Professional Soccer Focus (PFF) launched its 2026 QB Annual. It’s a deep dive into all issues analytics surrounding quarterback efficiency final season and over their careers.
There have been some essential takeaways for Matthew Stafford by way of modifications that elevated his recreation en path to the MVP award in 2025. The query shifting ahead is which items are sustainable and which can be primed for regression.
Let’s dive into the annual and put its predictive powers to good use.
With the Rams deploying heavier personnel and addition tight ends extra usually final season, Stafford moved from a closely shotgun quarterback to taking part in underneath heart extra usually than anybody. In some methods it is a scheme change that despatched the NFL again to the early 2000’s. It’s actually one of the best ways to marry the run and cross video games, and we frequently noticed tight ends and receivers disguised as blockers solely to leak out into routes. It’s the most recent and most spectacular wrinkle from Sean McVay and it labored to nice impact for Stafford.
Stafford was the quarterback most frequently underneath heart on a share foundation and the least usually within the shotgun based on PFF:
And the Rams went to this nicely actually because it labored. Stafford’s PFF passing grade was higher underneath heart than within the shotgun. He’s among the finest processors left within the league, and he’s a quarterback of an period passed by. It is sensible how he’d excel on this side whereas different quarterbacks don’t have the identical depth of background.
Turnovers are primed for regression
The trail to successful MVP honors within the NFL is slender. It takes just one dangerous recreation for the media to leap on board and derail a marketing campaign. Stafford was in a position to keep the course and stave off the dangerous recreation.
It additionally took a bit luck for that to occur.
Based on PFF’s interception modeling, Stafford threw almost seven fewer interceptions than anticipated. Two of those got here from turnover-worthy performs (doubtless dropped interceptions, and many others.) and 4.5 have been purely luck by means of non-turnover-worthy throws the place nothing went fallacious (receivers batting well-thrown balls to defenders, and many others.).
Whereas Stafford completed with single-digit interceptions with 9, he actually ought to have been nearer to 16 when all stated and executed. Moreover, opposing defenders dropped 9 of Stafford’s would-be interceptions. That is extra “luck” that’s not captured within the mannequin.
Appearances matter in MVP campaigns. Generally the celebs have to align. They did for Stafford in 2025. That might all change in 2026 at no fault to the quarterback. That is an space the place Stafford is due for regression.
Completely correct usually, however not at all times constant
Stafford’ accuracy is a subject I’ve written about usually. The analytics surrounding his efficiency on this space might be head-scratching.
The QB Annual nails the unusual juxtaposition. Stafford throws completely aimed passes as usually as some other quarterback. He additionally misses throws at a price that places him in direction of the underside of the NFL.
Whereas the Rams had one of the vital explosive passing video games within the league final 12 months, they weren’t at all times environment friendly. Davante Adams obtained a really excessive quantity of targets however on common caught simply certainly one of each two passes. LA is leaving loads of meat on the bone. That is an space the place they fortunes have potential to enhance into the brand new 12 months.
There are areas the place we might doubtless see Stafford regress in 2026 solely due to statistical chances. In the identical vein, there are definitely areas the place the Rams offense can take a notable step ahead.
The underneath heart passing recreation is one thing McVay ought to increase on as Los Angeles continues to embrace heavier personnel packages. That is one thing Stafford uniquely does nicely and he’s the engine that makes the machine go.
However Stafford might simply play simply in addition to he did final 12 months just for his numbers and interception totals to be worse in 2026. That might single-handily derail one other MVP marketing campaign and may very well be sufficient to spoil LA’s Tremendous Bowl expectations.
