Eagles-Rams playoff preview: 18 issues to observe in Sunday’s Divisional Spherical recreation

Sunday can’t get right here quickly sufficient.

I do know I’m not alone in being fairly fired as much as see the Philadelphia Eagles host the Los Angeles Rams at Lincoln Monetary Discipline this weekend.

Since we’ve bought time to kill, let’s run by way of among the extra necessary issues to be careful for this in Divisional Spherical playoff recreation.

1 – Saquon Barkley might be a scorching knife by way of butter

Is that this phrase sensible in any respect? Do individuals actually warmth knives for this objective? I don’t really feel like I’ve witnessed that.

Anyway, everyone knows Barkley completely dominated the Rams the final time these two groups performed in Week 12.

Barkley ran for 255 yards, setting a brand new single-game franchise document. He additionally caught 4 passes for 47 receiving yards to present him 302 whole yards from scrimmage, which can also be a single-game franchise document.

One would assume the Rams might be promoting out to cease Barkley. They really want to make anyone however him beat them.

That a lot is less complicated mentioned than finished, nevertheless, as a result of the Rams’ run protection isn’t good:

Solely six groups have allowed extra yards per rush try this season.
The Rams rank Twentieth in run protection EPA, Twentieth in run protection success fee, and twenty first in run protection DVOA.
The Rams have missed the seventh-most tackles within the league (hat tip ESP).
The Rams allowed the ninth-most yards earlier than contact per carry to working backs (1.2) whereas contacting RBs behind the road of scrimmage on simply 35.9% of rushes, the fourth-lowest mark within the league (per NFL Professional).

Associated to that final be aware, Eagles working backs have averaged a league-high 2.0 yards earlier than contact per carry this season, ensuing within the second-most yards per carry (5.3).

It’s not nearly Barkley being superior, which he clearly is. It’s additionally concerning the Eagles’ offensive line being fairly able to dominating the Rams’ defensive entrance.

2 – Is the Rams’ protection improved?

I feel it’s truthful to marvel if the Rams’ protection is healthier than the final time they performed the Eagles.

Since permitting the Birds to provide 37 factors and 314 speeding yards in Week 12, the Rams are permitting simply 15 factors per recreation and 100.5 speeding yards per recreation (excluding Week 18 when LA rested starters). The Rams rank tenth in defensive EPA per play and sixteenth in defensive success fee throughout that span.

Now, it’s additionally truthful to marvel how a lot the Rams’ defensive enchancment was associated to opponent high quality.

The first working backs the Rams confronted during the last six video games they tried to win:

Alvin Kamara (23 for 112 yards)
James Cook dinner (6 for 20) … Josh Allen was the Payments’ working recreation with 10 carries for 82 yards and three speeding TD
Isaac Guerendo (16 for 57 yards)
Breece Corridor (14 for 52 yards)
Michael Carter (13 for 70 yards)
Aaron Jones (13 for 48 yards) plus Cam Akers (5 for 39 yards)

Secure to say Barkley is considerably higher than these gamers. And the one from that group who comes closest to his expertise (Kamara) logged 4.8 yards per carry.

3 – Jalen Hurts ought to in all probability keep away from taking part in into the Rams’ largest defensive power

The Rams have a proficient line of defense; LA ranks tied for ninth in sacks per recreation.

Second-year defensive deal with Kobie Turner leads the staff with 10 sacks. Edge rusher Byron Younger (to not be confused with the Eagles defensive deal with with the identical identify) and rookie Braden Fiske every have 9. First-round decide Jared Verse has 4.5.

The Eagles restricted the Rams to only one sack and two QB hits within the final assembly. And that was with Hurts having a median time to throw of three.4 seconds, in response to Professional Soccer Focus. For perspective, Hurts had the longest common to time to throw in 2024 at 3.23 seconds.

Maybe the Eagles’ offensive line will maintain up as soon as once more and provides Hurts loads of clear pockets to work with. However giving the Rams’ go rush alternatives to get residence appears harmful. Sam Darnold simply confirmed us how that may go poorly … and that was with him averaging 3.15 seconds to throw.

After all, the Eagles have a greater go safety unit than the Vikings do; it’s arduous to think about the Birds might be giving up 9 sacks.

4 – Simply how good are the Rams?

We requested this query concerning the Packers final week. Thought it could be attention-grabbing to do an identical exercise with the Rams.

The Rams began 1-4 this season in no small half as a consequence of Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp being banged up. As soon as they had been each again after a Week 6 bye, the Rams went 9-2 previous to resting starters in Week 18. Then they beat the Vikings at a impartial web site within the Wild Card spherical.

Right here’s how the Rams rank in some key classes:

seventeenth in level differential
eleventh in DVOA
sixth in weighted DVOA, which accounts extra closely for current efficiency

Their document in opposition to groups that made the playoffs is 3-3.

Common factors scored in opposition to playoff groups: 26.7 factors

Common factors allowed to playoff groups: 26.3 factors

Via the lens of all the season, the Rams are ranked equally in high quality to the Atlanta Falcons, San Francisco 49ers, and Arizona Cardinals. These are three groups who completed beneath .500 and didn’t make the playoffs.

If we have a look at the pattern after the 1-4 begin, they’re nearer to the Vikings, Miami Dolphins, and Los Angeles Chargers. And worse than the Packers staff the Eagles beat by 12 factors final weekend.

The Rams’ win over the Payments exhibits their A-game is fairly good. However the chance of them replicating that sort of efficiency doesn’t appear excessive. They’re stable however not scary.

5 – Vic Fangio vs. Sean McVay

Final week, we referenced the August 2019 ESPN interview that options Matt LaFleur praising Fangio. Additionally from that article, this quote from the Rams’ head coach:

McVay: For us, I feel Fangio and the Bears did an impressive job of a sound scheme with versatility blended with nice gamers. And clearly what New England did down the stretch was spectacular. These are the 2 defenses that gave us essentially the most bother.

McVay is referencing the December 2018 recreation the place LA entered as three-point street favorites in Chicago and misplaced by 9. The Rams averaged 30.8 factors per recreation and 412.4 yards per recreation that season however Fangio’s protection restricted them to simply six factors and 214 yards. Fangio’s unit additionally produced two factors of their very own with a security.

Because the story goes, the Patriots replicated Fangio’s recreation plan in opposition to the Rams in Tremendous Bowl LIII. McVay’s offense was held to the bottom level whole (three) in Tremendous Bowl historical past and 260 yards.

Fangio and McVay met as main play-callers in opposition to one another for simply the second time earlier this season. The Eagles restricted the Rams to twenty factors (six of which got here in rubbish time when Philly’s backups had been taking part in) and 290 yards.

And so there’s cause to imagine Fangio has McVay’s quantity.

An oversimplified have a look at this matchup is the movement man versus the motion-stopper. Stats by way of NFL Professional:

The Rams offense featured movement on 82.1% of performs this season, the 2nd-highest fee within the NFL. Matthew Stafford recorded the 2nd-most passing yards within the league on performs with movement (3,123) whereas Puka Nacua recorded essentially the most receiving yards within the league on performs he was despatched in movement (457). Matchup: The Eagles protection allowed the fewest yards per play within the NFL in opposition to performs with movement (4.7). Nevertheless, in Week 12, the Eagles allowed 6.0 yards per play when the Rams used movement, their Third-most this season.

6 – The Rams may attempt to go after Darius Slay once more

The Rams weren’t shy to go after Slay within the final matchup. The veteran cornerback was focused 5 instances on simply 18 protection snaps earlier than he left the sport early as a consequence of a concussion.

Slay will possible see a number of Nacua on this matchup. Stopping the second-year large receiver isn’t any simple activity. However one other good playoff recreation from Slay would go a great distance.

7 – Quinyon Mitchell’s kryptonite?

Q has had an incredible rookie season. He’s allowed simply 0.8 yards per protection snap for the reason that Eagles’ bye, which ranks sixth-fewest amongst NFL cornerbacks throughout that span.

Groups have clearly been reluctant to throw his manner. Amongst 78 NFL cornerbacks who’ve logged at the very least 385 protection snaps, solely 10 gamers have been focused at a decrease frequency.

However the Rams recreation was statistically one of many decrease factors for Mitchell. In accordance with NFL Professional, he allowed six receptions for 75 yards as the closest defender in protection in Week 12. The rookie hasn’t allowed larger totals in both class this season.

8 – Cooper vs. Cooper

Cooper DeJean bought the most effective of Cooper Kupp in Week 12.

By way of NFL Professional:

In Week 12, DeJean was focused a team-high 9 instances, 5 of which had been to Cooper Kupp. Kupp recorded 3 catches on 5 targets for 11 yards with DeJean as the closest defender.

With the ability to take Kupp away ought to permit the Eagles’ protection to particularly give attention to Nacua.

Cooper vs. Cooper.

In opposition to one of the expert route runners within the NFL…

Cooper DeJean fully shuts DOWN Cooper Kupp to get an enormous Third down cease.

DeJean continues to make an instantaneous influence within the NFL. pic.twitter.com/m3oFQbbaWV

— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) November 25, 2024

9 – The traditional A.J. Brown overcorrection

To be clear, I imply this as an excellent factor. Throwing the ball to A.J. Brown loads is a really sensible concept.

Hat tip to PHLY’s Zach Berman for citing this level earlier this week. There have been a number of “the squeaky wheel gets the grease” video games since Brown has joined the Eagles.

A couple of examples:

Week 2 in 2023: 6 targets, 4 receptions, 29 yardsWeek 3 in 2024: 14 targets, 9 receptions, 131 yards

Week 9 in 2024: 4 targets, 2 receptions, 36 yardsWeek 10 in 2024: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 109 yards

Week 14 in 2024: 4 targets, 4 receptions, 43 yardsWeek 15 in 2024: 11 targets, 8 receptions, 110 yards, 1 TD

In opposition to the Packers, Brown was solely focused thrice for one catch that resulted in 10 yards. One would think about he’ll be rather more lively on this recreation. Particularly for the reason that Rams lack expertise at cornerback.

The Rams have beforehand struggled to cowl Brown. In Week 12, his seven targets resulted in six catches for 109 yards (18.2 common) and one landing. In 2023, Brown’s eight targets resulted in six catches for 127 yards (21.2 common).

The over/beneath for Brown receiving yards on this recreation is about at 70.5. The Eagles are in all probability going to run the ball loads and Brown isn’t fairly 100% as he offers with a knee damage. And but the over nonetheless looks like a no brainer.

Brown’s interior excellence will result in outer excellence on Sunday afternoon.

10 – Hold feeding Dallas Goedert

The Rams didn’t wrestle to cowl Goedert in Week 12 when he was focused 5 instances for 4 yards and simply 19 yards.

However the Rams have allowed the second-most tight finish receptions and fourth-most tight finish yards this season.

Additionally, Goedert noticed 9 targets for eight receptions, 117 yards, and one landing in opposition to the Rams in 2023. That was Goedert’s third-highest receiving whole of his profession.

Goedert has regarded good since getting back from a knee damage in Week 18. Hold feeding him.

11 – The Nakobe Dean substitute plan

Dean’s damage is such a disgrace. He was taking part in at a such a excessive stage. And he was particularly nice in opposition to the Rams earlier this season. The Eagles will miss him.

Oren Burks solely performed subsequent to Zack Baun after Dean went down in opposition to the Packers. However Fangio made it sound like we may see a Burks-Jeremiah Trotter Jr. rotation transferring ahead. The Eagles beforehand used that two-man setup when Dean missed Week 17.

There’s little doubt that McVay might be trying to exploit the non-Baun linebackers. We’ll see if the Eagles are in a position to get by with what they’ve bought or if that’s going to be a serious situation for this protection.

12 – One other snow bowl?!

The present forecast for Sunday’s 3:00 PM Japanese kickoff exhibits an opportunity of snow:

Matthew Stafford coming to Philly for a recreation within the snow. Why does that sound acquainted?

Photograph by Elsa/Getty Photographs

A playoff snow recreation might be fairly cool. One would assume these circumstances ought to favor the Eagles.

Stafford hasn’t been recognized for thriving in inclement climate.

Matthew Stafford outdoor within the rain/snow: 1-8 document, 54.6 completion proportion, 14 TDs, 11 INTs. 76.0 passer ranking.

75% likelihood of snow on Sunday in Philadelphia.

— Tucker Bagley (@TBagleySports) January 16, 2025

Additionally, the Rams have actually solely performed one chilly climate recreation this whole season: Week 16 on the New York Jets with 23 diploma temps and eight mph winds.

Throughout that recreation, Stafford threw his solely decide from his final eight begins. His closing stat line: 14/19, 110 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 83.2 passer ranking.

The Rams scored 19 factors in opposition to a Jets protection that allowed the Twentieth-most factors per recreation (23.8) in 2024. And that was with LA being +1 in turnover differential with two takeaways.

Very famously, no heat climate staff has ever come to Philly and received within the playoffs.

13 – The Eagles taking good care of enterprise at residence

As of me typing this sentence, the Eagles are favored by six factors.

For the reason that Eagles employed Nick Sirianni in 2021, no staff is healthier with regards to profitable as residence favorites.

For the reason that Rams traded for Matthew Stafford in 2021, they’ve hardly been street warriors.

Since 2021

The Rams as street underdogs

Straight up: 5-14 (ninth worst profitable proportion)In opposition to the unfold: 8-8-3

The Eagles as residence favorites

Straight up: 26-4 (NFL’s finest profitable proportion)ATS: 18-10-2 (2nd finest cowl proportion)

— Brandon Lee Gowton (@BrandonGowton) January 15, 2025

14 – Milton Williams primed to thrive

In accordance with NFL Professional, Jalen Carter confronted a double-team on 62.9% of his go rushes in Week 12 in opposition to the Rams. That was the fifth-highest double-team fee he’s ever confronted.

All of that further consideration going his manner allowed for Milton Williams to dominate his one-on-one alternatives. Williams had fairly the evening with a career-high two sacks, a career-high three TFLs, and one in all his two profession pressured fumbles.

Correspondingly, Rams left guard Steve Avila and middle Beaux Limmer actually struggled within the final matchup. Avila was the Rams’ worst offensive participant from that recreation by PFF’s grading.

Possibly the Rams don’t double Carter as a lot this time round? In that case, he’ll make them pay. If not, Williams is greater than able to wrecking the Rams.

15 – Each kickers bear monitoring

With Jake Elliott blowing an additional level in opposition to the Packers, he’s as much as 10 missed kicks this season. Not splendid. Powerful to completely belief him proper now.

However the Eagles aren’t alone with regards to kicker struggles. Rookie Joshua Karty has missed 5 subject objectives and 4 further factors this season for 9 whole misses.

Now, Karty has not missed a subject purpose for the reason that Eagles recreation, the place he didn’t make a 47-yarder. However he has missed two further factors since then … and one in all them was outdoor in chilly climate in opposition to the Jets.

16 – The Shawn Smith issue

Shawn Smith is the referee for this recreation. If you happen to don’t know who that’s, right here’s a reminder:

C.J. Gardner-Johnson is the one man whose trash speak is so nasty he can get punched within the face and the ref STILL flags him and never the man doing the punching pic.twitter.com/UBB2JoJQZg

— Christian D’Andrea (@TrainIsland) December 22, 2024

There was some actual dangerous officiating within the Eagles’ loss to the Washington Commanders. One would hope that’s not an element right here, although the Birds beforehand did beat the Rams regardless of dangerous calls earlier this season.

The Eagles are 3-3 in six video games the place Smith has served because the referee.

Penalties referred to as on the Eagles from these video games: 45 for 489 yardsPenalties referred to as on the opponents these video games: 37 for 296 yards

17 – Sean Desai revenge recreation?!

In case you didn’t understand, the previous Eagles defensive coordinator is now a senior defensive assistant/affiliate head coach on the Rams.

Whereas Desai had his faults, there’s no denying the Eagles did him soiled by demoting him in favor of Matt Patricia.

Desai wasn’t in a position to assist the Rams beat the Eagles again in Week 12.

18 – Beware The Cliff Curse

You must be steeped in The Ringer’s Philly Particular podcast lore to completely admire this level however right here’s the TL;DR for the initiated.

When Ace Producer Cliff Augustin attends sports activities video games in individual, dangerous issues usually occur for Philly sports activities groups. The proof means that “The Cliff Curse” might be an actual factor.

On a associated programming be aware, I’ll be doing one other visitor look on The Ringer’s Philly Particular with the legendary Sheil Kapadia for the Eagles-Rams postgame pod. So, ensure to verify that out to listen to our takeaways from an enormous Eagles win … assuming Cliff doesn’t go to the sport.