Every Wednesday morning I’ll cowl 4 areas as they apply to Tampa Bay: 1. a brief movie breakdown, 2. a finance angle, 3. a glance ahead at what’s to return, and 4. a little bit of enjoyable.
This week I’m centering all 4 areas on one of many largest wild playing cards on the Bucs roster: large receiver Jalen McMillan
Movie: Jalen McMillan’s Burgeoning Breakout
Seventeen. That’s what number of video games Bucs large receiver Jalen McMillan has performed in his two-year profession. Accidents have robbed him of half of the potential common season video games he may have performed in. However over these 17 video games he has put up a strong line for a No. 3 receiver simply getting acclimated to the NFL with 73 targets, 49 catches, 639 yards and eight touchdowns. He has caught 67% of his targets, averaging 13 yards per catch and 1.35 yards per route run.
The tip of his 2024 was promising when he went off for twenty-four catches, 316 yards and 7 touchdowns over the ultimate 5 weeks of the season. Then, after trying sharp in coaching camp and early within the preseason, a devastating neck harm put his total 2025 doubtful.
Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
However he was capable of come again for the ultimate 4 video games of the season, and as soon as once more seemed actually good in a restricted pattern measurement.
Now coming into his third yr within the league, McMillan could also be poised for a breakout. And all of it comes all the way down to a single ability that the Bucs are at the moment in search of within the wake of Mike Evans’ departure.
It’s a small pattern measurement, however thus far in his Bucs profession, McMillan has proven a capability to beat man protection. Professional Soccer Focus has him tracked at 125 routes in opposition to man with 15 catches on 23 targets for 247 yards and three TD. His 1.98 yards per route run in opposition to man is almost double his mark in opposition to zone, which sits at roughly 1.12.
It’s a zone-heavy league. A lot of receivers can succeed in opposition to it. However a man-beater is the rarer discover that turns out to be useful throughout the highest leverage moments in a recreation.
McMillan’s wins in man protection come at each stage of the sector. From screens to bombs, he has the pace and slipperiness to provide corners suits it doesn’t matter what a part of the sector he’s attacking. With a median depth of goal of 11.5 and a 140.8 passer score when focused in man protection, he’s a real weapon in an necessary a part of the sport.
That issues greater than ever. Neither Chris Godwin Jr. nor Emeka Egbuka has proven of late they will win in opposition to man the best way McMillan can. Egbuka, the breakout rookie, was swallowed up by man protection in 2025, catching simply seven of 27 targets at 0.91 yards per route run. That’s the actual downfield man position Evans simply vacated for San Francisco, and the roster has no apparent inheritor. McMillan is the closest factor to at least one, and he’s sitting third on the depth chart.
It additionally places him in a singular place throughout the idea of the play. Offensive coordinators wish to construct their route ideas with each a zone-beater and a man-beater in-built. And if McMillan is the group’s most dependable man matchup, at the least till rookie Ted Hurst will get in control, he could also be featured extra typically than any of us assume he’ll.
Three traits stick out to me once I watch McMillan. His footwork off the snap is unimaginable. He doesn’t have the footspeed and alter of route of Davante Adams, however it’s Davante Adams-esque. Due to that, he’s tough to jam off the road. Then when he will get to his stem, he has an entire host of physique twitches, fakes and nods that make it tough for corners to know precisely the place he’s headed. Due to this he creates loads of separation.
That is backed up by his common separation metric as tracked by Subsequent Gen Stats, the place he outpaced Godwin by 11% and Egbuka by 29%.
Add in his pace, which he slow-plays so typically, sneaking up on and previous safeties, and his enhancements final yr as a ball-winner who can win on the catch level by contact, and McMillan’s ceiling and profile has grown from a complementary Z receiver who wins in intermediate zones to a one-on-one winner who could make robust catches and play some X in Zac Robinson’s positionless scheme.
One space of McMillan’s recreation that I underestimated when he was a prospect was his skill to make tough catches by contact. It began displaying up late in ’24 and continued by his restricted ’25.
It additionally considerably raises his ceiling. pic.twitter.com/zsOKOpKlTg
And whereas pace is enjoyable to quote (simply have a look at our infatuation with 40-yard instances!), the extra translatable trait for profitable as a receiver is his skill to decelerate relatively than pace up. Deceleration is the quickest (pun meant) technique to lose a defender and discover area. And in that space, McMillan wins and wins typically.
Finance: Jalen McMillan’s Early Valuation
As Jalen McMillan enters his third yr within the league he has flashed some high-end traits, however every time he begins to pattern up, the season has ended or harm has robbed him of stacking these flashes into sustained success.
As such, if he had been obtainable on the open market proper now, he would command a relatively modest contract because of modest manufacturing.
Utilizing two-year manufacturing comps, the three current contracts that match McMillan’s profession begin are David Moore (2021), Devin Funchess (2020) and James Washington (2022). Every obtained paid off a two-year physique of labor very similar to his, and Moore grades because the closest match of the group. The common of these three offers, adjusted for 2026’s wage cap, is about $4.5 million per yr.
Inside this group he ranks third in most classes, catches, yards and yards per route run, whereas tying for first in touchdowns. At $4.5 million in immediately’s market, it might make him the second-highest paid participant within the group.
One issue the comps undersell is age. McMillan is 24.7. Each participant in that group signed at 26 or older, so he would hit the market with two further years of runway if he had been a free agent now and an ascending traits profile whereas the receiver market is booming.
Detaching from the comps and his metrics inside a bigger mannequin, I can see a group paying a premium for his potential of as much as $10 million per yr. The person-coverage trait, the youth and the unfinished breakout are what drive that quantity. A two-year, $20 million contract is the place I’ve his present market, with ample room to maneuver that determine upward if the well being lastly cooperates. We’ll see how his closing two seasons in Tampa Bay performs out.
Forecast: Jalen McMillan’s 2026 Manufacturing Line
Final week I took a stab at Emeka Egbuka’s 2026 stat line, the place he may be capable to enhance from his rookie yr. The receiver room is among the most intriguing place teams on your entire group. So, let’s hold the ball rolling by taking a stab at maybe the largest thriller within the room.
Taking his 17-game line and breaking it all the way down to a per-game foundation:
Routes – 27.9Targets – 4.3Receptions – 2.9Yards – 37.6TD – 0.47
I see some alternative for enchancment in two particular areas for Jalen McMillan headed into yr three that leads me to consider he’s in retailer for a robust season (supplied he stays wholesome).
The obvious is his quantity, and quantity is near the entire ballgame right here. Chart his 17 video games and the manufacturing tracks his route rely nearly one for one. In his wholesome full-time run to shut 2024 McMillan pushed into the low 30s and produced like a WR2. A 27.9 routes per recreation is a low threshold that I believe he’s going to clear by an excellent margin.
As probably the most established man-beater, and coming into the season because the clear No. 3 receiver, I believe this could balloon to 35 routes per recreation. That’s primarily a full-time workload, No. 3 label or not, and the Mike Evans departure is the rationale it’s on the desk.
And McMillan’s 15.4% profession goal share ought to see a modest improve in 2026 as nicely. A rise to 18% would take his targets per recreation from 4.3 to six.3. That’s an nearly 50% improve in targets!
Holding his catch fee regular takes his receptions from 2.9 to 4.25 per recreation. I count on McMillan’s yards per catch to stay steady whereas his landing fee is certain to regress from the present unsustainable 16% mark. League common for a receiver sits nearer to eight%, so I cut up the distinction and landed close to 12%.
That places my forecast for his 2026 per recreation stats at:
Routes – 35.0Targets – 6.3Receptions – 4.25Yards – 55.1TD – 0.52
Over a full 17-game season, that’s roughly 107 targets, 72 catches, 937 yards and 9 touchdowns. A real WR2 line, and one of the best season of his profession by a large margin.
The catch is the phrase “full.” He performed simply 4 video games final yr.
Neck accidents are scary. And let’s not neglect he missed a month in his rookie yr because of harm. So learn this projection on a sliding scale of availability.
At 12 video games, the extra reasonable touchdown spot given his historical past, you’re looking at roughly 661 yards and 6 scores. However the ceiling is tantalizing. Let’s hope McMillan can unleash that full yr development in 2026.
Enjoyable Fourth Down: Jalen McMillan – Late Season Weapon
I’ve talked about the flashes that Jalen McMillan has proven in his first two years with the Bucs. Most of these have come within the final month of the common season. And due to that he has proven himself to be one of many higher receivers in your entire league over the ultimate 4 weeks of the yr.
Check out the place his manufacturing ranks amongst all 50 qualifying receivers from Weeks 15 by 18 over the previous two seasons.
Targets – 39 (twenty eighth)Receptions – 32 (twenty fourth)Yards – 435 (18th)TD – 5 (4th)Yards Per Route Run – 1.98 (14th)QB Ranking – 131.4 (fifth)
Bucs WR Jalen McMillan – Photograph by: USA Right this moment
Have a look at the hole between these quantity ranks and people effectivity ranks. He was focused like a 3rd possibility within the passing recreation, however he completed like an alpha. His 5 touchdowns tie him with the likes of Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins and Terry McLaurin, and he obtained there on barely half their targets. These are bona fide No. 1 receivers.
McMillan’s 131.4 passer score when focused ranks fifth, and is in a cluster with DeVonta Smith and Tee Higgins – two of the highest No. 2 receivers within the recreation.
The quantity reveals he was nonetheless getting used like a 3rd receiver. The effectivity reveals how a lot room to develop is left on the desk.
And I wouldn’t put it previous new Bucs offensive coordinator Zac Robinson to assist McMillan’s progress in 2026 with much more alternatives.
