QUESTION: On a scale of 1-10 the place is Todd Bowles at on the new seat scale?
ANSWER: As former Tremendous Bowl-winning NFL head coach Invoice Parcells famously stated, “You are what your record says you are.” And proper now Todd Bowles is 35-33 as Tampa Bay’s head coach. That’s simply two wins above .500. Bowles has had a 9-8 season in 2023 and a 10-7 season in 2024 sandwiched between a pair of 8-9 information in 2022 and 2025. Whereas he has received three straight division championships from 2022-24, Bowles is simply 1-3 within the postseason in Tampa Bay.
The NFL is a “what have you done for me lately?” league. Bowles’ most up-to-date report is that 8-9 mark from a yr in the past when the Bucs misplaced their grip on the NFC South. After a sizzling 6-2 begin, the Bucs went 2-7 down the stretch following the bye week. Accidents actually performed a job within the disappointing season, however have been the Bucs as banged up because the 49ers, who managed to complete 12-5 regardless of a myriad of accidents in San Francisco?
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Bowles is known for getting the Buccaneers off to improbable begins. He’s gone 2-0 to begin the season in every of his 4 years because the group’s head coach, which is sort of a outstanding feat. Tampa Bay even began off 3-0 final yr and have been 5-1 at one level.
So if Bowles doesn’t mimic that begin in 2026 and rating wins at Cincinnati and at residence in opposition to Cleveland within the first two weeks of the season I feel there shall be some severe alarm bells going off. Going 0-2 in what appears like winnable video games would imply that the Bucs can be 2-9 over their final 11 video games courting again to the 2025 season.
Even when Tampa Bay is 0-1 heading into the house opener versus Cleveland, the Bucs can be coming into their three-game residence stand that additionally consists of residence video games in opposition to Minnesota and Inexperienced Bay – each of which could possibly be thought of winnable. I feel Bowles wants to begin no worse than 4-1 to quickly get off the new seat and put final yr’s 2-7 end within the rear view mirror.
From there he must keep away from the three-game or four-game dropping streaks which have held the group again from having an elite report in prior seasons. And I imagine he must get to no less than 10 wins in 2026, and sure a playoff look, to actually save his job. Both that or win 9 video games and make a really deep playoff run into January.
QUESTION: If this group finally ends up wherever within the 6-9 win vary, do you suppose the Bucs ought to transfer on from Todd Bowles – playoffs or not?
ANSWER: This can be a very robust query to reply given the vary of wins that you simply suggest. If Tampa Bay wins simply six or seven video games that implies that the group has continued to take a step again with Todd Bowles after an eight-win dropping season in 2025. Traditionally, the Glazers have by no means allowed a head coach who had back-to-back dropping seasons to remain on board the Bucs’ ship.
I feel the Buccaneers have to point out progress underneath Bowles in 2026. So even one other 8-9 report – playoffs or not – in all probability would put Bowles’ job safety in peril heading into 2027 except the group wins the division with a dropping report and makes a deep postseason run. I feel Bowles must no less than get to 9 wins coupled with a playoff look – ideally successful the NFC South – in 2026 to maintain his job.
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
For elevated job safety, I feel Bowles must get again to double-digit wins, and which means no less than a 10-7 report in 2026 just like the group achieved throughout the 2024 marketing campaign as a result of the expectation heading into final yr was that the group would proceed to ascend. And that meant attending to 11 wins or extra, and/or making it deeper into the playoffs.
And after seeing the Glazers transfer on from the 2 winningest head coaches in franchise historical past in Tony Dungy and Jon Gruden – each of whom have been fired after nine-win seasons – I get the sensation that Bowles must make it out of the primary spherical of the playoffs. Bowles has a 1-3 report within the postseason in Tampa Bay with residence losses within the Wild Card spherical to Dallas in 2022 and to Washington in 2024. One other first-round exit following yet another residence playoff loss would possibly take a look at the Glazers’ persistence.
The last word purpose is to win a Tremendous Bowl, and that solely occurs with success within the postseason. If Bowles fails to point out he can win within the playoffs, particularly at residence, the Glazers will finally develop pissed off and transfer on – moderately than be caught on a plateau. After all it additionally issues how properly the protection – Bowles’ facet of the ball – is taking part in, and the way profitable new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson was in his debut with Tampa Bay. There shall be lots of elements to think about in terms of Bowles’ future with the Bucs past 2026.
QUESTION: I wish to know what this new offensive scheme will appear like for the offensive line. Will there be extra horizontal motion with blocking and scheming? Will the offense have extra pre-snap motion? As soccer followers, we are able to all see that pre-snap motion essential.
ANSWER: The reply to your query is sure and sure – primarily based upon what we’ve seen to this point in OTAs and the necessary mini-camp. New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson does need to diversify the group’s operating recreation by incorporating extra zone-based runs, together with huge zone, which Tampa Bay didn’t fairly grasp underneath former play-caller Liam Coen.
The Bucs offensive line is extremely adept at man blocking, or hole scheme as it’s identified. Tampa Bay has nearly perfected the artwork of duo blocks, which is 2 double-team blocks occurring concurrently. It’s mainly an influence run block with out a pulling guard.
Bucs C Graham Barton and the O-line – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
However although the Bucs are fairly good at hole blocking and duo blocks, former offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard leaned on this an excessive amount of final yr to the purpose the place it turned predictable and the effectiveness was nullified in consequence. I feel Grizzard was considerably restricted to hole blocking as a result of he was typically taking part in Mike Jordan and Dan Feeney, a pair of observe squaders, at guard final yr as a consequence of damage.
Robinson needs to eradicate the predictability and provide up a wholesome mixture of each energy man and zone blocking performs within the recreation plan to maintain opponents guessing. The Bucs have the athletes alongside the road of scrimmage to drag off huge zone blocks, that are runs the place the O-line strikes laterally in live performance to both enable operating backs to get to the sting and switch the nook for an enormous achieve, or use their imaginative and prescient to discover a cutback lane and exploit it for an enormous run as an alternative.
I additionally anticipate Robinson to include lots of counters and pin-and-pull runs to essentially combine it up and make Tampa Bay’s run recreation fairly deadly. And sure, there shall be loads of movement and pre-snap motion in Robinson’s offense. We’ve seen loads of movement and at occasions double movement throughout the offseason. And likewise no pistol formation, both. Baker Mayfield has both been in shotgun or underneath heart.
QUESTION: Hypothetically, take this present roster and put them on the bye week of the 2025 season the place the Bucs are 6-2. How does the season find yourself? Do they get 12 wins and make it to the NFC Championship Recreation?
ANSWER: This can be a nice hypothetical query, and I usually like hypotheticals as a result of it promotes thought and there’s really no improper reply. Let’s begin with the premise that I imagine that Tampa Bay’s 2026 roster is considerably higher than final yr’s group. And even Tremendous Bowl-winning head coach Bruce Arians, who was a latest visitor on the Pewter Report Podcast, believes that too.
On paper it seems to be just like the expertise has been upgraded essentially the most on protection, and that’s as a result of the protection had a methods to go to get from unhealthy to hopefully good. However let’s not overlook that the offense, which was ravaged with accidents final yr, fell an entire landing in level manufacturing from a yr in the past. Tampa Bay averaged 29 factors per recreation in 2024 and that scoring manufacturing dropped dramatically to 22 factors per recreation. The hope is that the offense shall be way more productive with Zac Robinson calling the performs this season.
Bucs OLBs Rueben Bain and Al-Quadin Muhammad – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
On the finish of the day it was no shock that the Bucs went 8-9 and had a dropping report as a result of the offense was scoring 22 factors per recreation and the protection wound up giving up 24 factors per recreation. So let’s say that the offense’s scoring common improves to 27 factors per recreation this yr and the protection’s scoring common improves to 21 factors per recreation with all the new additions.
So let’s venture the outcomes of the ultimate 9 video games of the 2025 season utilizing these numbers, beginning with the development on offense.
Week 10 – Bucs vs. Patriots – 28-23 – L / 27 factors per recreation nonetheless ends in a lossWeek 11 – Bucs at Payments – 44-32 – L / 27 factors per recreation nonetheless ends in a lossWeek 12 – Bucs at Rams – 34-7 – L / 27 factors per recreation nonetheless ends in a lossWeek 13 – Bucs vs. Cardinals – 20-17 – W / 27 factors per recreation nonetheless ends in a winWeek 14 – Bucs vs. Saints – 24-20 – L / 27 factors per recreation ends in a win Week 15 – Bucs vs. Falcons – 29-28 – L / 27 factors per recreation nonetheless ends in a lossWeek 16 – Bucs at Panthers – 23-20 – L / 27 factors per recreation ends in a win Week 17 – Bucs at Dolphins – 20-17 – L / 27 factors per recreation ends in a win Week 18 – Bucs vs. Panthers – 16-14 – W/ 27 factors per recreation nonetheless ends in a win
So the result with an offense that scores 27 factors per recreation final yr would have resulted in three extra victories down the stretch, pushing Tampa Bay’s win complete from eight to 11 throughout the 2025 season. The Bucs would have hosted a house Wild Card recreation.
Now let’s venture the outcomes of the ultimate 9 video games of the 2025 season utilizing these numbers, ending with the development on protection.
Week 10 – Bucs vs. Patriots – 28-23 – L / 21 factors per recreation allowed ends in a win Week 11 – Bucs at Payments – 44-32 – L / 21 factors per recreation allowed ends in a win Week 12 – Bucs at Rams – 34-7 – L / 21 factors per recreation allowed nonetheless ends in a lossWeek 13 – Bucs vs. Cardinals – 20-17 – W / 21 factors per recreation allowed ends in a loss Week 14 – Bucs vs. Saints – 24-20 – L / 21 factors per recreation allowed nonetheless ends in a lossWeek 15 – Bucs vs. Falcons – 29-28 – L / 21 factors per recreation allowed ends in a win Week 16 – Bucs at Panthers – 23-20 – L / 21 factors per recreation allowed nonetheless ends in a lossWeek 17 – Bucs at Dolphins – 20-17 – L / 21 factors per recreation allowed nonetheless ends in a lossWeek 18 – Bucs vs. Panthers – 16-14 – W/ 21 factors per recreation allowed ends in a loss
So taking part in higher protection alone and permitting simply 21 factors per recreation impacts the result of 5 video games, flipping the outcomes that lead to three extra wins and two extra losses. The online impact is a 9-8 report in 2025 as an alternative of an 8-9 report. Higher protection alone with none enchancment on offense would enable the Bucs to win the division and host a house Wild Card playoff recreation.
