Colts’ Week 16 QB Evaluation: much less passing, higher end result

Due to the nflFastR mission, Professional Soccer Focus and NFL NextGen Stats for the well timed sources of knowledge.

For these of you new to this, I’ll publish key QB stats every week judging how effectively the upcoming opponent QB has carried out. Sure, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling affect these numbers however they’re primarily QB measures. I’ll most likely modify the charts all through the season. Commentary might be temporary however be happy to let me know within the feedback that stats aren’t every little thing. (click on charts for bigger view)

A single sport is a sufficiently small pattern dimension, however when the QB has solely 14 dropbacks, it’s powerful to learn something into the numbers. In fact, I’ll achieve this anyway.

NOTE: None of those numbers embody designed QB runs. Its changing into clear, that to completely choose Anthony Richardson (and different QBs), I should fold in designed runs into my QB stats (as a lot as I hate to do this). I gained’t have time till the low season to make these modifications although.

HOW WELL?

6 constructive worth performs on 14 dropbacks is just not an awesome success price (42.9%), however flipping a kind of incompletions right into a completion would bump it as much as 50% which is fairly good. That’s too high quality a line to imply something.

The interception was fairly catastrophic EPA-wise, however Richardson made up for it on a few massive throws, so he leads to the constructive EPA territory (0.10 EPA/d).

He definitely bounced again from the three earlier video games, the place he posted under common numbers.

HOW FAR?

His completion price lastly improved, however considered one of them was a decide, so there’s that. He was throwing loads shorter this week and the completions led to variety of first downs (percentage-wise).

The general depth of goal was down from earlier weeks however his common completion depth was up.

TO WHO?

Regardless of the restricted variety of passes, they have been unfold round fairly effectively. Josh Downs supplied a lot of the YAC for the day without work of a few completions behind the road of scrimmage.

If you’re questioning why Mitchell isn’t within the subsequent graph, it’s as a result of the EPA worth on his sole catch was so excessive that he’s actually off the chart.

HOW ACCURATE?

Though AR’s 63.6% completion price places him within the common vary for QBs, his cpoe was nonetheless very low. However once more, flipping simply 1 of these incompletions would have given AR a 72.7% completion price and a constructive cpoe, so I’m not going to learn something into it.

HOW FAST?

He didn’t have sufficient makes an attempt to register a time to throw this week.

TO WHERE?

The interception torpedoed his general deep passing worth, however he was fairly profitable inside 10 yards.

DASHBOARD

(Use the right-left arrows to toggle between stats for the week and the season).

arsr,
edp,
opd,
sg%,
oz%,
pr%,
ttt,
adot,
ay/c,
cmp%,
cpoe,
yac,
yacoe,
ypa,
scr%,
ta%,
sck%,
aa%,
aay,
ny/d,
1st%,
td%,
to%,
epa/d,
psr

I’m going to breeze by means of this as a result of the pattern is simply too small this week to make comparisons to different QBs worthwhile.

The Colts run sport was nice, which is sweet as a result of the Colts have been third in % of runs on early downs this week (sixth arsr, thirtieth edp)
Richardson wasn’t pressured a lot, so though his deserted play price wasn’t very excessive, it was most likely too excessive given the stress (twenty fifth pr%, tenth aa%).
He had the very best yards per try on the week, pushed by the very best common YAC and that fed into the 2nd highest web yards per dropback.
He threw plenty of first downs and with solely 14 dropbacks, his 1 passing TD interprets to a really excessive TD%. Sadly, his 1 INT does as effectively (4th 1st%, seventh td%, third to%).

Though it solely ranks twentieth for the week, his EPA/d of +0.10 continues to be fairly good. He simply occurred to do it in every week, when plenty of different QBs did rather well.

Given the restricted dropbacks, it’s onerous to provide an goal judgement on his play. There was some good and a few dangerous and the great outweighed the dangerous. That’s as greatest as I can do.