Every Wednesday morning I’ll cowl 4 areas as they apply to Tampa Bay: 1. a brief movie breakdown, 2. a finance angle, 3. a glance ahead at what’s to return, and 4. a little bit of enjoyable.
Bucs Movie
The Bucs took a size-speed specimen in extensive receiver Ted Hurst from Georgia State within the third spherical of the 2026 NFL Draft.
Hurst’s top (6-4) and 40 time (4.42 seconds) place him within the 91st and eightieth percentiles, respectively. Add in that he was a official playmaker for a Georgia State program that was legitimately not good, and there’s a really attention-grabbing profile to investigate.
Bucs WR Ted Hurst Photograph by: IMAGN Photos – David Butler II
However that very same bodily profile has its considerations. At 206 kilos, he’s lean for his top. And regardless of the spectacular 40 time, his 10-yard cut up was fairly common at 1.55 seconds. Add within the decrease stage of competitors and now you see why he was out there within the third spherical.
Watching his tape, listed here are my takeaways:
The true particular stuff in Hurst’s sport is how he wins downfield. Over the previous two seasons he has caught 42% of his targets of 20+ air yards. That’s an extremely excessive charge for such a low proportion kind of shot.
Hurst can spring free and get behind defenses together with his straightforward velocity, and when he does should take care of defenders who handle to maintain up, his ball monitoring expertise and powerful fingers on the catchpoint win the day as a rule. That’s supported by his insane 61% contested catch charge in faculty per Professional Soccer Focus.
You’ve got heard Ted Hurst has wonderful ball monitoring expertise. Exhibit’s A and B. The primary one is bananas when you think about the way in which he adjusts his route and the physique contortion on high of the monitoring. pic.twitter.com/B7iGfmc1yz
Mayfield is at his finest when he can get into an early rhythm with some straightforward buckets. We noticed that in 2024 in Liam Coen’s scheme, which is analogous to what Robinson is predicted to run.
Chris Godwin Jr. supplies one type of straightforward bucket together with his selection routes. Hurst can present a secondary possibility with some fast slants the place he makes use of his giant body to field out corners enjoying off protection. Mayfield doesn’t should throw an ideal ball for Hurst to haul within the cross and get a simple 6-8 yards on first down. And if the cross is ideal and the cornerback’s protection isn’t? He can take the cross for a home name attributable to his spectacular yards-after-catch (YAC) skill.
That’s the way you achieve additional snaps on the NFL stage.
You understand what else will get you additional snaps within the NFL? Contributing in different areas even when the ball isn’t coming your means.
Ted Hurst creating house for others as a vertical menace after which preserving the rating with the downfield block. pic.twitter.com/bXdBhZOInC
The function Hurst ought to occupy is the standard X receiver spot. That’s the boundary function Emeka Egbuka performed some final 12 months in Mike Evans’ absence and noticed uneven outcomes as a rookie. And it’s not a pure match for Godwin or Jalen McMillan, both. Hurst has the dimensions, velocity, and vertical-stretch profile to fit in there cleanly, and in doing so, he ought to give the remainder of the room extra space to function within the quick and intermediate areas.
The match query for Tampa Bay isn’t whether or not Hurst earns snaps in 12 months one. It’s whether or not the offense leans into him because the boundary X instantly or eases him in whereas working the offense as if it doesn’t have an X within the meantime. The tape exhibits he can deal with the function; the query is whether or not it interprets up at school as he performed at a non-Energy 4 faculty. Coaching camp will inform us whether or not Robinson thinks Hurst is able to do it in opposition to one of the best of one of the best.
Bucs Finance
Now that the Bucs are previous the 2026 NFL Draft, we are able to begin to have a look at their money place for 2027 and past. We all know the Glazers wish to hold money spending tied to the league-wide wage cap. With this 12 months’s cap touchdown at $301.2 million, an 8% soar in 2027 places the working price range round $325 million.
What’s Already On The Books In 2027
After accounting for the latest draft picks and undrafted free agent signings, the Bucs ought to have 46 gamers underneath contract for 2027 at a price ticket of round $183 million. Assuming a wage cap of $325 million, they’ve $142 million left in money at no cost brokers, draft picks, extensions, observe squad gamers and working room.
I’m going to estimate draft choose compensation at $35 million, working room at $7.5 million and observe squad compensation at $5.5 million. That leaves $94 million for contract extensions and free brokers.
That won’t seem to be a lot however watch how briskly it goes.
Bucs assistant GM Mike Greenberg – Photograph by: Cliff Welch/PR
Who Wants a New Contract in 2027
The 2023 draft class is the story right here. Three of that class’s starters are coming into the ultimate 12 months of their rookie offers in 2026, with outdoors linebacker Yaya Diaby, proper guard Cody Mauch, and a fifth-year possibility of $14.475 million on Calijah Kancey all coming due. Add quarterback Baker Mayfield, defensive sort out Vita Vea, and kicker Chase McLaughlin all coming off contract years in 2026 and you’ve got some important paydays to stability in opposition to a price range that’s now feeling tighter by the typed phrase. Mayfield alone is predicted to fetch an extension value at the very least $50 million per season.
I assume $94 million doesn’t purchase what it used to, does it?
The Bucs are going to want to make some laborious choices. Subsequent week I’ll element potential minimize candidates in 2027 to extend that $94 million in money house.
Bucs Forecast
The Bucs’ rookie mini-camp will probably be held from Might 8-10 this 12 months. It’s three days of the sort of soccer that will get over-interpreted on social media and under-interpreted by the workforce, and I’m not going to fake there’s a ton of aggressive soccer to investigate. What I’m going to be looking out for:
Ted Hurst’s Launch Package deal vs. Air
No pads, no contact, however Ted Hurst’s footwork off the road and the route stems in opposition to bag drills will inform you whether or not the Senior Bowl tape (the place he flashed in opposition to higher competitors) was actual or a fluke. He’s a 22-year-old rookie, which implies there may be loads of room for improvement. It’s a matter of how briskly his studying curve is.
Reuben Bain Jr.’s Motion Profile In OLB Drills
First-round picks at all times get essentially the most hyped protection. What I’m really searching for is how the teaching workers makes use of him: they talked about publish draft that they suppose Rueben Bain Jr. is flexible. Can we see that in how they’re asking him to arrange? Will he get up within the A spot? Will he drop into protection? Will he see a while lining up over a guard as a 3-technique defensive sort out along with lining up on the sting as an outdoor linebacker?
Bucs edge Rueben Bain Jr. – Photograph by: Jared Lennon – The College of Miami
Josiah Trotter’s Protection Drops
The discourse over center linebacker Josiah Trotter’s protection chops will fill the summer season months. For now, I wish to see his skill to flip his hips and canopy floor in zone. Jason Licht talked about on 95.7 WDAE on Tuesday that the Bucs’ second-round choose strikes nicely in house. That ought to present even in shorts and shells.
Can he transfer in house in opposition to NFL gamers? That’s the differentiator 12 months one for me.
Fourth Down Enjoyable
Fourth downs was the place drives went to die. Now, due to the analytics crowd that lastly obtained coaches to cease punting from the opponent’s 38, fourth downs are the place video games get determined, and so they’re enjoyable once more.
In that spirit, the Fourth Down Enjoyable part of this column is the place I’ll hold issues lighter. Count on spicier takes, weirder predictions, and the occasional dangerous joke – simply with rather less math and just a little extra enjoyable.
This week’s subject: rookie jersey numbers.
God, I hope Ted Hurst doesn’t hold No. 16. It’s not a large receiver quantity. Argue with a wall. Connor Bazelak at the moment has that quantity, so I stay hopeful. Calvin Johnson wore No. 81 for the Lions. I prefer it for Hurst.
Reuben Bain Jr. wants a single digit. Get out of right here with double digits for an alpha edge. He wore No. 4 at Miami however Chase “Money” McLaughlin has that locked up. You don’t mess with a prolific scorer like McLaughlin. Transfer up a digit and provides him No. 5.
Josiah Trotter has been lower than lovingly known as “K.J. Britt 2.0”. Naturally he must keep away from No. 52 in any respect prices. Or does he? Embrace the insanity, Josiah. Personal that quantity and make it the subsequent 50s moniker to get retired by the Bucs after an extended, profitable profession. Lean in!
Bucs ILB Josiah Trotter – Photograph courtesy of Missouri Athletics
Three calls – all are positive to be no-doubt house run predictions. Test again with me when the Bucs roster web page updates and we’ll see how I did.
Refunds out there in column type solely.
