Final 12 months, we crunched the numbers and tried to foretell the overs and unders for the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs’ protection. And to say that we had been off in our predictions could be placing it mildly.
As an example, in 2025, we had been bullish on the cross rush and set the workforce’s sack whole at 49, regardless of the Chiefs coming off a 2024 season through which they generated solely 39 sacks. As an alternative of taking the massive step ahead we anticipated, Kansas Metropolis’s cross rush took one other step again, securing simply 33 sacks in 2025.
The truth is, the one line the Chiefs exceeded expectations on was the metric that truly issues on the finish of the day — factors allowed per sport. We set the road at 20 factors per sport, and the Chiefs got here in below at 19.3.
Final season, we did our greatest to floor our predictions in historic knowledge, however the consequence was lower than correct, so this 12 months I’m following a stronger metric: my intestine and the workforce’s vibe.
So let’s dive in and see the place we land on how the protection will do that 12 months.
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – NOVEMBER 20: Chris Jones #95 of the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs runs on the sphere throughout pregame introductions previous to the sport towards the Philadelphia Eagles at GEHA Subject at Arrowhead Stadium on November 20, 2023 in Kansas Metropolis, Missouri. (Picture by David Eulitt/Getty Pictures) Getty Pictures
Chris Jones led the workforce in sacks in 2025 with seven. That just about tells you all the things you should learn about this workforce’s cross rush final 12 months. Fashionable knowledge would say that, with the added funding within the cross rush within the draft (deciding on defensive linemen in each the primary and second rounds), coupled with the extraordinarily low 2025 quantity, it will likely be laborious for the Chiefs to regress any additional than the workforce did final 12 months.
However nonetheless, nothing suggests an enormous soar in 2026. It’s nonetheless clear how rookie edge rusher R Mason Thomas matches in with what the Chiefs wish to do on protection, and defensive sort out Peter Woods wants to indicate extra consistency to be greater than an inconsistent participant who flashes after which disappears for lengthy stretches of time.
Chris Jones wants extra assistance on the inside, and George Karlaftis wants somebody who can set the sting reverse of him and preserve containment so he doesn’t must attempt to chase the QB all around the yard.
So the largest wildcards heading into this season for me are edge rusher Ashton Gillotte and defensive sort out Omarr Norman Lot. If every of those guys can provide you even 4 to 5 sacks this 12 months, then you’ve an opportunity at getting sufficient on the entire to see a bump of 10 sacks within the numbers this season.
And name me a homer, however I feel it might occur.
The Chiefs haven’t topped 40 sacks in a season since 2023. That’s a foul stat. And though I don’t assume this workforce will out of the blue lead the league in sacks, it’s laborious to speculate as a lot because the Chiefs have within the cross rush and never see at the least some outcomes.
PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA – APRIL 23: Mansoor Delane of LSU celebrates after being chosen sixth general choose by the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs throughout Spherical One of many 2026 NFL Draft at Acrisure Stadium on April 23, 2026 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Picture by Emilee Chinn/Getty Pictures) Getty Pictures
Former Chiefs cornerback Trent McDuffie could have been an All-Professional, however he was removed from a turnover machine. Quite the opposite, in his remaining season at California, cornerback Nohl Williams led all of faculty soccer in interceptions. Now coming into his second season within the league, the Chiefs can be relying on him to step up and provides them related numbers on the professional stage.
The Chiefs additionally traded up within the first spherical to pick out cornerback Mansoor Delane with the sixth general choice. Delane profiles as a set-and-forget lockdown nook. The Chiefs additionally chosen cornerback Jadon Canady within the fourth spherical to fortify their secondary, and introduced in security Alohi Gilman by way of free company. All issues thought of, I really feel just like the Chiefs must high their 2025 variety of 10 interceptions.
Projected interceptions: 12
I feel the Chiefs’ current funding within the secondary pays dividends this 12 months, as we see the start of Kansas Metropolis’s “no-fly zone.” I feel we’ll bear in mind this as one of many Chiefs higher secondaries in years to come back.
Picture by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Pictures
Compelled Fumbles are in all probability some of the neglected abilities in soccer, and whereas they’re utterly preventable, studying the best way to punch the ball out or strip the ball from the quarterback is a talent that’s extra than simply dumb luck.
The Chiefs weren’t nice at this in 2025, forcing solely seven fumbles over the course of the 12 months. And with out proof that Kansas Metropolis has made this a degree of emphasis this season, it’s laborious to foretell the unit will do any higher than final season.
Projected pressured fumbles: 7
Of all of the predictions up to now, that is the one which has the best capability to be flipped utterly. This workforce might simply have 5 extra pressured fumbles, and it wouldn’t shock me.
Picture by Nick Tre. Smith/Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Pictures
This one seems like a flip of the coin. There’s a lot that has to go proper for a workforce to attain a defensive landing. It’s in all probability why the Chiefs didn’t have any in 2025.
Projected defensive touchdowns: 1
You by no means know when it’s going to occur, or if it’s going to occur, however I really feel prefer it has to occur at the least as soon as this season.
Soccer: Kansas Metropolis Chiefs Leo Chenal (54) and George Karlaftis (56) in motion, have a good time on the sphere vs Buffalo Payments at Highmark Stadium. Orchard Park, NY 11/2/2025 CREDIT: Erick W. Rasco (Picture by Erick W. Rasco/Sports activities Illustrated by way of Getty Pictures) (Set Quantity: X164794 TK1)
In 2025, the Chiefs held opponents to 19.3 factors per sport, regardless of their sack and interception numbers regressing. It seems like 2026 is the tipping level. The 2025 season was fluky in some ways, and the way the workforce performs in 2026 will set the tone for the protection over the subsequent couple of years.
Projected factors allowed per sport: 19.3
If it’s one factor the Chiefs have been good on the final couple of years, it’s maintaining opposing groups out of their endzone. I’m taking the below.
