Fantasy Soccer ‘24: The largest hits and misses

The 2024-25 NFL common season got here to an finish on Sunday evening, with the Lions blowing open a detailed recreation towards the Vikings within the second half, and taking house the NFC North crown, along with the No. 1 seed within the convention. Is it me, or did this season go by rapidly? It looks like just a few weeks in the past that I used to be prepping for fantasy drafts, and sharing that prep with readers.

I’ll be sincere: My prep didn’t repay as a lot as ordinary this 12 months, nor did writing 40+ articles between the preseason and common season. As I mentioned in my Fantasy Takeaways column, this was the season of the operating again, and in case you didn’t spend money on the place, otherwise you went WR/TE-heavy early, you in all probability struggled via the season. A dizzying variety of high-end receivers underperformed and/or acquired damage, whereas operating backs stayed remarkably wholesome and put up massive fantasy factors. A brand new development? I’m skeptical, and we’ll see what subsequent 12 months brings.

On the finish of every season, I like to return and have a look at two of my preseason columns specifically, to see how I did at prognosticating: Inexperienced Gentle, Gamers to Goal, and Pink Gentle, Gamers to Keep away from. In each instances, the picks have been made within the context of draft worth (both skilled consensus rankings (ECR) or common draft place (ADP)). I’ve linked to them above. My outcomes have been blended, as you’d anticipate with any giant batch of prognostications. General, I had extra hits than misses. For me, it’s extra about whether or not the evaluation was sound than precise outcomes, which may be impacted for all kinds of causes (not the least of which is accidents), each foreseen and unexpected. But it surely’s nonetheless enjoyable to look again. Or not, if we’re speaking about my enthusiasm for Diontae Johnson this season. That’s an excellent instance of what I feel was sound evaluation (giving Bryce Younger a confirmed high-volume goal to assist in his growth, on a group that was going to wish to throw a ton whereas taking part in catch-up), however horrible outcomes. I’ll undergo every place and provides my largest hit, largest miss, and different ideas.

All fantasy rankings and scoring stats are for Half-PPR scoring, and exclude Week 18.

From Heisman to OPOY, Daniels delivers!

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Quarterback:

Greatest Hit: Jayden Daniels. I used to be throughout Daniels within the preseason, and had him ranked inside my High-10 which was greater than consensus. I liked his dual-threat skillset and the ceiling that it introduced. I additionally preferred the state of affairs as Washington had an terrible protection in 2023 and was probably going to be chasing factors an honest quantity. His end because the QB5 on a fantasy factors per recreation (FPPG) foundation was higher than even I anticipated. He ought to be the third or fourth quarterback off the board subsequent season. An honorable point out right here goes to my fade name on C.J. Stroud, who I believed was means overpriced.

Greatest Miss: Joe Burrow. I had a fade name on Burrow at his ADP, specifically due to uncertainty about his mysterious wrist harm plus the continued holdout by Ja’Marr Chase, which wasn’t resolved till proper earlier than Week 1. In 2023, Burrow had a calf harm within the preseason and it hampered him for an enormous chunk of what ended up being a disappointing season. I couldn’t shake that reminiscence.

Different: I had a fairly good really feel for the quarterback place, and was usually greater than consensus on all of the dual-threats and never keen to overpay for any pocket passers. For those who adopted the technique of ready after which grabbing two of the mid-range guys, you in all probability did OK. Included in my checklist of fellows you could possibly seize as QB2s with upside have been some good concepts (Jared Goff) and a few unhealthy ones (Trevor Lawrence and Kirk Cousins). In some way, I had Justin Herbert included in each columns (my unhealthy on that), however I used to be a backer as evidenced by me taking him as my QB2 in my fundamental league.

Cooks cooked his ADP

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Operating Again:

Greatest Hit: A trio of RBs within the “dead zone” (Rounds 3-6) smashed: Josh Jacobs, James Cook dinner, and James Connor. Thanks very a lot! All ended up outperforming their draft worth by a large margin, with Jacobs and Cook dinner ending contained in the High-10 operating backs for the season on a FPPG foundation, and Conner at RB14.

Greatest Miss: Fades on each Kyren Williams and De’Von Achane. Ouch. I believed each have been overpriced and wouldn’t see sufficient quantity to justify their worth. Wasn’t Blake Corum presupposed to eat into Kyren’s workload, and wasn’t Raheem Mostert presupposed to proceed splitting the work with Achane? Boy, was I flawed on each.

Different: I used to be out on Jonathan Brooks, D’Andre Swift, and Rachaad White at ADP, and in on Chase Brown. Nice! I used to be additionally all-in on Isiah Pacheco (who acquired damage, however even when he had stayed heathy, I’m skeptical that he would’ve returned worth at his lofty worth), and missed on a few others together with Devin Singletary. General, and like many, I wasn’t excessive sufficient on operating backs (vs. broad receivers) basically in 2024.

BTJ paced an impressive rookie WR class

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Huge Receiver

Greatest Hit: Fading Marvin Harrison, Jr. Harrison had a preseason ADP of 16. Not WR16, general participant 16! And whereas his closing numbers weren’t atrocious, he missed his worth by a really broad margin, regardless of staying wholesome for all 17 video games in a 12 months the place receivers dropped like flies. He completed the season outdoors the High-40 broad receivers, at 9.4 FPPG. 4 rookie WRs outscored him, and a fifth (Jalen McMillan) additionally did in case you simply depend the video games the place he began. For those who spent a treasured second spherical choose on Harrison, it was quite a bit to beat.

Greatest Miss: The place do I start? Let’s go together with goal (at ECR) calls on Deebo Samuel and Jaylen Waddle. What occurred to those gamers?

Different: I truly did fairly properly with broad receivers in a difficult season for the place, regardless of the massive misses famous above (plus whiffs on Diontae Johnson and Cooper Kupp, each of whom I used to be very excessive on). I used to be very proper about Chris Godwin having an enormous bounce-back season working principally out of the slot…till he suffered a season-ending harm. He was the WR2 earlier than getting damage in Week 7. Fade calls on Chris Olave and Jayden Reed additionally labored out – each felt overpriced to me. Concentrating on Malik Nabers at his worth additionally had an honest return, though his greatest manufacturing got here very late, through the fantasy playoffs. And the place I actually did properly was with a couple of of my “other” guys to focus on later in drafts (specifically Brian Thomas, Jr., Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Khalil Shakir, Rasheed Shahid, and Jameson Williams), though Shaheed was one other WR who was misplaced for the season after an awesome begin. These gamers have been all glorious values, and particularly Thomas who completed because the WR9 on a FPPG foundation (and the WR4 in whole factors).

NEVER AGAIN!

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Tight Finish

Greatest Hit: Avoiding each Dallas Goedert and Cole Kmet, at value. Not that the price was all that a lot, however neither of those tight ends confirmed any consistency, and Goedert has solidified himself as a gifted TE who isn’t used all that constantly in his offense, and will get damage each single season.

Greatest Miss: Dangle on. I have to placed on some music. OK, I’ve acquired “Won’t Get Fooled Again” by The Who blasting within the background. Thanks, Kyle Pitts. No actually, thanks for nothing. Once more. The evaluation sounded good in my head. Atlanta was lastly going to have a confirmed, prolific quarterback who might unlock his “generational talent.” I’m out, without end. Though I’ve to say, Michael Penix regarded good on the finish of the season, and possibly subsequent 12 months he and Pitts…STOP IT! I gained’t get fooled once more.

Different: Dalton Kincaid, what occurred? I wasn’t alone in whiffing on an enormous breakout from the Payments’ second 12 months tight finish. It’s unusual – Josh Allen had an MVP caliber-season however none of his pass-catchers have been all that nice. He unfold the wealth all 12 months, and he and James Cook dinner took an enormous chunk of the TDs.

And that’s that. I can’t wait to put in writing these two columns once more in 2025. Benefit from the Wild Card video games and in case you’re taking part in in some sort of fantasy playoff contest, good luck!