Giants-Colts: Can the Giants decelerate the stampede?

The New York Giants return to Metlife Stadium for one final residence recreation this Sunday. They host the Indianapolis Colts in Week 17 as they attempt to finish their franchise-record 10-game shedding streak and keep away from going winless at residence.

This recreation has lengthy been seen as one of many extra “winnable” (if such a label may be utilized to the 2024 Giants) video games on the calendar. The Colts are coming off of a recreation in opposition to the Tennessee Titans through which they jumped out to an enormous 38-7 lead and set a franchise dashing report with 335 dashing yards. The Titans finally closed the hole with 23 unanswered factors within the remaining 18 minutes of the sport, however these got here after the Colts took their foot off the fuel and pulled starters.

Indy’s floor recreation was so dominant that quarterback Anthony Richardson solely needed to throw 11 passes.

The Giants’ protection has performed with coronary heart, however accidents and an absolute albatross of an offense have dragged them down. Can the Giants’ protection forestall one final humiliation at residence?

Stats that matter

Jonathan Taylor

The Giants are closing out their season dealing with a month-long stretch of nice operating backs and nice dashing assaults. The protection has truly acquitted itself effectively defending the run and first operating backs.

The Giants have performed a superb job of stopping explosive runs during the last a number of weeks. Bijan Robinson solely managed a protracted of 14 yards, Derrick Henry had a protracted of 13 yards, and Alvin Kamara had 16 yards. None of these backs topped 100 yards, and the Big have given up a mean of 68.3 per recreation (3.86 yards per carry) to beginning backs

However they’ll have their work minimize out for them in opposition to the Colts and Jonathan Taylor (we’ll get to Anthony Richardson in a second).

Taylor brings an unusual mix of dimension and explosiveness to the operating again place that’s harking back to Saquon Barkley. He’s a compact, highly effective again at 5-foot-10, 225 kilos, however has 4.3 velocity (4.39 second 40 on the 2020 Mix), in addition to a 36-inch vertical and 10-foot-3 broad soar. Taylor is coming off of an enormous 218-yard, 3-touchdown recreation in opposition to the Tennessee Titans. That was the second most yards he’s gotten in a single recreation, and the 102 yards over anticipated had been essentially the most of his profession.

As famous above, the Colts even have probably the greatest run blocking offensive strains within the NFL. They function a really diverse arsenal of operating performs, however Taylor is at his most harmful when operating downhill. That’s significantly true after they scheme a pulling blocker to create a numbers benefit on the play aspect. Taylor has good imaginative and prescient, contact stability, and stride frequency, however he doesn’t have really elite acceleration. So whereas he can survive contact and decide up yards after contact, he doesn’t usually make defenders miss in a cellphone sales space or explode as soon as he stops his toes.

That (small) flaw in Taylor’s recreation is likely to be the Giants’ greatest hope for stopping (or not less than slowing) the Colts’ operating again. The center of the Giants’ protection is closely depleted by damage, and that is the place Taylor shines. Nonetheless, they’ve performed a superb job of attacking gaps and getting off blocks to remove main operating lanes. The Giants will want their younger defensive tackles to stability aggression and self-discipline to disrupt Taylor on the line of scrimmage so Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux, and no matter second degree defenders are in a position to take the sphere can rally to the ball.

Anthony Richardson — the runner

Now it’s time to speak about Anthony Richardson, and we have to discuss him in two components: First as a runner, after which as a passer.

Richardson is, by far, extra harmful as a runner than as a passer at this level in his improvement, and which will all the time be true. At 6-foot-4, 244 kilos, with a 4.43-second 40 and a 40.5-inch vertical, Richardson could be categorised as a freak athlete at just about any talent place, not to mention at quarterback. His elite dimension, energy, explosiveness, and velocity make him a particular risk to harm the protection together with his legs.

The Colts use Richardson as a ball service on designed runs and he’s averaged 7.3 carries per recreation since regaining his beginning job, per NextGenStats. He’s harmful sufficient on these performs, averaging 4.86 yards per carry with eight first downs and three touchdowns.

That stated, Richardson is far more harmful when scrambling. Per NextGenStats, Richardson is second within the NFL in explosive runs (10+ yards) on scrambles and he averages an explosive run on 48 % of his scrambles. He’s additionally second within the NFL in yards over anticipated per scramble with 3.5 yards over anticipated.

Including a second operating risk on a given play will make life considerably extra sophisticated for the Giants’ protection. They’ll must be alert for designed quarterback carries in addition to read-option performs. The truth that Richardson is larger than any of the Giants’ linebackers and just a few kilos lighter than Brian Burns or Kayvon Thibodeaux implies that the Giants will must be disciplined in defending the second 12 months participant. They will’t over-run the play and put themselves in poor place to make a sort out. Richardson’s dimension and power might imply that even the sting defenders may need assistance getting him on the bottom.

That self-discipline may even have to increase to their move rush as effectively. Not solely do all the identical points as in common run protection apply, however the Giants’ secondary can be in protection, versus coming downhill. The Giants’ defensive entrance might want to play the run first, which can decelerate their move rush, however not getting a sack is likely to be preferable to permitting him to get unfastened in house.

Apart from, Richardson throwing the ball presents a possibility for the protection.

Anthony Richardson — the passer

We additionally want to speak about Anthony Richardson as a passer. In any case, he was drafted to be a quarterback, not a glorified operating again. Richardson’s passing acumen presents one of many strangest dichotomies within the NFL at the moment. On the one hand, he might need the strongest arm within the NFL — as much as and together with Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. He can entry any a part of the sphere from nearly any a part of the sphere, from nearly any platform. He is in a position to drive the ball deep with out setting his toes or transferring his weight. He can take the highest off the defene with ease or problem tight coverages with sheer velocity. Briefly, Richardson is able to some really breathtaking throws, and there is a cause why he is main the NFL in air yards by 3 complete yards per try.

He is additionally the least correct and environment friendly passer within the NFL.

In a league the place there are a full 15 quarterbacks who’re finishing not less than 70 % of their passes, Richardson is simply barely above 50% (not counting throwaways). Richardson is not simply the least correct quarterback within the NFL, he is the least correct passer by about 12 factors. He is additionally final within the NFL in completion share over anticipated, falling wanting his anticipated completion fee by 10 factors — three factors worse than the second-worst. I ought to word, that the cutoff right here is quarterbacks with not less than 200 move makes an attempt this 12 months, of which there have been 40.

Richardson’s saving grace is that between Taylor and his personal operating potential, he is not requested to throw all that usually. He is tried simply 264 passes in 11 video games this 12 months, or 24 move makes an attempt per recreation and he threw the ball simply 11 instances in opposition to the Titans.

He has 12 interceptions to eight passing touchdowns this 12 months, for an extremely ugly 4.5% interception fee.

That presents the opposite alternative for the Giants’ on this recreation. New York may be very not-good at coming down with interceptions. Their protection simply would not have my ballhawks, and the truth that they not often power opposing offenses into “must pass” conditions, they do not get many alternatives (comparatively talking) to generate interceptions. That stated, any time Richardson drops again to move, the potential for a decide can be there. Not solely is Richardson inaccurate as a passer, he is simply plain uncooked. He is had simply 741 move makes an attempt during the last 4 years put collectively, or a mean of 185 per 12 months. A tough common for an NFL quarterback is 600 move makes an attempt per 17 video games.

If the Giants can decelerate the Colts’ run recreation sufficient to power Richardson to throw. And if they will play with sufficient self-discipline to maintain include so he would not scramble, the chance will seemingly be there to make a game-changing play.