Final yr, we crunched the numbers on the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs’ offense at Arrowhead Pleasure, making an attempt to foretell the overs/below traces for statistical totals. Whereas we have been nearer than we have been with the protection, we under no circumstances hit the nail on the top in our predictions.
We have been bullish on practically each single metric in 2025, apart from dashing touchdowns, which we have been accurately skeptical of: we took the below on a complete of 17.75 dashing touchdowns.
Nonetheless, we have been fairly a bit off from our prediction that quarterback Patrick Mahomes would throw over 29 touchdowns. Whereas accidents positively performed a task in that missed prediction, it wasn’t the one one we have been off on. We have been additionally off on our prediction that Kansas Metropolis would rating greater than 26.43 factors per recreation.
Final season, we did our greatest to floor our predictions in historic knowledge, however this yr I’m going to simplify issues and go together with a metric I’ve way more religion in: my intestine and the group’s vibe.
So let’s dive in and see the place we land on how the offense will do in 2026:
Dec 7, 2025; Kansas Metropolis, Missouri, USA; Kansas Metropolis Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a move in the course of the first quarter towards the Houston Texans at GEHA Discipline at Arrowhead Stadium. Necessary Credit score: Denny Medley-Imagn Photographs Denny Medley-Imagn Photographs
This part ought to simply learn “Patrick Mahomes touchdowns.”
I don’t assume there are lots of in Chiefs Kingdom who count on Justin Fields so as to add meaningfully to this complete (even when he does begin the primary couple of weeks of the season). In 2025, Fields threw simply seven touchdowns in 9 video games performed.
Most seasons, I’d say that Mahomes is the wildcard in all of this, being able to succeed in into his bag of tips and drop 5 touchdowns on an opponent on the drop of a hat. He nonetheless does.
He’s additionally recovering from a torn ACL.
There are additionally different issues on this group, like truly having a legitimately explosive working recreation. The addition of free agent backs Kenneth Walker and rookie Emmett Johnson might minimize into the variety of passing touchdowns the Chiefs have within the purple zone.
The third unknown in all of that is the Chiefs’ receiving corps, which underperformed in 2025 and doesn’t look meaningfully higher in 2026. This yr’s offense has one broad receiver who spent the offseason rehabbing a knee damage in jail, and an undersized Xavier Worthy who struggled to remain wholesome in 2025. These are these “proven” playmakers.
Projected passing touchdowns: 24
The Chiefs would have undoubtedly surpassed this mark if Mahomes began all 17 video games in 2025. However he didn’t, and we don’t know if he’ll in 2026. This, combined with the poaching the working backs are positive to do within the purple zone, has me feeling skiddish about this stat line this yr.
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – JUNE 08: Kenneth Walker #9 of the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs on set throughout a manufacturing shoot at The College of Kansas Well being System Coaching Advanced on June 08, 2026 in Kansas Metropolis, Missouri. (Picture by Aaron M. Sprecher/Getty Photographs) Getty Photographs
The Chiefs have been twentieth within the NFL in dashing touchdowns in 2025, and this was largely as a result of scrapping for soiled yards in short-yardage conditions was the one factor working again Kareem Hunt nonetheless excelled at in 2025. With out his gritty, “old man” power effort within the trenches, this quantity might have been worse.
It has been a Freaky Friday stage switch-a-roo forward of this season. Walker was one of the best free agent in the marketplace, after which the entrance workplace drafted a man in Johnson who I had tied for second in my pre-draft working again rankings. On high of this, the group signed an electrical depth piece in Emari Demarcado.
All of this could translate into the Chiefs taking a good soar in dashing touchdowns this season.
The unknown variable on this equation is whether or not Mahomes will nonetheless be keen (and allowed) to scramble and sacrifice his physique for a handful of dashing touchdowns on his surgically repaired knee.
Projected dashing touchdowns: Over 20
I don’t assume head coach Andy Reid goes to let Mahomes scramble as a lot as he has in years previous. That being mentioned, it’s unimaginable to know if Mahomes will help himself. Even when Mahomes is out of the equation, I’m so bullish on this backfield and the return of offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy that this looks like a straightforward “over.”
KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI – DECEMBER 14: Rashee Rice #4 of the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs runs with the ball in the course of the fourth quarter of the NFL soccer recreation towards the Los Angeles Chargers at GEHA Discipline at Arrowhead Stadium on December 14, 2025 in Kansas Metropolis, Missouri. (Picture by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Photographs) Getty Photographs
The Chiefs truly hit the over on this class in 2025, towards our prediction of 49.
Mockingly, if this quantity jumps in 2026, I don’t assume it is going to be largely resulting from our broad receivers. Certain, receiver Tyquan Thornton has a handful of huge performs in him, however I believe the distinction this season is that Kansas Metropolis has some very proficient receiving backs on this roster, and it’s not onerous to think about an extra dozen or so display passes breaking for 20 yards.
Projected passes over 20 yards: No vital change
I believe the Chiefs will likely be higher in practically each manner in 2025, apart from explosive performs. I believe this offense goes to methodically transfer the ball and lean into Reid’s West Coast roots.
JACKSONVILLE, FLORIDA – OCTOBER 06: (L-R) Travis Kelce #87 and Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs rejoice a landing towards the Jacksonville Jaguars in the course of the second quarter at EverBank Stadium on October 06, 2025 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Picture by Mike Carlson/Getty Photographs) Getty Photographs
Purple-zone landing effectivity
Final season: 57.6% (14th in NFL)
See all the things I’ve written concerning the working backs.
Projected red-zone landing effectivity: Not less than 65%
The Chiefs are going to dominate within the purple zone.
GLENDALE, ARIZONA – FEBRUARY 12: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs talks with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy in the course of the fourth quarter towards the Philadelphia Eagles in Tremendous Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium on February 12, 2023 in Glendale, Arizona. (Picture by Christian Petersen/Getty Photographs) Getty Photographs
Final season: 21.3 factors (twenty first within the NFL)
This quantity was tanked a bit by the way in which the Chiefs completed the season, with simply 56 factors over their final 5 video games. If Mahomes can keep wholesome and the working recreation is pretty much as good as we predict it’s going to be, 2025 would be the exception and never the brand new norm.
Projected scoring this yr: Over 24.5 factors per recreation
If the Chiefs had scored 24 factors in each recreation in 2025, the ultimate file would have been 12-5. I believe it’s a aim that’s inside attain.
Would you say “over” or “under” to any of those projected statistical totals? Tell us within the feedback.
