With the 2024 common season within the books, I needed to offer a deep dive on explosive performs (20 yards or extra). Just a few years in the past, I created what I name Adjusted Explosive Performs (AEP): the full depend of explosive performs, double-explosives (40 yards or extra) including a multiplier of two, and triple-explosive performs (60 yards or extra) multiplying by three. For each play that ended in the long run zone, I multiplied by six.
The longer the explosive, the higher, and the best emphasis on the final word objective of scoring factors.
Listed here are uncooked explosive play totals on offense and protection for an preliminary view:
The Pittsburgh Steelers land above the imply in on each side of the ball. The protection allowed 57 explosive performs (T-ninth), and offense had 66 explosive performs, which ranked tenth within the 2024 common season. Being top-10 in every is an superior truth and can hopefully reoccur within the postseason.
Their first Wild Card challenger stands out as with the NFLs most explosive performs within the 2024 with 84, the Baltimore Ravens. That was 5 greater than some other offense this 12 months, and is a scary proposition for the matchup this weekend.
Nearly all of explosives come via the air on the whole. Baltimore had 56 explosive passes (T-sixth), as QB Lamar Jackson has improved enormously as a passer. Together with that, the Ravens have been an NFL-best with 28 explosive rushes, led by Jackson and RB Derrick Henry.
The latter was a giant distinction in how the prior two common season matchups went down. Within the Steelers 18-16 Week 11 win, they pressured a really early fumble, and confronted simply 13 rush makes an attempt from Henry. Within the newer Week 16 loss, Henry went for 162 dashing yards on 24 makes an attempt, together with a double-explosive 44 yarder, together with one other 25 yarder from RB Justice Hill.
In totality, Baltimore had three explosive performs that sport, however two have been double-explosives. One was the Henry run simply mentioned, and a giant 49-yard go to WR Zay Flowers, who won’t play Saturday because of harm.
Whereas Week 11 was a Steelers win, they allowed extra explosives from Baltimore’s offense at 5. As soon as once more, two have been rushes, from Henry (31) and Jackson (25). The Ravens additionally had a double-explosive 42 yarder to TE Isaiah Possible. Pittsburgh’s protection has struggled guarding the place amidst their shedding streak, together with two complete TDs to Ravens TEs.
Huge passing performs allowed, and the waning run protection towards potent assaults on this four-game shedding streak is extremely regarding. Having to account for Jackson’s dashing skill as one of the best working QB within the NFL makes it an excellent more durable job than regular as properly.
Two of the important thing parts which might be excessive on my radar for hopeful Steelers victory is the turnover battle, one other catalyst to profitable the primary sport, and naturally the subject at this time – explosive performs.
Listed here are the per sport numbers for Pittsburgh on each side of the ball:
Week 1 Vs. ATL (W 18-10): OFF – 3, DEF – 1Week 2 Vs. DEN (W 13-6): OFF – 0, DEF – 4Week 3 Vs. LAC (W 20-10): OFF – 8, DEF – 1Week 4 Vs. IND (L 27-24): OFF – 5, DEF – 5Week 5 Vs. DAL (L 20-17): OFF – 2, DEF – 6Week 6 Vs. LV (W 32-13): OFF – 5, DEF – 1Week 7 Vs. NYJ (W 37-15): OFF – 6, DEF – 3Week 8 Vs. NYG (W 26-18): OFF – 5, DEF – 6Week 9 BYEWeek 10 Vs. WAS (W 28-27): OFF – 4, DEF – 3Week 11 Vs. BAL (W 18-16): OFF – 3, DEF – 5Week 12 Vs. CLE (L 24-19): OFF – 6, DEF – 3Week 13 Vs. CIN (W 44-38): OFF – 10, DEF – 5Week 14 Vs. CLE (W 27-14): OFF – 5, DEF – 2Week 15 Vs. PHI (L 27-13): OFF – 2, DEF – 8Week 16 Vs. BAL (L 34-17): OFF – 2, DEF – 4Week 17 Vs. KC (L 29-10): OFF – 4, DEF – 3Week 18 Vs. CIN (L 19-17): OFF – 1, DEF – 0
We clearly see a downtrend. Notably for Pittsburgh’s offense, who’ve 4 or much less amongst their most up-to-date 4 losses. That solely occurred 5 different video games this season (out of 13), so clearly falling off a cliff. A few of that is self-inflicted, however defenses have additionally discovered how one can restrict Pittsburgh’s offense in comparison with earlier within the season.
Included in that’s Pittsburgh QB Russell Wilson’s points towards zone protection. Our Alex Kozora and I delved into the subject, and he concluded that it’s the No. 1 flaw with Russell Wilson. Defenses are inviting quick passes, together with limiting his moon-ball, his best power. He additionally doesn’t assault the intermediate elements of the sphere sufficient, so the outcomes on the sphere aren’t stunning general.
One factor’s for certain, changes should be made, as a result of protection certain have. Look no additional than their most up-to-date sport, towards an improved however not elite protection in Cincinnati, who restricted them to only one explosive play, yikes.
This was painful in that 19-17 loss, particularly when including the actual fact Pittsburgh’s protection held QB Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense to no explosive performs. That’s extraordinarily spectacular, and the unit has made optimistic strides in every of the final three weeks since permitting a whopping eight explosives to Philadelphia’s offense.
The Steelers protection allowed 5 or extra explosive performs six video games in 2024, and simply three for the reason that bye week. Very encouraging, set to face the potent Baltimore offense although, who had 5 and 4 of their matchups this season.
Now let’s take a look at adjusted explosive performs (AEP), and see how that added worth appears across the league:
For extra context, the strongest OAEP was 232 from Philadelphia, one of the best balanced crew in every, and the Jets on protection (96). Baltimore nonetheless is among the higher offenses, however the Eagles and Lions handed their prime rank in explosives with a 222 OAEP. These have been clearly the highest three offenses in 2024, and among the many strongest groups within the postseason, miles above Pittsburgh’s offense.
As soon as once more, the extra encouraging Steelers protection will hopefully be as much as the duty of stopping one other extremely potent offense, as they’ve completed in previous rivalry slug-fests. However the Ravens’ offense is a unique animal this 12 months, as we see on movie and within the information as properly. Right here’s to hoping Pittsburgh wins the explosive play battle, which may bode properly to profitable their first playoff sport since 2016.
Lastly, I needed to offer a desk of the AEP particulars for extra context:
Whereas the Steelers offense made strides as a extra explosive offense than current seasons, they lacked explosive performs of 40 yards or extra. Eight double-explosives (40-plus), no triple-explosives (60-plus), and eight explosive touchdowns in 2024. Pittsburgh went 5-3 in video games that they had a double explosive, and 6-1 after they had an explosive landing, the latter considered one of my largest hopes for Tremendous Wildcard weekend.
The protection allowed much more double-explosives (12), and allowed multiples in three video games: Week Eight vs. Giants, Week 13 vs. Cincinnati, and in the newest Week 16 34-17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. Definitely an element within the loss, and can probably must be much less, because it was en path to a Steelers victory in Week 11. Knock on wooden that’s the case, giving Pittsburgh the sting in one of the best of three collection versus getting one and completed postseason, an all too acquainted feeling of late within the Metal Metropolis.
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