Bucs at Chargers: Pewter Predictions For Week 15

BUCS at CHARGERS

WHEN: Sunday, December 15, 2024 | WHERE: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, CA) | KICKOFF: 4:25 p.m. ET | TV: FOX

Recreation day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report workers to make its weekly recreation predictions and provide up our recreation preview of this week’s matchup. Tell us what you suppose within the article feedback part and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds:

Bucs OC Liam Coen and QB Baker Mayfield – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR

I’m involved that the Bucs protection hasn’t been fastened during the last three video games when the unit has surrendered a league-low 14.3 factors per recreation, however slightly the problems on Todd Bowles’ unit have been merely masked by enjoying in opposition to lesser offenses. Holding the Giants, Panthers and Raiders – three of the worst groups within the league – to simply 43 complete factors is spectacular, but anticipated, proper? I simply don’t belief the protection, particularly with Tampa Bay going through an elite quarterback like Justin Herbert, who has a giant arm and has solely thrown one interception in opposition to 14 touchdowns this yr.

But I do trust in Liam Coen’s offense placing up extra 20 factors or extra in Los Angeles in opposition to the league’s high scoring protection, which permits a median of 15.9 factors per recreation. The Bucs have solely scored lower than 20 factors simply as soon as this season – in a 26-7 Week 3 loss to Denver. Baker Mayfield must cease turning the ball over after throwing two picks in every of the final two video games to ensure that the group to have an opportunity to tug off a West Coast upset.

The Chargers have an awesome crimson zone protection and power opponents to kick discipline targets slightly than rating touchdowns. That, mixed with a plus-11 turnover margin, which is third-best within the league, provides Los Angeles a determined benefit over Tampa Bay, which is minus-2 within the turnover margin. And will this recreation come right down to discipline targets like I feel it is going to, Cameron Dicker is connecting at a 93% charge, which rivals what Chase McLaughlin has achieved kicking for the Bucs this yr. Sadly the Bucs’ successful streak stops at three video games with an in depth Week 15 loss to the Chargers.

REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Chargers 26, Bucs 23REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 9-4

Matt Matera: Bucs Win In Unordinary Method
Bucs Rt Tristan Wirfs

Bucs RT Tristan Wirfs and RB Rachaad White – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR

This matchup between the Bucs and Chargers comes right down to which group will get to manage the tempo of play and enter their type of offense and protection. The Bucs need to win with their offense getting out to a giant lead, counting on their offense as they common 28 factors per recreation. The Chargers, alternatively, have solely allowed greater than 20 factors twice this season. They need to shield the soccer and get right into a rock combat with the opponent, seeking to win with operating the ball and physicality.

What’s nice about this iteration of the Bucs is that they’ll win in several methods. With a future Corridor of Famer in Mike Evans, it’s simple to lean on him with the passing recreation because the Bucs have achieved earlier than. However the staple of Tampa Bay’s offense this yr has been the operating recreation. It’ll be more durable if Bucky Irving doesn’t play, however they’re nonetheless succesful with Rachaad White and Sean Tucker. I feel the Chargers will orchestrate their type of recreation with floor and pound, however Tampa Bay not solely matches that however does it higher. An important issue of all of it isn’t any turnovers by Baker Mayfield. Be aggressive, however not too excessive.

One other factor that’ll assist the Bucs is that their largest weak point is move protection and stopping the tight ends. They need to welcome anytime the Chargers need to run it in order to not exploit what they do the worst. Los Angeles is banged up with their talent place gamers. We’ll see if tight finish Will Dissly or huge receiver Ladd McConkey can go, however this may simply be the week the place move protection isn’t the most important challenge. One thing flukey might occur on this recreation. Perhaps a uncommon turnover by Justin Herbert or a blocked punt. It gained’t be the prettiest of video games, however one the place the Bucs proceed their successful streak.

MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 22, Chargers 19MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 8-5

Bailey Adams: Bucs Move Their Largest Remaining Common Season Check
Bucs Qb Baker Mayfield

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Picture by: USA At the moment

There’s little doubt that that is the Bucs’ largest check left within the 2024 common season. They arrive in at 7-6 and with their remaining video games coming in opposition to two five-win groups (the Cowboys and Saints) and a three-win group (the Panthers), a victory over the 8-5 Chargers would go a great distance of their quest for an NFC South title four-peat. It will additionally function one thing of a press release win, as it will show that Tampa Bay isn’t solely feasting on a weaker schedule down the stretch. However can they move this check and make that assertion?

I feel so. I’m trusting the Bucs’ fifth-ranked scoring offense (27.9 PPG) to discover a means in opposition to the Chargers’ top-ranked scoring protection (15.9 PPG allowed). Baker Mayfield has to play a clear recreation, and Mike Evans has to indicate up in a giant means and hopefully discover the tip zone. However maybe what’s much more urgent is the necessity for the Tampa Bay offensive line to say itself and out-physical a really robust and gritty Chargers protection. Doing so would assist the Buccaneers run recreation keep scorching and management the move of this recreation.

The Los Angeles protection has solely allowed greater than 21 factors twice this season, giving up 27 to Joe Burrow and the Bengals and 30 to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. So, I’m placing a whole lot of religion in Mayfield and the Bucs by predicting them to attain 24. On the similar time, I feel I’m placing a whole lot of religion (an excessive amount of?) in Todd Bowles’ protection to carry Justin Herbert and the Chargers underneath 24. Not that L.A. is scoring at a excessive clip, in fact. It’s simply that this can be a banged-up protection that has been suspect even within the uncommon instances when it has been wholesome this season. And I don’t actually belief this group anymore. Ah, nonetheless. The Bucs win a fourth straight by toughing one out on the West Coast. Why not?

ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 24, Chargers 20ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 9-4

Josh Queipo: Bucs Win Canine Struggle In Final-Minute Style But Once more
Bucs Cb Jamel Dean - Photo By: Cliff Welch P/R

Bucs CB Jamel Dean – Picture by: Cliff Welch P/R

Tampa Bay’s protection has a plethora of accidents however ought to nonetheless have the three most vital items to stopping a Chargers receiving corps that isn’t superb behind a dinged-up Ladd McConkey. Jamel Dean, Zyon McCollum and Tykee Smith all look to be wholesome to assist negate Los Angeles’ passing assault. And after some constructive man-to-man reps in Week 14 I wouldn’t be stunned if Todd Bowles dialed up extra Cowl 1 to problem Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnston to win in opposition to large bodily corners.

Now about that stout Chargers protection. They’re a Prime 10 unit that may possible give the Bucs points. However don’t depend out Tampa Bay’s capability to attain. The Bucs have confronted 4 of the highest 11 defenses, as measured by EPA/play, within the NFL. In these video games they’ve averaged 20 factors per recreation. Take out the Broncos, who play a totally completely different type of protection than the Chargers and that common jumps to 24.33. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen has been cooking all season, and the run recreation is at its peak. I anticipate a bounce-back recreation from quarterback Baker Mayfield and the Bucs to safe a top quality win late within the season.

QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 24, Chargers 19QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 8-5

Adam Slivon: Bucs Lack The Jolt To Win In Los Angeles
Chargers Qb Justin Herbert And Hc Jim Harbaugh

Chargers QB Justin Herbert and HC Jim Harbaugh – Picture by: USA At the moment

Sunday’s recreation marks the most important remaining check for the Bucs this season. Coming off the bye week, Tampa Bay defeated the Giants, Panthers, and Raiders. Because it stands, these three group’s mixed information are simply 7-32. Even coming off an in depth, 19-17 loss to the Chiefs, the Chargers stand at 8-5 and can be seeking to play their type of soccer again house. It’s a mode of soccer that has fashioned underneath Jim Harbaugh throughout his first season on the helm. The Chargers’ id has advanced to being a group that doesn’t put factors up a whole lot of factors to defeat opponents; slightly, they win video games by outmatching groups bodily on offense and protection.

Co-defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers mentioned it greatest this week when discussing how the Chargers’ offense operates, saying that it poses “a multitude of challenges” for the Bucs’ protection. The unit has performed higher in current weeks in opposition to groups which have struggled offensively, however that may change when going through Justin Herbert. Though Herbert doesn’t have to be the gunslinger, he has develop into a extremely environment friendly quarterback operating the present whereas nonetheless possessing the bodily traits that hold defenses sincere. What works in Tampa Bay’s favor is that Herbert, Gus Edwards, Ladd McConkey, and Will Dissly are all battling accidents. Already lacking J.Okay. Dobbins and missing huge receivers, Todd Bowles might have a plan to cease Los Angeles’ remaining weapons.

The Bucs’ personal offense has been high-flying, however they face the league’s stingiest scoring protection with expertise on all three ranges. With Bucky Irving but to observe this week and sure out of motion, that places extra on Rachaad White’s shoulders. Baker Mayfield can have his palms full shopping for time and discovering holes in a protection with 39 sacks and 17 takeaways, and his capability to not flip the ball over would be the deciding issue. All season, I predicted the group would fall brief and lose this recreation down the stretch. I see this matchup being extra at the same time as of late, however the Chargers have the protection to maintain this low-scoring whereas the Bucs’ protection is simply too under-manned to anticipate the identical.

SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Chargers 20, Bucs 17SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 9-4