Security blankets are a quarterback’s finest good friend on third down. The go-to man who can seize a troublesome bucket in visitors and nonetheless preserve the chains shifting. For the final three years Baker Mayfield has evenly regarded to each of his prime two receivers in these conditions. Regardless of each lacking time resulting from harm, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin Jr. are practically tied for the staff lead in third down targets at 86 and 85, respectively. The 2 of them accounted for 40% of such targets since 2023.
And the Bucs’ offensive success in these conditions was spectacular. Godwin caught 68.2% of his third down targets, whereas averaging 8.53 yards per goal and choosing up a primary down or landing 60% of the time. He was as near automated because the modern-day NFL will get.
In the meantime, Evans caught fewer passes (48.8%) however for extra yards per catch. Nonetheless his success charge was sturdy by NFL requirements at 44.2%, which means that when he did catch a 3rd down goal, it nearly at all times went for a primary down.
However with Evans gone and Godwin over 30 and coming off of a number of seasons price of accidents, Mayfield may have to seek out new go-to targets on cash downs. There are two probably candidates to switch the dynamic duo. One is familiar-ish, whereas the opposite is a newcomer. However the regarding half is that they haven’t been practically as profitable as Evans and Godwin on these essential targets.
Emeka Egbuka
Egbuka was Baker Mayfield’s favourite goal in 2025. That held true in third down conditions the place Egbuka earned 25% of all third down targets for the season. However the success of the Bucs offense on these targets was not the constant engine one would hope. Egbuka solely caught 13 of his 34 third down targets for 232 yards, averaging 6.82 yards goal whereas securing the primary down or landing on 29% of his targets.
As a 2025 first spherical decide, Egbuka is the odds-on favourite to be Baker Mayfield’s #1 possibility going ahead. In an effort to supplant himself in that position he’s going to need to turn into a extra automated possibility in these conditions. The long-term plan for Tampa Bay needs to be that he takes over for Godwin because the slot/possibility route runner who maintains a excessive catch charge on third downs, holding the offense on time and chugging alongside.
The Bucs have Godwin for 2026 whereas Egbuka continues to enhance on this space.
Bucs WR Emeka Egbuka – Picture by: Cliff Welch P/R
Kenneth Gainwell
Gainwell was a safety blanket for Aaron Rodgers final yr, incomes targets on 24% of his third down makes an attempt. However a lot of these makes an attempt had been test downs exterior of the true play development or dump offs on third and endlessly. Gainwell caught 75% of his targets, however for simply 144 yards. The Steelers wanted a mean of 8.3 yards on these targets, however Gainwell’s common acquire…effectively…(sorry I couldn’t assist myself) it got here to simply 4.5 yards. As such, the Steelers success charge (how usually they picked up a primary down or landing) on these performs was simply 22%.
Bucs RB Kenneth Gainwell – Picture by: IMAGN Photographs – Barry Reeger
A part of the Bucs’ prolific success in 2024 was their unbelievable success charge on third down. Because the playmaker room evolves, they should substitute the consistency that Godwin and Evans have offered over the previous few seasons. There’s a probability Godwin can easy that transition with improved well being and a return to type. However Gainwell and Egbuka are a greater guess for the close to future. They usually might want to stage as much as get the offense again on monitor.
