a look at the potential eventualities from a U.S. perspective, with hypotheticals thought of for every attainable U.S. outcome towards Portugal. OK, let’s get to the eventualities forward of Sunday’s match.
If the U.S. beats Portugal…
The Yanks are into the knockout stage, needing only a draw towards Germany to win the group. A loss to Germany would depart the U.S. in second place. Whether or not meaning a date with Belgium or anyone else stays to be seen on this oh-so-wacky 2014 World Cup.
If the U.S. ties Portugal…
Now issues begin to get attention-grabbing. A draw would depart the U.S. with 4 factors and a +1 purpose differential. The Yanks can be tied on factors with Germany however behind on purpose differential. The Individuals would nonetheless be forward of Portugal—one level, -4 purpose differential—and Ghana—one level, -1 purpose differential.
That may arrange some severe drama on June 26, the ultimate day of the group. We’ll run by the U.S. win/loss/draw eventualities (assuming a draw towards Portugal).
If the U.S. beats Germany: The U.S. is thru as group winners.
If the U.S. attracts Germany: The U.S. is thru because the second-place group, with Germany profitable the group on purpose differential.
If the U.S. loses to Germany: Right here’s the place the entire eventualities come into play. If the U.S. loses by one purpose, Ghana would solely have to beat Portugal by one to tie the U.S. on purpose differential. Then it will come all the way down to targets scored, which we gained’t speculate on right here, although Ghana’s 2-2 draw towards Germany was way more useful than a 0-0. (Equally, a 5-5 U.S. draw with Portugal can be far preferable than a 0-0, and many others). Nonetheless assuming a U.S. loss by one, Portugal would want to win by 4 to match the U.S., after which targets scored would once more be the tiebreaker.
Additionally: If the U.S. loses to Germany by two or extra, a Ghana win of any rating line would see the Black Stars progress because the second-place group. Assuming the U.S. misplaced by precisely two, Portugal can be a little bit nearer, and would want to win by three to progress. That situation continues all the best way till a U.S. loss by 4. If the U.S. loses by three, Portugal must win by two. If the U.S. loses by 4 or extra, Portugal simply wants any win.
If the U.S. loses to Portugal…
This brings on extra insanity. We’ll now run by the U.S. win/loss/draw eventualities assuming a loss towards Portugal.
If the U.S. beats Germany: The U.S. nonetheless progress as group winners, except Portugal catches the Yanks on purpose differential with a win over Ghana. This might be extra possible if Portugal beats the U.S. by two or extra. At worst, although, the U.S. is assured development with a win towards Germany.
If the U.S. attracts Germany: Contemplating we don’t know what the U.S.’s dropping rating to Portugal can be, we gained’t run by the entire purpose differential eventualities, however we are able to infer just a few issues. A win for Ghana would possible see the Black Stars by on purpose differential. A Portugal win would see them by as group winners. A draw between Ghana and Portugal would depart the U.S. tied with Portugal and presumably by on purpose differential. My mind hurts. Does yours?
If the U.S. loses to Germany: The U.S. might be robotically eradicated (Ghana will enter with one level and Portugal with three when the 2 groups sq. off on June 26, so one group must depart the sport with 4 or extra factors).
That’s rather a lot to maintain up with, but it surely’s value contemplating prematurely of the U.S.’s sport towards Portugal. In fact, the U.S. can preserve issues fairly easy with a win over Portugal. A draw would depart the Yanks in good condition, however Ghana’s draw towards Germany was not splendid because it saved Ghana alive and sporting a purpose differential of simply -1.
How does all of this make you are feeling concerning the U.S.’s qualification possibilities? Ought to the U.S. strategy the Portugal sport in search of only a draw, or does it have to go in any case three factors? Tell us within the feedback part, and please resist the urge to name all of this hypothesis meaningless. It is the World Cup, dammit!
Blake Thomsen is an ASN contributing editor. Observe him on Twitter and rattle his cage there or within the Feedback right here.
