Bucs vs. Commanders: Pewter Predictions For Wild Card Spherical

BUCS vs. COMMANDERS

WHEN: Sunday, January 12, 2025 | WHERE: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, FL) | KICKOFF: 8:15 p.m. ET | TV: NBC

PLAY-BY-PLAY: Mike Tirico | ANALYST: Cris Collinsworth | SIDELINE: Melissa StarkRADIO: 98 ROCK 97.9 FM | PLAY-BY-PLAY: Gene Deckerhoff | ANALYST: Dave Moore | SIDELINE: T.J. Rives

Sport day is approaching, and it’s time for the Pewter Report employees to make its weekly recreation predictions and supply up our recreation preview of this week’s matchup. Tell us what you assume within the article feedback part and add your prediction, too.

Scott Reynolds: Skilled Bucs Overcome Upstart Commanders

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Picture by: USA Immediately

The Bucs have hosted a Wild Card playoff recreation in every of the final 4 years and have been within the playoffs in every of the final 5 years. That have ought to assistance on Sunday night time when Tampa Bay hosts Washington. This jogs my memory of when Tom Brady and the 13-4 Bucs beat the 9-8 Eagles within the 2021 Wild Card recreation. Philly received 14 video games the following yr earlier than shedding to Kansas Metropolis within the Tremendous Bowl.

The Commanders have made an incredible turnaround in Dan Quinn’s first yr as head coach, however his crew simply lacks playoff expertise. Washington’s final playoff recreation got here in 2020 at 7-9 when the crew hosted Tampa Bay in a Wild Card recreation and misplaced. Not many gamers The Bucs even have the expertise of beating the Commanders in Week 1, 37-20.

Each groups have gotten higher since then and have the No. 4 (Bucs at 29.5 ppg) and No. 5 (Commanders at 28.5 ppg) scoring offenses within the league. However Tampa Bay’s protection has been stellar down the stretch, permitting simply 17 factors per recreation because the bye in Week 11. The Bucs have gone 6-1 over that span and have solely allowed a median of three.3 factors per recreation within the second half of the final seven video games. The Commanders have received a couple of video games within the final minute, however the Bucs protection needs to be prepared and trying to blitz Jayden Daniels much more than it did in Week 1.

Baker Mayfield received snubbed for the Professional Bowl by Daniels regardless of throwing 41 touchdowns to Daniels’ 25. He’ll have an additional massive chip on his shoulder for this one. If he can replicate final yr’s Wild Card efficiency through which he threw for 3 touchdowns – or his season-opening salvo of 4 TDs vs. the Commanders – the Bucs ought to rating 30 or extra factors once more. Bucky Irving must also run wild towards the league’s No. 30 dashing protection. Tampa Bay is 3-0 when he rushes for 100 yards or extra, and is 6-0 when he hits not less than 80.

REYNOLDS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 31, Commanders 26REYNOLDS’ SEASON RECORD: 10-7

Matt Matera: Bucs Win In Shut Contest

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR

It’ll be enjoyable that it is a matchup between two groups that kicked the season off towards one another, so the Bucs and Commanders are a lot completely different groups than after they met months in the past. That doesn’t imply that the high-scoring moments will likely be few and much between. This recreation is usually a shootout, simply used differently. 

Through the first recreation, Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield balled out with 289 passing yards and 4 touchdowns as Tampa Bay scored 37 factors. This time round, although, the Bucs will take benefit within the floor recreation, leaning on Bucky Irving as they exploit the weak point of the Commander’s potential to cease the run.

And naturally, we get the at all times thrilling matchup of Mike Evans towards Marshon Lattimore. I’m positive offensive coordinator Liam Coen will get Evans getting into a number of methods.

MATERA’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 33, Commanders 31MATERA’S SEASON RECORD: 11-6

Bailey Adams: Bucs Do Simply Sufficient To Maintain Off Commanders

Bucs RB Bucky Irving – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR

In truth, I used to be going forwards and backwards on this matchup all week. I believe it is a uncommon case the place the Bucs like that they ended up drawing the Commanders, and the Commanders like that they ended up drawing the Bucs. Each groups have to like their probabilities on this one, and I believe it’ll be an in depth contest.

These are two of the very best offenses within the NFL, and each groups have defenses that may be loads shaky. That might result in a high-scoring recreation. In truth, I believe it can. However I believe Tampa Bay prevails ultimately.

Offensively, it’s exhausting to place one in every of these models too far above the opposite. However I believe the place I’ll give the Bucs the sting is with their run recreation. Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels is harmful along with his arm and legs, however I don’t like Washington’s probabilities to muster up a lot of a dashing assault towards this Tampa Bay protection, not less than outdoors of what Daniels can do when he escapes the pocket.

On the flip aspect, I believe Liam Coen’s offense will be capable to strike a terrific steadiness between the go recreation and run recreation. Baker Mayfield is taking part in nice soccer proper now, and the duo of Bucky Irving and Rachaad White ought to have a discipline day towards the Commanders’ Thirtieth-ranked run protection. As exhausting as it’s to name which of those offenses will convey extra to the desk on Sunday night time, it could be the identical conundrum with the defenses.

However, for all of the faults of the Tampa Bay protection, there’s one thing telling me that Todd Bowles will pull out one other masterful gameplan come Sunday night time like he did within the crew’s 32-9 win over Philadelphia in final yr’s Wild Card recreation at Raymond James Stadium. It could not result in the Commanders solely scoring 9 factors, however I believe the protection does simply sufficient to assist out the Bucs offense and hold this season going. Oh, and don’t be shocked if Chase McLaughlin’s leg finally ends up making a distinction on this one.

ADAMS’ GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 34, Commanders 28ADAMS’ SEASON RECORD: 12-5

Josh Queipo: Bucs Win And Return To Divisional Spherical

Bucs HC Todd Bowles, OC Liam Coen – Picture by: Cliff Welch P/R

Full disclosure. Whereas my prediction seems above Adam Slivon’s, I used to be the final to enter my prediction. And it’s killing me to agree with ALL of my colleagues and make this a clear sweep of us predicting the Bucs will win. However that’s really what I believe will occur.

The Bucs have a greater level differential than the Commanders this season at +117 to +94. The Bucs are 7-2 in video games determined by a couple of rating. The Commanders have an identical win share however have been in simply 5 such contests this yr, exhibiting they battle to essentially put groups away.

The place Washington has excelled is in a single rating video games, the place they’re 8-4 on the yr. However historical past has proven these forms of groups have a tendency to come back again to the imply over time – the 2022 Vikings come to thoughts. The Bucs maintain the benefit within the trenches on either side of the ball. And that needs to be what decides this recreation.

There has not been a secondary that Liam Coen hasn’t been in a position to scheme open his playmakers towards, and Marshon Lattimore be damned, I don’t see that beginning this week. Baker Mayfield has leveled up in current weeks, and an underreported facet of his recreation has been the truth that he has been a rattling good playoff quarterback thus far, albeit in a small pattern measurement. The query comes all the way down to the protection and I believe that Todd Bowles’ blitz-heavy method will do sufficient to get a few key stops to permit the Bucs to win this by greater than most individuals assume.

QUEIPO’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 27, Commanders 19QUEIPO’S SEASON RECORD: 10-7

Adam Slivon: Bucs’ Offense Does Sufficient To Beat Commanders And Advance

Bucs security Antoine Winfield Jr. – Picture by: USA Immediately

On paper, the Bucs and Commanders match up fairly properly heading into Sunday night time’s Wild Card recreation. Tampa Bay has the fourth-scoring offense and Sixteenth-scoring protection within the NFL, whereas Washington ranks fifth and 18th in these classes, respectively. Whereas the house crew holds slight statistical benefits over their opponent, the offense – led by Baker Mayfield – really units them aside. Mayfield has proven all through the season that he can lead the Bucs to wins in a wide range of methods.

Whereas most will be credited to placing up a excessive quantity of factors on the board, he has been in a position to play with no matter weapons he has at his disposal. Anchored by an offensive line with first-team All-Professional Tristan Wirfs, it’s a stout entrance that buys him time and offers Bucky Irving ample house to make issues occur. Combining his success by way of the air with dealing with the Thirtieth-ranked dashing protection is a recipe to maintain the great instances going.

Bobby Wagner leads the Commanders protection, however it’s a unit that was uncovered again in Week 1, permitting 37 factors. Including cornerback Marshon Lattimore provides some intrigue, however till confirmed in any other case, offensive coordinator Liam Coen will get the advantage of the doubt.

There are some doubts about how Tampa Bay’s protection will fare dealing with a extra snug Jayden Daniels. Daniels is a dynamic menace on the bottom and thru the air, with a lot of his current manufacturing being a product of his elite effectivity in making every kind of throws. Stopping him is paramount, and getting Antoine Winfield Jr. and Jamel Dean again bodes properly in stopping Terry McLaurin from having an enormous day.

Lavonte David has a tall process of containing him within the pocket, coming residence on blitzes, and holding his personal towards Zach Ertz in a battle of 34-year-olds, however I believe “LVD” nonetheless has some fuel left within the tank. I predict an in depth, back-and-forth first half, however the crew’s playoff expertise paired with being led by an ignitor of a quarterback permits them to tug away late to a postseason victory at residence.

SLIVON’S GAME PREDICTION: Bucs 31, Commanders 27SLIVON’S SEASON RECORD: 11-6

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