How the Present NFL Playoff Discipline Compares to Previous Tremendous Bowl Champions

The Minnesota Vikings enter the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs because the fifth-seed within the NFC event, coming off a loss to the Detroit Lions however with a 14-3 document, which is among the many finest successful percentages in any NFL season. All that creates a little bit of a blended image for the Vikings as a professional Tremendous Bowl contender.

However what actually issues on the subject of Tremendous Bowl champion groups? Trying again at a few of the stats of Tremendous Bowl successful groups over the previous twenty years paints a clearer image of whether or not the Vikings are professional contenders and helps separate the contenders from the pretenders on this season’s discipline of playoff groups.

Key Metrics of Tremendous Bowl Profitable Groups Over the Previous Twenty Seasons

The chart above reveals a bunch of key metrics of Tremendous Bowl champion groups over the previous twenty years. It contains rankings and uncooked numbers for a number of totally different key metrics comparable to DVOA and different effectivity metrics, turnovers, passing-related metrics, playoff expertise, and different energy of victory-related metrics.

There is no such thing as a metric or set of metrics that decide which crew will win the Tremendous Bowl. There are a number of metrics that Tremendous Bowl successful groups rank excessive in constantly, however soccer just isn’t a precise science and I’m positive if there have been metrics with excellent or near-perfect monitor data for predicting something in professional soccer, somebody would have discovered them by now.

However whereas Tremendous Bowl successful groups have been constant in being prime ranked groups in a number of metrics, there have been 4 instances prior to now twenty season when an outlier crew gained the Tremendous Bowl. These years are shaded grey. Moreover, the Chiefs the final two seasons have gained regardless of being an outlier in turnover metrics (and actually some passing metrics too) which might be shaded grey in addition to outliers.

The outlier groups have been the 2 Giants groups of 2007 and 2011, the Ravens in 2012, and the Broncos in 2015. There may be completely no metric that may have defined how the 2007 Giants, one of many worst groups to make it to the Tremendous Bowl, beat the 2007 Patriots- which might simply have been named the perfect crew of all-time had they gained the Tremendous Bowl that season. The 2011 Giants and 2012 Ravens have been additionally comparatively weak groups that merely obtained scorching within the playoffs after an above common however not significantly sturdy common season. The 2015 Broncos have been a dominant crew defensively, which isn’t an outlier trait for Tremendous Bowl successful groups, however statistically it was an outlier in lots of areas as a result of Payton Manning was injured for a lot of the common season, which led to comparatively poor offensive stats, earlier than coming again for the playoffs.

The explanation I remoted these groups as outliers, together with the Chiefs turnovers the final two seasons, is as a result of by excluding them within the 20-year common stats, there’s a stronger correlation between Tremendous Bowl successful groups and specific metrics. So, a great way to interpret the info is to say that 80% of the time, a Tremendous Bowl successful crew will probably be among the many prime groups in these metrics.

For those who take a look at the precise fringe of the chart, I’ve compiled 20-year averages for every metric together with choose averages, which exclude the shaded grey outliers. For the metrics which might be rankings, these with the bottom common rating (i.e. closest to 1) are these most correlated with champion groups (i.e. the Tremendous Bowl winner is a prime crew on this metric).

Taking a look at it that means, Tremendous Bowl successful groups over the previous twenty years are prime groups (however not all the time the highest crew) within the following metrics:

Whole DVOA. Tremendous Bowl successful groups (not together with the 4 outliers) have ranked no decrease than seventh in complete DVOA over the previous twenty seasons.

Factors per Play Margin. This measures what number of factors per play a crew scores, which is point-scoring effectivity, minus factors per play allowed defensively. The result’s a internet effectivity metric that correlates the very best of all of the metrics. The choose common rank of Tremendous Bowl successful groups being 3.3. Solely as soon as in addition to the 4 outliers has the Tremendous Bowl successful crew ranked exterior the highest six on this metric.

Level Differential Rank. Staff rating in factors scored much less factors allowed through the common season. The choose common rank not together with the outliers is 3.4, and no Tremendous Bowl successful crew besides the outliers has ranked worse than seventh on this metric.

Estimated Wins Rank. This metric measures the likelihood {that a} crew would win a recreation based mostly on the precise circumstances that occurred throughout that recreation. Groups with larger estimated wins have produced outcomes than usually result in wins and subsequently are typically stronger groups excluding luck or uncommon outcomes. The choose common rank on this metric over twenty years is 3.4, and solely 3 times within the final twenty seasons has a Tremendous Bowl successful crew (all of them outliers) ranked decrease than seventh on this metric.

Common In-Sport Win Chance. This goes again solely till 2015 but in addition correlates strongly with Tremendous Bowl successful groups. It’s a measure of a crew’s win likelihood based mostly on the rating, discipline place, time remaining, and so on. through the course of the sport. Stronger groups are sometimes main and subsequently have a greater win likelihood and are seldomly trailing by much- they’re additionally inside placing distance of successful if not forward. Tremendous Bowl successful groups have ranked no worse than eighth on this metric and the choose common is 3.4.

Common Season Win % Rank. It’s no secret that Tremendous Bowl successful groups are inclined to have gained most of their video games. Solely 3 times prior to now twenty years has a Tremendous Bowl successful crew had an everyday season successful proportion rank decrease than seventh, and the choose common is 3.4. Moreover, the precise common season successful proportion of Tremendous Bowl successful groups has averaged .731 over the previous twenty years, with the choose common simply over .750.

Opponent Passer Score Allowed. This one isn’t a rating however you’ll discover that solely twice prior to now twenty years has a Tremendous Bowl successful crew allowed an opponent passer ranking above the mid-80s and the common is under 80. The 2 exceptions occurred in more moderen years, however a playoff crew permitting a passer ranking above 90 is a little bit of a pink flag.

Playoff Expertise. Most Tremendous Bowl successful groups didn’t come out of nowhere to win it with out having been to the playoffs the earlier yr. 80% of the time over the previous twenty years the Tremendous Bowl successful crew had been within the playoffs the earlier yr.

How the Present Playoff Discipline Stacks Up

After all, simply because a crew isn’t an outlier in any of the above metrics doesn’t imply they are going to win the Tremendous Bowl. Different groups within the playoffs may additionally not be outliers.

However groups which might be outliers in additional metrics are much less and fewer prone to win the Tremendous Bowl 80% of the time, wanting on the previous twenty Tremendous Bowl champions.

The chart above reveals how every crew within the present postseason event stacks as much as previous Tremendous Bowl champions in the identical metrics as the primary chart. The numbers in pink signify outliers. There are solely two groups that don’t have any outliers: the Lions and Eagles. The Vikings and Ravens have simply two, and the Packers and Payments have three. These six groups stack up as professional Tremendous Bowl contenders judging by previous Tremendous Bowl champions.

The Chiefs may additionally be thought-about a professional contender based mostly on their pedigree and the truth that they’ve managed to win the final two Tremendous Bowls regardless of some vital outliers and given they’ve the best path to the convention championship it might appear.

Total, it’s most likely not that insightful that the Lions, Eagles, and Vikings have the perfect likelihood on paper to win the NFC title and the Payments and Ravens the perfect likelihood on paper to win the AFC title.

Nevertheless it’s vital to notice that the crew with the perfect metrics doesn’t all the time win. Final season, for instance, the Ravens have been #1 in each main metric- DVOA, estimated wins, level differential, and factors per play margin. However they misplaced to the Chiefs, who ranked between third and sixth in these metrics, at house. Equally, the Cowboys ranked between second and fourth in these main metrics however misplaced to the Packers- who have been outliers in nearly each one- at house.

Matchups Matter

This yr, within the AFC it might appear each the Ravens and Payments have straightforward wild card video games that may possible set them up for a divisional spherical matchup, whereas the chilly climate Chiefs will host a heat climate crew within the divisional spherical, giving them a a lot simpler path to the convention championship.

The NFC is a little more evenly matched and subsequently tougher to foretell the way it will play out.

On paper, the Rams are the weakest crew within the discipline with a number of pink flags: seventeenth in DVOA, a adverse level differential, and poor effectivity, passing, and energy of victory metrics typically. Most of that has to do with a weak protection, which hasn’t been as impacted by accidents because the offense has been. And so they don’t have any sturdy metrics to offset the weak ones. That would appear to bode nicely for the Vikings’ probabilities, however the Rams did beat the Vikings earlier within the season, so there’s that.

The Bucs and Commanders look pretty related on paper as nicely throughout all metrics, with a greater offense than protection. The Bucs have playoff expertise and residential discipline benefit, and so they beat the Commanders the primary week of the season and had a harder schedule, however the Commanders have the higher document. Total, the Bucs look higher positioned to advance, given that they had a harder schedule and have already overwhelmed three NFC playoff groups this season- the Lions, Eagles, and Commanders. Nevertheless it might be an in depth recreation.

The Packers aren’t as weak on paper in comparison with the Eagles as you’d count on in a matchup between second and seventh seeds. The Eagles have the higher document but in addition had a a lot simpler schedule in opponent DVOA phrases. The Packers misplaced to the Eagles week one in Brazil, however it was an in depth recreation and the rematch might be too.

A Destructive Indicator

Total, how the present discipline of playoff groups compares to earlier Tremendous Bowl champions serves as extra of a adverse indicator, ruling out groups which might be extra possible pretenders than figuring out the champion.

In that sense, the Rams, Bucs, Commanders, Texans, Chargers, Steelers, and Broncos appear like the pretenders on this postseason event and are unlikely to advance previous the division spherical at finest.

Seeding as Chance

By way of playoff seeding, over the previous twenty seasons the primary seed has gained the Tremendous Bowl seven instances, the second or third seed six instances, and the fourth, fifth, or sixth seed seven instances. So roughly a 3rd of the time for every group, though the later teams signify two- and three-times as many groups. The seventh seed, a more moderen addition to the playoffs, has by no means gained the Tremendous Bowl. It’s fascinating that after a stretch of 5 years when the primary seed gained the Tremendous Bowl yearly, a prime seeded crew has solely gained it as soon as prior to now six seasons. And a primary, second, third, fourth, and fifth seeded crew have all gained the Tremendous Bowl within the final 5 years. That needs to be a primary within the Tremendous Bowl period. You’d have thought that first seeds would win much more usually since 2020, when the format modified so solely first seeds get a first-round bye, however that hasn’t been the case. The primary seed win charge has truly decreased, though nonetheless a small pattern dimension.

How the Vikings Stack Up

There is no such thing as a query the Vikings are professional Tremendous Bowl contenders that would win all of it. They’d rank on the low facet of regular in some metrics in the event that they gained the Tremendous Bowl however wouldn’t be an outlier.

The one actual outliers for the Vikings are their level differential rank, although their precise level differential is low however probably not an outlier at 100. The opposite is their lack of earlier yr playoff expertise, however they made the playoffs two seasons in the past and coaches and most present starters all have playoff expertise.

Trying up and down in any respect the metrics, the Vikings and Eagles evaluate very equally all the best way down the road, regardless of totally different types on each side of the ball. It’s price noting nonetheless that the Eagles have performed a a lot simpler schedule measured by DVOA of opponents. However they’ve additionally gone 5-2 towards playoff groups this season. The Vikings are 3-3.

The Lions are the perfect crew on paper on this season’s playoff discipline, however it wouldn’t be a lot of an upset if both the Eagles or Vikings, and even the Packers, beat them. Equally, it wouldn’t be a lot of an upset if the Payments or Ravens beat them both. In more moderen years, the strongest crew on paper hasn’t gained the Tremendous Bowl. The final time that occurred was the 2016 Patriots.

By way of matchups, the Vikings obtained a positive draw on paper within the wild card spherical with the Rams. The highway venue isn’t significantly hostile both, and will even transfer to a impartial web site if the wildfires proceed close by. However once more, the Rams beat them earlier within the season, though the Vikings have been touring on a brief week and have been shocked by the late activation of Puca Nakua from IR, the Rams’ prime extensive receiver.

Ought to the Vikings advance, they’d most definitely face both the Eagles or Lions, with a small likelihood of going through the Commanders at house if each Washington and Inexperienced Bay win on Sunday. Each the Eagles and Lions could be formidable matchups on the highway, and most definitely the Vikings must beat each of them to advance to the Tremendous Bowl. After which most definitely both the Ravens, Payments, or defending champion Chiefs to win it.

That’s a tall order for any crew. However yearly one crew emerges from the crucible because the Tremendous Bowl champion. Might or not it’s the Vikings this yr? Positive. They match the profile of previous Tremendous Bowl champions. They’ll must play so much higher than they did final Sunday at Detroit, however stranger issues have occurred.

Ballot
Which crew will win the Tremendous Bowl this season?