How A lot Is Pittsburgh Struggling On First Drives?

The Pittsburgh Steelers are prepping for his or her season finale, making an attempt to proper a three-game shedding streak in opposition to the surging Cincinnati Bengals who’ve gained their final 4 video games on Saturday night time.

Amongst Pittsburgh’s points have been sluggish begins on offense, together with opening drives. Right this moment I needed to have a look at and supply knowledge context to this, and evaluate their marks across the league. Right here’s a hyperlink to an identical research on Pittsburgh’s opening drive stats by way of Week 10 I’ll reference to see season tendencies.

To begin, listed here are offenses opening drive common variety of performs and yards per recreation:

Straight away we see that the Steelers offense has been beneath the imply in common performs and yards on opening drives. Pittsburgh ranks twenty third with 6.0 common variety of performs, and 23.8-yards ranks twenty eighth (fifth-worst). That is even worse than the primary ten weeks of 2024, once they averaged 7.1 performs per opening drive and 29.8-yards (Twentieth), so a transparent downtrend that has included a discouraging three-and-out problem as properly.

That has negatively impacted their latest skid within the win column, getting behind in opposition to a more durable schedule of largely postseason groups, and a smaller window for error that has backfired of their face. If Pittsburgh needs to make noise the remainder of the best way, popping out of the gates sturdy might actually assist these hopes.

Their subsequent opponent, Cincinnati, are comfortably above the imply in every, with 7.5 performs per opening drive. That’s second greatest, solely to the Chiefs (8.6), who gained handily in opposition to Pittsburgh of their final outing, and included them getting up on the scoreboard early. Each are prime three in yards as properly, and if Pittsburgh will get down early as soon as once more, it might spell hassle in opposition to the Bengals potent offense.

Subsequent, let’s take a look at the outcomes of those drives extra with scoring and turnover charges:

Right here we see Pittsburgh’s turnover quantity is their above common charge, tying for fifth with a number of different groups. Their 37.5-percent scoring charge is beneath the imply although, tying for sixteenth. Each fare higher than the earlier view, however have down trended since Week 10, when the Steelers have been comfortably above the imply in every: no turnovers, 55.6-percent scoring charge (T-seventh).

Whereas there’s far more soccer to play after opening drives, it might set an optimum early script for the Steelers, who could be sensible to make use of each potential benefit to their disposal, versus Mike Tomlin typically downplaying the significance of beginning sluggish. Sure, ending video games is most essential, however you must be within the combat versus multi-possession losses which have occurred the final three video games.

Case and level are Cincinnati, who’re an above the imply scoring offense on opening drives, so hopefully we see Pittsburgh come out swinging once more an offense that’s extra possible than not to take action themselves.

Diving deeper, listed here are charges that zoom in on offensive manufacturing (eradicating area objectives), landing and offensive turnover charges (interceptions and fumbles):

That is the place the excruciating painful reality arises. Pittsburgh hasn’t had a gap drive landing in the complete 2024 season. Once they have scored, it’s been on the leg of Chris Boswell, who’s having an incredible yr. Contemplating all the things thus far, Pittsburgh’s first opening drive TD could be incredible to see within the finale, and a hopeful carry over into the postseason.

This might additionally bode properly in opposition to a Bengals protection that has been taking part in higher as of late, together with rolling with the punches that Cincinnati’s sixth ranked complete scoring offense will possible current. That’s how issues shook out within the first matchup, with Pittsburgh in a position to rise to that problem within the Week 13 44-38 win. 40-percent of their first drives this yr have been TDs, which is a scary fourth-best within the league.

On the opposite facet of the coin, let’s briefly look at the opening drives that sputtered on offense, and led to kicks (area objectives or punts). I sorted decrease numbers nearly as good, since offensive touchdowns are the final word aim:

As you most likely anticipated from the earlier view, Pittsburgh has one of many highest area aim charges on opening drives at 37.5-percent, tying for probably the most within the league with Dallas. Whereas it’s encouraging in a solution to come away with some semblance of factors early, we additionally see that the Steelers have been compelled to punt too typically as properly. That fifty-percent charge ties for Twentieth. In order that they don’t rating TDs, and half the time come away with nothing.

Any given Sunday although, and right here’s to hoping the Steelers offense bucks these tendencies on Saturday. Cincinnati is above the imply in every as soon as once more, punting 40-percent of the time (thirteenth) and simply 6.7 of their opening drives have led to area objectives (sixth-least). So, they’re top-of-the-line offenses within the NFL at popping out sturdy with seven factors. Sheds gentle to the acute significance of the stat for Pittsburgh to be on the precise facet of, in hopes of the season sweep in my view.

Let’s look at defenses now. Listed below are variety of performs and common yards allowed, with decrease numbers being good:

Clearly a brighter image painted right here for the Steelers protection. They’ve trended positively since Week 10 once they have been a median unit, to now being comfortably above the imply.

Limiting opposing offenses to only 5.6 performs ties for seventh-best, and 26.8-yards ranks even higher at sixth. That’s encouraging to see with all the things we now learn about Cincinnati’s offense, and brings optimism to how the finale would possibly transpire. We’ve seen Pittsburgh’s protection down pattern in a number of regards although, so hopefully they arrive out with laser focus, placing latest communication snafues and different points to mattress.

The Bengals protection has been properly beneath common in every, permitting 7.6 performs per drive (twenty eighth) and 44.9-yards (thirtieth). On paper, that clearly bodes properly for Pittsburgh’s offense, and hope they arrive out with a powerful opening script not like many stale ones we’ve seen in 2024. Execution can also be an enormous issue, hopefully seeing a really clear begin that carries by way of the sport, versus many errors and photographs within the foot we’ve seen of late.

Listed below are defenses scoring and turnover charges:

Issues get extra bleak for Pittsburgh’s protection right here, as a beneath the imply unit in every. They’ve allowed a 43.8 opening drive scoring charge (T-Twentieth) and 6.3 turnover charge ties with a number of groups for sixteenth. This has improved since Week 10 as properly although, once they had no turnovers and allowed a 55.6 scoring charge (T-Twenty seventh). Knock on wooden that continues to pattern properly.

The Bengals protection has fared higher in turnover charge, at 12.5-percent, which ties for eighth-best within the league. In order that’s a pessimistic facet to a hopefully optimistic pattern for Pittsburgh’s offense. Cincinnati has allowed a 50-percent scoring charge on opening drives, tying for Twenty fifth within the NFL. Traces up properly for the Steelers offense to publish their first opening drive landing, optimistically.

Now I’ll take away area objectives, to see how defenses fared in touchdowns allowed:

Encouragingly, we see Pittsburgh’s 18.8-percent landing charge allowed strikes to an above common mark, tying 4 seventh-best. So, which means whereas they’ve allowed scoring to the opposition greater than desired, it’s been a maintain them to a area aim story total.

Each possession the protection can preserve them off the scoreboard would assist a extra possible victory, versus permitting 38 factors within the first matchup. That may additionally put much less on the Steelers offense, who’ve scored 17 or much less in every of their final three losses.

Cincinnati has allowed a 31.3-percent TD charge (T-Twenty fourth), in order that aligns to the hope of Pittsburgh lastly beginning quick with a gap drive landing, which might enable them to get the higher hand early and play to their liking.

And the opposite facet of the coin, and supreme defensive aim, getting stops. Listed below are punt and area aim charges:

Again to a rosier image, fortunately. Pittsburgh’s protection is above the imply in every, forcing a 50.0-percent punt charge (T-eighth) and 25.0-percent area aim charge (T-fourth). Being top-ten in each on the season factors to some strengths in 2024 that can ideally reoccur within the finale, and Pittsburgh ending the yr with a excessive notice victory as a launchpad to the postseason.

The Bengals protection hasn’t been in a position to get opposing offenses off the sector total, with a low 31.3-percent punt charge (T-Twenty fifth), and have allowed an 18.8-percent FG share (T-seventh). Whereas any factors are clearly optimistic, you’ll be able to inform extra factors proper out of the gates and retaining Cincinnati of the scoreboard could be very excessive on my radar for a fingers-crossed Steelers victory.

To wrap up, here’s a desk of all of the stat ranks (by season) compiled for the research: