Lions vs. Commanders preview, rating prediction: On Paper

The Detroit Lions and Washington Commanders face off for a spot within the NFC Championship recreation on Saturday evening. If Vegas odds are any indication, the general public appears to suppose the Lions are clear favorites on this matchup. On the time of scripting this, Detroit is 9.5-point favorites, the most important line of the week. Nevertheless, bettors have been feasting on the Lions this 12 months, in order that is probably not probably the most correct reflection of this matchup.

So let’s bounce into the nitty gritty of Lions vs. Commanders with our statistical breakdown, preview, and prediction. It’s time for Divisional Spherical On Paper!

Observe: DVOA rankings don’t embrace postseason performances

Lions move offense (sixth in DVOA) vs. Commanders move protection (twentieth)

The Lions’ move offense has been their most constant unit all season. Jared Goff has actually solely had a few tough video games, and most had been concentrated proper initially of the 12 months whereas the offense knocked off some rust. Since then, Goff has been taking part in at a degree that has stored him simply exterior the MVP dialog. He ranks:

Second in passing yards (4,629)
Fourth in passing touchdowns (37)
Second in yards per try (8.6)
Second in passer score (111.8)
Sixth in QBR (68.5)
Third in dropback EPA (0.267)
First in dropback success price (53.6%)

So whereas DVOA could have the Lions at sixth in passing protection, I’ve them firmly within the high 5, most likely within the high three.

A part of what makes them harmful is the myriad of weapons they’ve. 4 completely different gamers (Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs) have caught a minimum of 50 passes this season. Detroit is only one of 5 groups who completed that this season (Buccaneers, Bengals, Falcons, Dolphins).

If there’s a weak point to Detroit’s passing recreation, it’s oddly their move safety. It’s not an enormous legal responsibility, however contemplating the offensive line’s fame, it’s a bit stunning to see their pedestrian rating in a number of classes. They’re fifteenth in strain price (33.5%), seventeenth in PFF’s move blocking grade (68.6), and twelfth in ESPN’s move block win price.

Left guard Graham Glasgow has been the most important legal responsibility, permitting a team-high 36 pressures, whereas left sort out Taylor Decker has allowed eight sacks. If there’s a facet to assault, it’s Detroit’s left. Nevertheless, regulate proper guard as properly—Kevin Zeitler has but to apply this week, which may imply rookie Christian Mahogany will get his second profession begin.

Washington’s protection began out atrociously, however has been a extra common unit as of late. Yardage totals appear to be this could possibly be a greater unit than they really are, and that’s as a result of groups are working throughout them, regardless of usually trailing in these video games. The Commanders have confronted the second-fewest move makes an attempt within the NFL, which is fairly stunning for a 12-5 group. You’d suppose groups could be throwing extra to play catch up, however most of Washington’s win have been shut sufficient for groups to remain true to their run recreation.

Anyway, of their first 12 months beneath defensive-minded head coach Dan Quinn, they’ve been a comparatively below-average unit. They rank:

sixteenth in yards per try (7.0)
nineteenth in passer score (93.9)
twenty second dropback EPA (0.099)
thirteenth in dropback success price (45.7%)

However as you could count on, on the subject of the primary 12 months in a brand new defensive scheme, they’ve gotten higher because the season has progressed. Listed below are those self same statistics within the again half of the season (Week 10 and past):

6.2 yards per try
fifth in passer score (84.5)
18th dropback EPA (0.116)
4th in dropback success price (42.8%)
18th in DVOA

We’re speaking backside half of the league to high 10 in some classes.

That mentioned, the Commanders battle to place strain on quarterback and canopy. They rank seventeenth in strain proportion and sixteenth in PFF move rush grade although they blitz extra usually than all however 5 groups (32.9% price). When it comes to protection, they rank twenty ninth in PFF grade, and their finest cornerback could also be rookie Mike Sainristil—though getting Marshon Lattimore again from harm could possibly be massive for them.

Nonetheless, Washington manages to maintain all of it collectively because of sound protection and good teaching.

Participant to look at: Frankie Luvu. Washington’s do-it-all linebacker could be a risk each in protection (seven passes defended, one INT) and move rush (8.0 sacks, 36 pressures).

Benefit: Lions +2.5. Only a few groups have found out a solution to sluggish the Lions’ passing assault, and I don’t suppose the Commanders have the horses to take action. The one factor that considerations me on this matchup is Washington’s duo of linebackers (Luvu and Bobby Wagner). Goff generally struggles towards good linebacking corps, and that’s undoubtedly the power of this protection.

Lions run offense (2nd) vs. Commanders run protection (twenty sixth)

The Lions have rushed for a minimum of 120 speeding yards in 13 of 17 video games this season. They’ve hit a minimum of 4.6 yards per carry in 10 of their video games. And whereas they had been in a little bit of a rut over the previous month or so, they’ve nonetheless managed to regulate the sport with their speeding recreation, even when that isn’t mirrored by their yards per carry common.

Once you take a look at effectivity via DVOA and EPA, it turns into clear simply how profitable the Lions are on the bottom. They’re second in DVOA for the season and sixth simply counting the again half. They’re fifth in EPA and fourth in success price for the season—rating tenth and seventh in these metrics because the midway level within the season. They’re simply a top-10 unit in soccer, and a superb case could be made for them being top-five.

Whereas the offensive line has been mediocre as a move blocking unit, their dominance in run blocking can’t be denied. They’re third in PFF grade, tenth in yards earlier than contact per carry, and first in adjusted line yards. They’re additionally dominant briefly yardage conditions (ninth in energy success price) and infrequently get stuffed at or behind the road of scrimmage (seventh-lowest “stuffed” price). And to assist out that particular space of the working recreation, the Lions are getting bruising again David Montgomery again this week, too.

A lot has been mentioned this week in regards to the Commanders’ poor run protection, a few of it true, a few of it exaggerated. Most have pointed to their 137.5 speeding yards allowed per recreation and 4.8 yards per carry allowed—each thirtieth within the NFL. However as you may see from the chart above, they’ve improved fairly drastically over the past two months. They nonetheless aren’t a superb run protection—they’ve allowed a median of 147.0 speeding yards and 4.67 a carry over the past 4 video games—however they stopped the hemorrhaging.

For the season, the Commanders rank twenty seventh in rush EPA and twenty fourth in success price. But when we take a look at their efficiency since Week 12, they’re thirteenth in each rush EPA and success price.

So, sure, the it is a mismatch in favor of the Lions, however I believe the lean has been largely exaggerated this week.

Participant to look at: Each guards. Detroit’s weak spots on the road could possibly be each guards. Glasgow has struggled all 12 months, however he’s been higher at run blocking than when in move safety. And whereas Mahogany has appeared good in restricted appearances this 12 months, he’s nonetheless a rookie with virtually no expertise. That mentioned, Washington’s defensive tackles haven’t performed properly this 12 months. Jonathan Allen (38.8 PFF run grade, a hundred and twenty fifth out of 14) and Daron Payne (49.6, 86th) are each former first-round picks and former Professional Bowlers, however each appear to be their finest days could be behind them.

Benefit: Lions +2. Having Montgomery again ought to give Detroit the flexibility to run no matter they need, whoever they need, and every time they need. However don’t low cost the Commanders’ latest enchancment, and the harm to one among Detroit’s finest run blockers, Kevin Zeitler (87.2 PFF grade, second in NFL).

Commanders move offense (ninth) vs. Lions move protection (4th)

It’s been a magical rookie season for Jayden Daniels and he solely appears to be getting higher. After a three-game midseason lull, Daniels has had a passer score of a minimum of 99.0 in six straight video games. Whereas this isn’t the kind of offense that airs it out for 300 yards a recreation (they rank seventeenth in passing yards per recreation), their effectivity is among the many finest within the NFL. Washington ranks:

Seventh in passer score (102.5)
twelfth in yards per try (7.5)
Fourth in dropback EPA (0.211)
eleventh in success price (49.6%)

What’s odd about that the majority latest “successful” six-game stretch is that Daniels’ yards per try has really plummeted over that point. He’s averaged 7.5 Y/A all season, however over the past six video games, that’s down to five.9, suggesting a number of the effectivity is definitely considerably down. It’s solely bolstered by greater landing numbers, as Daniels has thrown 15 touchdowns over the past six video games, in comparison with simply 12 touchdowns within the earlier 12 video games. When it comes to general success price, he’s nonetheless hovering proper round 50%—his season-long common, which is sweet sufficient to squeeze in to the underside of the top-10.

The success of the Commanders’ offensive line depends on which metrics you belief. They rank twenty second in PFF move blocking grade and are tied for the seventh-most sacks allowed (50). However ESPN ranks them ninth in move block win price, they usually’ve allowed the ninth-lowest strain price, per NFL Professional. I believe it’s most likely secure to say that Daniels could also be a bit answerable for the low strain price however excessive sack price, however there are vulnerabilities within the offensive line, significantly at left sort out. Third-round rookie Brandon Coleman has allowed 9 sacks this 12 months, per PFF—greater than all however three offensive tackles in soccer.

When it comes to receivers, the majority of Washington’s manufacturing comes from two targets: Terry McLaurin (1,096 yards, 13 TDs) and Zach Ertz (654 yards, 7 TDs).

What the hell am I purported to do with this? Accidents clearly caught as much as the Lions of their first matchup towards the Bears on Thanksgiving, after which every part is completely high quality once more when Alex Anzalone comes again? That’s actually not a statistically sound conclusion based mostly on a single recreation, however their efficiency towards the Vikings was actually excellent—even when the Rams did the very same factor to them final week.

I’m not going to go heavy into the information right here as a result of it’s exhausting to know what to belief proper now—and you may see just about every part it’s essential to in that chart. The move protection was unbelievable for the primary 2.5 months of the season, it fully fell aside for 5 weeks, and now it might or is probably not again.

Anzalone is actually a difference-maker—particularly when you think about he was being changed by LB6, not LB2 or LB3. However can he actually stabilize every part?

Earlier than we get into the benefit, I do need to share one statistic that has shaken me to my core… in a great way:

I don’t understand how that’s presumably true, however Aaron Glenn is a wizard if Subsequent Gen Stats is correct.

Participant to look at: Ertz. The veteran tight finish has turn into a safety blanket for Daniels, significantly within the crimson zone. Ertz has six touchdowns in his final eight video games. He’s additionally produced 38 first downs for the Commanders, which is Ertz’s highest manufacturing since 2019!

Benefit: Draw. I don’t know. I do not know. Whereas I don’t suppose it’s seemingly Daniels throws for 300 yards and three touchdowns towards this protection, I can’t fully rule it out, both. Might Aaron Glenn develop a strain plan that confuses Daniels? Yeah, actually. Why not? There’s simply an excessive amount of uncertainty and peculiar, inconsistent knowledge right here for me to provide you with a conclusion. Right here’s an instance of inconsistent knowledge:

For this reason they play the sport on the sphere and never within the spreadsheets. If I needed to give a hunch, I believe the Commanders could possibly transfer the ball somewhat bit via the air, however I don’t count on loads of explosive performs.

Commanders run offense (seventh) vs. Lions run protection (tenth)

There’s not a lot uncertainty right here. The Commanders have top-of-the-line speeding assaults in soccer. Positive, their numbers are juiced up by Daniels’ league-leading quantity of scrambles, however that’s all in play this week. Daniels leads the group with 891 speeding yards, however Brian Robinson (799, 4.3 YPC) is just not far behind him.

Mix all of it and the Commanders rank fourth in rush EPA, third in success price, and fourth in yards per carry. Rattling the DVOA rating, it is a top-five speeding assault. The offensive line is one other combined bag, relying on metrics. They’re twenty seventh in PFF run blocking grade, however second in ESPN run block win price. So… go determine.

The one factor to think about—and it pains me to say this—is that they run a ton of designed quarterback runs on the identical degree that Josh Allen and the Payments do. Daniels has 62 designed runs this season, which is definitely considerably greater than Allen (50). Solely Lamar Jackson (79) and Hurts (87) have extra. Detroit has significantly struggled with these (suppose again to Allen, Anthony Richardson).

I wouldn’t pay a lot consideration to that remaining cell. Detroit gave up one 58-yard run, and held the Vikings to only 62 yards on 18 carries the remainder of the day (3.4 YPC).

Detroit has undoubtedly been extra vulnerable to poor defensive video games towards the run than they had been final 12 months, but it surely’s extra good than unhealthy. For the season, they rank seventh in rush EPA, fourth in success price, and twenty second in yards per carry allowed. To be truthful, although, Detroit’s EPA and success price drop to thirteenth and sixth if simply wanting on the again half of the season.

Participant to look at: Lions’ EDGE gamers. With containment being key this week, strain will probably be on the Lions’ edge defenders to maintain Daniels caged in. PFF hasn’t been significantly form to the group’s wholesome edge defenders: Za’Darius Smith has a 57.1 PFF run protection grade, Al-Quadin Muhammad is at 48.7, Josh Paschal: 62.5.

Benefit: Commanders + 2. Washington has rushed for over 200 yards six occasions this season. They’re extraordinarily harmful, and will very properly replicate what the Payments did a couple of weeks again. Anzalone’s return ought to assist settle that down a bit, however Detroit stays very beat up and susceptible on their defensive position, and Washington’s use of misdirection may actually problem their self-discipline.

Final recreation’s prediction:

For sure, I used to be fully caught off guard by the Lions’ defensive efficiency, so my 38-35 Lions prediction seems foolish, regardless of being “correct” each general and towards the unfold (Lions -2.5). I’m unsure how prepared I’m to purchase in on the Lions’ defensive points being mounted, however this week will probably be simply as a lot of a check towards a top-10 offense.

Within the remark part, cln_pwr2 FINALLY received the win with their weekly 30-10 prediction (remaining rating was 31-9). Right here’s your prize:

Can we simply take a second to understand that in the course of the month of January, the Crimson Wings are 6-1 [Editor’s note: And just beat the defending Stanley Cup Champions in their own barn on national TV!], the Pistons are 7-2, and the Lions are the Divisional Spherical. And that’s all coming off an unimaginable run from the Tigers.

This recreation’s prediction:

The Lions come out with only a +2.5 benefit, however with my uncertainty in regards to the Lions’ move protection, that might simply be made up by one other sturdy recreation from Daniels. He’s coming off one among his finest profession video games, so I wouldn’t low cost it.

However when it comes right down to it, the Lions offense has been higher, extra constant, and extra explosive than Washington all 12 months, and Detroit’s protection—whereas not at their finest proper now—has been good way more usually than the Commanders. The present trajectory of those groups has me believing it’ll be nearer than the unfold, however the Lions ought to nonetheless come out on high. Lions 34, Commanders 27.