Pewter Report’s PR Roundtablepresented by PrizePicks
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A brand new Pewter Report Roundtable debuts each Tuesday on PewterReport.com. Every week, the Pewter Reporters deal with one other powerful Bucs query. This week’s immediate: What’s the Bucs’ Ceiling For Wins This Season?
Scott Reynolds: Tampa Bay Tops Out At 10 Wins Beneath Todd Bowles
Do I believe this Tampa Bay group is able to profitable greater than 10 video games? With this proficient roster? Sure. However expertise doesn’t all the time win video games. Typically it comes right down to the best gameplan, good in-game teaching, the best changes and clock administration. Teaching issues. If it didn’t then NFL groups would simply have gamers and no coaches.
Todd Bowles has been the top coach of the Bucs since 2022 after Bruce Arians abruptly retired and turned the group over to him after free company and earlier than the NFL Draft. Over the previous 4 years Bowles has received three division championships, however has topped out at 10 wins. In his first 12 months, the Bucs went 8-9 in Tom Brady’s ultimate season within the NFL. Then Tampa Bay confirmed enchancment and completed atop the NFC South once more with a 9-8 document.
Bucs head coach Todd Bowles – Picture by: USA Immediately
A ten-7 document adopted in 2024, adopted by a disappointing 8-9 season final 12 months that noticed Tampa Bay give up the division crown to Carolina, which additionally completed 8-9, however received the NFC South attributable to a tiebreaker. The Bucs reside within the league’s worst division and have for 4 years now. Just one group has recorded double-digit wins since 2022 and that was the 2024 Buccaneers with 10 victories.
In eight years as a head coach, together with 4 seasons in New York with the Jets, Bowles has topped out at 10 wins twice. He first did that in 2015, his first season because the Jets head coach, with a 10-6 document. In simply two seasons as a head coach in Seattle, Mike Macdonald received a Tremendous Bowl with a 14-3 document final 12 months. In his first season as an NFL head coach, Jacksonville’s Liam Coen inherited a 4-13 Jaguars group and went 13-4 en path to profitable the AFC South in 2025.
Annually we’ve seen the Bucs lose not less than two video games the group had no enterprise dropping attributable to poor teaching. Final 12 months it was dropping at dwelling to a 3-10 Saints group, 24-20, after which blowing a 14-point lead with 10 minutes left towards a Falcons group that was 5-9, 29-28 on Thursday Evening Soccer. Nice groups don’t lose to lesser groups, and that’s why the Buccaneers haven’t been nice below Bowles. They discover a solution to blow a sport or two that they haven’t any enterprise dropping. Because of this, I really feel like Tampa Bay’s ceiling is 10 wins so long as Bowles as the top coach – till he proves in any other case.
Matt Matera: Bucs Can Win 12 Video games If They Get The Proper Bounces
The Bucs seem like a great group “on paper.” They’ve expertise all throughout the roster, particularly on the offensive facet of the ball. If offensive coordinator Zac Robinson faucets into what quarterback Baker Mayfield can do finest together with having an excellent receiver room, plus having a wholesome operating backs and an offensive line, this group can rating 30 factors a sport. Do this and Tampa Bay will probably be in every contest.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield – Picture by: Cliff Welch P/R
Ideally, the ceiling is being reached with huge assistance on the defensive facet, too. It both means Todd Bowles is pushing the best buttons for the primary time in a very long time, or rookie Rueben Bain Jr. seems to be a stud edge rusher. This requires a bounce again from the group’s cornerback room, or simply committing to one of the best gamers beginning, like Jacob Parrish. Get this cross rush going with Bain and Yaya Diaby and the Bucs ought to win extra video games.
It additionally issues who the Bucs play on the schedule. They need to go 6-0 towards the NFC South, however they received’t. For functions of reaching 12 wins, let’s say they go 4-2 within the division. Tampa Bay doesn’t have as many “easier” video games this 12 months, however the Browns, Vikings and Steelers look extra favorable. That’s seven wins with video games towards the Packers, Cowboys, Bears, Lions, Chargers and Ravens that I name “coin flip games” – that means neither a win nor a loss could be stunning.
Would the Buccaneers come out on prime in all of those video games? No in all probability, not. And I received’t be predicting that they win 12. However there’s no query that the potential is there. It’s only a matter of the Bucs placing the completed product collectively as a group on the sector – fairly than simply on paper.
Adam Slivon: I Nonetheless Imagine This Bucs Crew Has A 12-Win Ceiling
Earlier than final season, the Pewter Report workers was hopeful in what the Bucs would accomplish. Three of us predicted Tampa Bay would go 11-6, whereas Josh Queipo and I picked the group to go 12-5. Coming off a 10-win 12 months in 2024, the sky gave the impression to be the restrict, and so they began out 6-2 in 2025. It led to abysmal trend, however that doesn’t imply the ceiling is capped for the heights they may attain.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and HC Todd Bowles – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
Loads of issues must work out and for there to be sudden breakout gamers. What separates good groups from nice ones oftentimes is the power to win shut video games. To that finish, the group stayed aggressive in nearly each sport final season. The Bucs misplaced six video games by six or much less factors, and the one losses they suffered that have been better than a landing have been to the Lions, Payments, and Rams.
Given all of the expertise that was added to enhance the group’s weaknesses, even marginal upgrades may flip just a few of these shut losses into wins and assist Tampa Bay get again to double-digit wins. The NFC South stays up for grabs, and sweeping or coming shut would make headway at reaching that ceiling. The schedule exterior of the division is extra aggressive, as they face the NFC North this 12 months along with groups just like the Chargers, Ravens, and Rams. It won’t be straightforward to safe victories, and it’ll take either side of the soccer stepping up.
The offense has a proficient assortment of weapons surrounding Baker Mayfield and top-of-the-line offensive strains when wholesome. There’s a probability they get again to being a prime 5 unit. It’s no secret the protection has to enhance and can decide how this group pans out. Reinforcements have been added at every degree, from beefing up the defensive position, upgrading the surface cross rush, including two starting-caliber linebackers, and getting youthful secondary coaches to supply a spark.
One can discuss themselves into issues panning out, however it is going to take all of the items proving they match. In the event that they do, the Bucs have an opportunity at recording a dozen wins and making critical noise within the NFC.
Bailey Adams: The Bucs’ Ceiling Might Be 11 Wins
We’re speaking ceiling, proper? As in what’s the best-case state of affairs for the 2026 Bucs? I believe it’s 11 wins. You may increase an eyebrow and marvel how a group that hasn’t received greater than 10 video games since its 13-win 2021 marketing campaign and simply completed final season on a 2-7 stretch may pull that off. That’s truthful. However there’s a path.
On the one hand, we’ve talked quite a bit about the concept that the Bucs want their offense to return to its 2024 ranges and that being the important thing to getting again to double-digit wins in 2026. However keep in mind 2024? Tampa Bay nonetheless had that midseason lull, one which was stuffed with accidents.
Bucs OC Zac Robinson – Picture by: Matt Matera/PR
So, what if Zac Robinson will get the offense again to the place his good buddy, Liam Coen, had it in 2024? And what if that occurs and 1.) the offense avoids that kind of harm disaster it had again then or 2.) the Bucs’ improved depth helps stop what that dropping stretch?
On the protection, Tampa Bay ought to have a greater cross rush than it’s had in years. The ceiling for the unit’s inside linebackers is increased than what it’s been in recent times, too, and whereas the secondary has its query marks, it’s a bunch with a whole lot of potential. Possibly it will possibly stay as much as that potential.
All of that’s best-case state of affairs kind of stuff, and after I have a look at the schedule by way of that lens, I get to 11 wins because the ceiling. Ceiling for the primary 4 video games? I’d go 3-1. For the following 4? Once more, 3-1. Cut up the Bears and Lions video games, go 2-2 towards the Panthers, Chargers, Ravens and Rams. Take two of the opposite three video games (Saints twice, Falcons away). That’s 11, and that feels just like the potential excessive mark for this Bucs group.
Josh Queipo: 11 Wins Seams Affordable In Tampa Bay
With a beat-up offensive line, a cratering protection and a play-caller studying on the fly in offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard, the Bucs nonetheless managed eight wins in 2025. With an intact offensive line, a barely extra productive protection and a greater offensive coordinator calling performs in Liam Coen, they put collectively 10 wins in 2024.
Now every little thing wasn’t rosy that season both. The midseason swoon nonetheless bit head coach Todd Bowles and the Krewe. And the receiving corps was Cade Otton and the Pips. However they nonetheless mustered double-digit wins.
Bucs HC Todd Bowles – Picture by: Cliff Welch/PR
Do I believe Zac Robinson is the second coming of Coen? No, I don’t. However I do suppose he represents a center floor between Coen and Josh Grizzard. With out Mike Evans the receiving corps is worse on paper than it was in 2024. However it’s additionally higher than the four-game stretch the group was with out Chris Godwin Jr. and Mike Evans attributable to extra proficient depth. If the offensive line can preserve higher well being than they did final 12 months there are further wins available.
And I genuinely imagine that is one of the best assortment of defensive expertise Todd Bowles has had in 4-5 years. These can all make up for the coordinator deficit from a 12 months in the past and provides the group a barely increased ceiling than the seventy fifth percentile consequence I imagine 2024 turned out to be. That group had a ceiling of 12-13 wins. This group barely much less with 11 wins, however nonetheless a lot good.
